| Best Bets | Race | Horse |
|---|---|---|
| Best Bet | R6 | No.3 Dual Pressure |
| Next Best | R5 | No.7 Zoupurring |
| Value | R4 | No.2 Vexatious Dancer |
Turf Talk:
- Racing on the course proper for the first time since Melbourne Cup Day today the rail will return to the True position for the first time since early October
- It is forecast for clear weather race day and in the lead up so expect the track to remain at a Good 4 through the meeting
- Generally a fair track so expect all runners get their chance to win if good enough to do so.
Stats that matter:
- Alysha Warren is an apprentice making good use of her claim of late, she is currently producing a winning strIke rate of 14% at a POT of +13.1% in her last 100 rides.
- Jake Toeroek continues to improve since returning from injury, he is currently riding at a strong 20% winning strike rate in his last 100 rides.
Race by race overview:
One of the more competitive finals on this program.On the quick back up are (3) Whiskey Joe & (1) Bootlegger who ran 1 & 2 last week. It was Bootlegger who got the upper hand in the race but Whiskey Joe had all the market support and gets a slightly different set up here today so feel that he can turn the tables.
(7) Harmonic Dancer took time to breakthrough for a maiden win but clearly has good talent, his last start win on Melbourne Cup Day was easy and he looks likely to be capable of progressing now.
(2) Golden Horizon had the stronger form earlier in the prep and may have had some excuses last start so expecting he can bounce back to winning form.
Selections:
(3) Whiskey Joe
(1) Bootlegger
(7) Harmonic Dancer
(2) Golden Horizon
Suggested Bet – No bet, looks a very open race so hard to split the top chances.
(1) Arugamama looks the clear stand out runner on recent form, she was going well here in SA before a competitive run in a stronger race at Flemington through the carnival. She rates highly in the field and for that will have a big weight, if she can handle that weight, she looks hard to beat.(6) Talisay has been hitting the line strongly behind the in-form Guru Warrior so looks likely to now appreciate the rise in trip to the 2500m.
(2) Capulet maps to likely lead this race so if he can push forwards and have this run at a steady tempo he should get every chance.
(8) Whatsanamegeorge was caught out wide in his last start and failed to threaten late, he maps for a much better run in this so expecting improvement.
Selections:
(1) Arugamama
(6) Talisay
(2) Capulet
(8) Whatsanamegeorge
Suggested Bet – No bet, Arugamama’s race to lose but she has to deal with the big weight which is the query
(7) Oxford Blue ran a close 3rd when resuming recently at Bordertown, he can be an improver 2nd up now and has previously won both 2nd up starts into his career. The race maps for not much speed so looks likely he can get forward and be in a strong position.
(4) Falaise exploded late last start to produce his 2nd win in a row. If there is a genuine tempo in this race again, he could be set up to run over the top.
(3) Imposing Suspect was the winner of the race that Oxford Blue resumed in at Bordertown, so he has the right form lines against this field to be winning again.
(2) Jilladora is a consistent type who is in solid form in a similar level of races of late but the 1600m trip will be what tests her here today.
Selections:
(7) Oxford Blue
(4) Falaise
(3) Imposing Suspect
(2) Jilladora
Suggested Bet – No bet, tempos and how this track is playing will be key to bet late.
Potentially a messy race map for some here.
(2) Vexatious Dancer is one of those runners that is drawn out wide but is coming in off a last start win and her form before that was in much stronger races, if she can get a position early and not be caught out wide, she should be every chance.
(5) The Magistrate looks the runner that may get run of the race towards the front of the field. He put in a disappointing effort last start and needs everything in his favour to see out a strong 1200m trip, but with the favourable race map and a light weight after an apprentice claim he looks an each-way hope.
(1) Free Beer has won two of his four starts this prep, had a tick over run last time at the 1000m and will be much better suited at the 1200m trip here today, would have preferred him on a wet track but he gets his chance again.
(12) Gusty Way has been around the mark in his last few starts and will need his best here but maps to be in a strong position in run to give himself every chance with a light weight.
Selections:
(2) Vexatious Dancer
(5) The Magistrate
(1) Free Beer
(12) Gusty Way
Suggested Bet – (2) Vexatious Dancer (Each-way)
(7) Zoupurring looks to be in career best form for this prep having won three of the four starts he has contested. He is undefeated from two starts over this track/distance range and again maps well from barrier 2 and looks the one to beat again in his current form.
(4) Sir Now rates highly and has had to deal with big weights in all runs this prep, he drops in grade having contested a Listed race at Flemington last time and was placed at Listed level last prep, if he can recapture that form he will be around the mark again.
(9) Mt Niseko is in good form as well, perhaps didn’t handle the heavy track when running at Flemington last time so expect he can bounce back in drier conditions today.
(5) Wiggum was a strong winner when resuming, he comes into this race fresh which will suit.
Selections:
(7) Zoupurring
(4) Sir Now
(9) Mt Niseko
(5) Wiggum
Suggested Bet – (7) Zoupurring (Win)
(3) Dual Pressure has been in good form so far this prep, ran close to the winners two starts ago in a strong Gawler Cup before winning last week to qualify for today’s race. He will rise slightly in trip which suits and drops 6kgs in weight which will suit late in what is expected to be a high-pressure race out in front.
(9) Hard Prince is on the quick back up and will likely appreciate a rise back to the 1600m trip here.
(1) Sir Kingsford rates highly and will likely put a good speed into this race but needs to handle a heavy weight due to his rating.
An expected quick tempo could suit the likes of (5) Stirrup Cup who likely gets back in the run but can be hitting the line hard with a light weight on his back.
Selections:
(3) Dual Pressure
(9) Hard Prince
(1) Sir Kingsford
(5) Stirrup Cup
Suggested Bet – (3) Dual Pressure (Win)
(5) Flaming Navy was an impressive winner at Balaklava two starts ago and was well supported to win his next start at this track but pulled up lame there. That was a forgivable performance so expect he can bounce back today.
(4) Collated has been in good form including an impressive win two starts back, he gets in with a light weight which suits but may need luck from a wide barrier.
(10) Tower Of Tuscany looks close to a breakthrough win having run into the placings in his last 3 runs. Those runs have been in similar fields to what he faces here today so expect he can go close again.
(2) Worsfold has run 2nd in his last two starts, needs everything to go his way to see out the 1800m trip but is in good enough form to be a winning chance in this level.
Selections:
(5) Flaming Navy
(4) Collated
(10) Tower Of Tuscany
(2) Worsfold
Suggested Bet – No bet, would have been keener to be with Flaming Navy if he had drawn a better barrier coming off a lame run
(3) Palm Of Jumeirah was an impressive winner last week to qualify herself for this final today. She went to a new peak and is in career best form this prep but the wide barrier could make things tougher than what is ideal for her.
(1) Mystic Wonder jumped as favourite in the race Palm Of Jumeirah won last week, she needs to overcome a big weight and a wide barrier here but in a moderate tempo race she can find a strong position early in the run.
(11) Misludi looks likely to get back in the run and will be doing her best work late in the race so rising to the 1200m trip 3rd up now looks ideal.
(8) Cielao wouldn’t surprise at big odds if she can get along out in front with a soft lead similar to what she got last start and she was a winner 3rd up last prep.
Selections:
(3) Palm Of Jumeirah
(1) Mystic Wonder
(11) Misludi
(8) Cielao
Suggested Bet – If Palm Of Jumeirah can replicate her effort last start, she will be hard to beat but gets no favours from a wide barrier
Tough betting race to finish the program with a handful of runners all close together at the top of the market.
(5) Overstrike was very impressive when winning by a big margin 1st up, he could improve enough to be winning again off the back of a performance like that.
(6) Richie D’amour was solid in a stronger race at Flemington last start. He will get back in the run from the wide barrier but usually does his best work late, look for him to be running through the line late.
(4) Murph has won two in a row now and maps well towards the inside so gets the chance to make it 3 in a row with a soft run.
(2) Big Watch has run into the placings in his last two starts and will be suited back to the 1200m today.
Selections:
(5) Overstrike
(6) Richie D’amour
(4) Murph
(2) Big Watch
Suggested Bet – No bet, tough race to finish with many of these going into the quaddie leg
