Betsy’s Set: Morphettville Parks Saturday

The Plan Of Attack:

Turf Talk:

• The rail goes out from where it was in the previous meeting. Rail position will be +3m 1000m-W/Post & True remainder.
• Expecting a soft rated track, likely a Soft 5 given no rain and drying conditions are forecast in the lead up to Saturday.
• As the rail gets pushed out on the Parks track, it becomes a greater advantage to settle on speed so expecting the advantage will be with horses that have a positive race map.

The Stats That Matter:

• Justin Pickering only has the one runner nominated for Saturday, but strikes often when competing at this track winning at 17.7% and an impressive Profit on Turnover of 65.1%.
• Victorian visitor Teo Nugent doesn’t venture across to Morphettville Parks often, but he has a strong strike rate at this track having ridden winners in 3 of his 5 rides at the track at a POT of 255.6%.

Race 1 – 2250m 

(1) Rabtat has done no wrong in his last 2 starts when winning both, in career best form but the step up in distance is the test. (5) Silent Emmy is flying, she has won two and run 2nd in two races in her last four starts, looks well supported again but untested over this 2250m. (4) High Society Girl drops in grade which could help her improve on recent efforts. (3) Sirius Black hit the line strongly over the 2400m last start, so is on runner you can trust should see out this trip.

(1) Rabtat
(5) Silent Emmy
(4) High Society Girl
(3) Sirius Black

Suggested Bet – No Bet. Only query on a few here are their form at the trip, but it looks very open.

Race 2 – 1950m

(3) Burning Bright has chased the inform Rabtat in her last two runs but gets the right set up here today to get her chance. Mapping well from an inside barrier and light at the weights. Victorian visitor (1) Active Duty was a solid winner last start, rising in trip today 3rd up looks a suitable task if he can run up to last start. (2) Capulet is a proven stayer who should find this race potentially a step down in grade from what she has been competing in of late, but track conditions are key as she is clearly best on dry tracks. (4) Titan Rising was an impressive maiden winner looking to rise through the grades. Could push forward and lead and be the one they need to catch.

(3) Burning Bright
(1) Active Duty
(2) Capulet
(4) Titan Rising

Suggested Bet – No Bet, Burning Bright looks the one to beat but comes in very short.

Race 3 – 1250m

(10) Fondled has rated well in her two starts so far into her career. She comes off the synthetic tracks and onto a softer track which is the small query but if she can handle this track, she maps to be prominent in run and take catching. (9) Bellezze was tough last start when sticking on well despite a wide run, can improve if she gets a softer run. (3) Ghazi makes his debut for a new stable, expect he will be better suited over more ground going forwards but expect to see him hit the line strongly. (6) Machinegun Mike was well supported last start but never a chance when missing the kick, he can bounce back with a better start.

(10) Fondled
(9) Bellezze
(3) Ghazi
(6) Machinegun Mike

Suggested Bet – Fondled (Win). Needs to handle this track, but expect she can progress.

Race 4 – 1000m

(4) Streetcar Fury is lightly raced and has been well supported in his two career runs to date. Comes into this race fresh and was solid in a recent trial so expect with the inside barrier he can be prominent and settle in a strong position and take catching. (10) Madam Jeanette maps well also here from the inside, she has had a freshen up since her disappointing last run but can bounce back down in grade. (1) Brave Action makes his debut for a new stable, he has drawn a wide barrier in this small field so potentially he will be looking to push forwards early and put speed into the race. (7) Don’tdoubtlayla resumes today and can strike fresh having won two of her four 1st up runs.

(4) Streetcar Fury
(10) Madam Jeanette
(1) Brave Action
(7) Don’tdoubtlayla

Suggested Bet – No Bet. It looks a high pressure race which was the undoing of Streetcar Fury last start so prefer to see him go around first.

Race 5 – 1250m

Two Victorian visitors in (5) Naval Academy & (6) Electric Tommy look the key runners in this race. Leaning towards (5) Naval Academy who comes in through stronger races including a last start 2nd at Moonee Valley. He maps to settle handy enough and is down in grade. (6) Electric Tommy looks one of the key leaders of the race so if the track is trending to favouring leaders, he may be best suited. (11) Anotherhouse fought on impressively last start to win, gets in here light at the weights so expect he should be strong late. (1) Karacasu wouldn’t surprise at big odds in a race at this level, he hasn’t won for some time now, but his form since then has been in stronger level of races so he could turn one on in a race of this level at a big price.

(5) Naval Academy
(6) Electric Tommy
(11) Anotherhouse
(1) Karacasu

Suggested Bet – Naval Academy (Win) looks well suited dropping in grade.

Race 6 – 1000m

(3) Kalasec closed off strongly last start when 1st up into his prep. Fitter for the run and expect he can get a similar run in this race. (2) Bristler looks the likely leader of the race so potentially best suited if the track is trending as expected. (11) Sea Of Lights makes her debut for a new stable, her two recent trials looked quite good but expecting her to be better suited over more ground. (4) Left Turn Clyde has run into some handy types in his last two runs so can be an improver today in a race that is a drop in grade.

(3) Kalasec
(2) Bristler
(11) Sea Of Lights
(4) Left Turn Clyde

Suggested Bet – No Bet. Kalasec can be hard to catch and gets back, would want to see the track playing fairly before considering a bet at his price.

Race 7 – 1400m

(10) Nasho generally likes to go out and put a strong tempo into the race out in front. Fitter 3rd up today, he drops in grade and is rising to the 1400m where he has had success previously. (4) Flashing Steel looks as if he maps for the best run of the race and getting back to the 1400m suits. (13) Tipsy Vixen gets in very light at the weights which can help have her hitting the line strongly late. (6) Podargoni surprised when winning at this track last time. He has won two of his last three now and is in good form.

(10) Nasho
(4) Flashing Steel
(13) Tipsy Vixen
(6) Podargoni

Suggested Bet – No Bet. Would have been keener if Nasho drew an inside barrier.

Race 8 – 1250m

(5) Sign From Above has run into some good horses in his last two starts but has performed well, this looks as if it is a step down in class which will be ideal for him and a positive ride from the inside barrier suits. (6) Charm Catcher looks to rise in grade for this today, she has won two of her three career runs and gets in light at the weights. (1) Express Guard resumes, he may be better suited over further ground going forwards, but perhaps has some extra class on a few of these. (15) Round Two looks to rise after a maiden victory, ignoring his 1st up run as he didn’t get much luck and he could surprise.

(5) Sign From Above
(6) Charm Catcher
(1) Express Guard
(15) Round Two

Suggested Bet – No Bet. Will maybe be keener on Sign From Above if Anotherhouse runs well earlier in the day.

Race 9 – 1400m

(4) Synchro put in a bad performance last start when fading after trying to land on speed on a track that didn’t suit. He resumes off a freshen up and gets back to a track he has had a strong record at particularly over this track/trip (4:3-0-0). (3) Il Cubo has placed in his last three runs on the synthetic, he can race up on speed from the inside barrier but does give weight away to the favourite. (15) Bad Detective showed improvement last start and can fly along with a light weight. (2) I Catchem Fox was a good winner 1st up before a brave effort last start when caught wide for majority of the race, needs to be tough again here today given the wide barrier he has to deal with.

(4) Synchro
(3) Il Cubo
(15) Bad Detective
(2) I Catchem Fox

Suggested Bet – Synchro (Win) gets an ideal set up and race map today.