Betsy’s Set – Morphettville
| Race | No. | Horse | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 4 | Ruled By Thieves E/W | Suited rising in trip after last start. |
| 6 | 7 | Super Alana | Consistent type with a favourable race map. |
| 8 | 13 | Splash Back | Profiles ideally rising in distance |
| 8 | 11 | Lingani E/W | In career best form and represents value |
| 9 | 6 | Another House | Two runs in a row with excuses. Forgive |
Track Pattern Outlook
- Track has played fairly of late with the average margin of winners from the leader at the 600m mark being 2.6L
- At the previous meeting here when the track was rated a soft and rail in the true, 7 of the 9 winners came from lanes 5, 6 or 7.
Key Morphattville Stats
- Last seasons leading jockey Rochelle Milnes continues her strong form currently sitting second in the standings. She is striking at 17% in her last 100 rides with a P.O.T of 28%.
- Victorian visitor Jordan Childs comes across to take a ride on the favourite in the feature race. He has a 19.4% Strike Rate with a POT of 30% when riding on this Morphettville Parks track.
Overview
Race 1
1/ Bacash
2/ Kalmana
4/ More Than Hope
3/ King Ramsis
(1) BACASH brings genuine 2YO form out of stronger Victorian races, and that gives him an edge over rivals who’ve mostly been plying their trade midweek. He should roll forward, and if he controls the race on speed he’ll take plenty of catching. The market hasn’t missed him, but he’s the clear yardstick here.
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 2
5/ Ruled By Thieves
8/ Broadbeach Miss
3/ Machine Gun Mike
6/ Tyga Tasta
(5) RULED BY THIEVES caught the eye last weekend – he pulled himself into the ground early but still ripped home with some of the fastest closing splits of the day. The quick back-up and rise in trip look perfect, and he only needs to relax to be in the finish. (8) BROADBEACH MISS keeps running well and maps to get a dream run again, making her the obvious danger.
Suggested Bet – RULED BY THIEVES (Each Way)
Race 3
4/ Peta’s Heart
1/ Exalted Fire
6/ Shisuta Bo
5/ Bolt By
(4) PETA’S HEART keeps turning up and delivering, her win last start another example of a mare in the right groove. She drops in nicely again at the weights and still has upside being lightly raced. (1) EXALTED FIRE was brave chasing the favourite last start and will put himself right in the race from a forward spot. (6) SHISUTA BO and (5) BOLT BY are both ready to improve as they stretch out in trip.
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 4
2/ I Catchem Fox
5/ The Guava
6/ Bit Of A Rebel
1/ Big Sue
(2) I CATCHEM FOX came back in style with a Mount Gambier win that rated almost as high as his career best. If he takes the expected step forward second-up, he’s very hard to beat – provided he jumps as clean as he did fresh. (5) THE GUAVA looks dangerous rising to 1400m, especially with that recent third behind Great Maximus stacking up as a solid form line. Expect (6) BIT OF A REBEL and (1) BIG SUE to take prominent positions on speed, which is rarely a bad spot at this track.
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 5
9/ Affaire Vue
3/ Hot Strut
2/ Beautiful Jewel
10/ Mrs Secombe
A really open contest where arguments can be made for plenty. (9) AFFAIRE VUE has been knocking on the door in similar races and gets another chance, though the draw hasn’t done him any favours. (3) HOT STRUT comes off a confidence-boosting win last week and although this is tougher, he’s clearly thriving. (2) BEAUTIFUL JEWEL has the class edge after an Oaks prep – she may just want more ground, but she’s one to follow. Don’t rule out (10) MRS SECOMBE, the Victorian visitor who can take a step forward second-up.
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 6
7/ Super Alana
2/ Zanthron
5/ Under And Over
12/ Thunder Shock
This sets up perfectly for (7) SUPER ALANA, who has produced her best runs when they’ve gone hard up front. With genuine speed engaged here, she should get the perfect sit and pounce late. (2) ZANTHRON has been a model of consistency, never far away and likely to lead them up. (5) UNDER AND OVER resumes with some smart trial form under a new trainer, while (12) THUNDER SHOCK takes a leap in grade but might just be up to it.
Suggested Bet – Super Alana (Win)
Race 7
1/ Willybeafactor
10/ Flowerdale
5/ Wine Barron
4/ Thermodynamic
(1) WILLYBEAFACTOR has been freshened and drops back to a winnable grade. He proved himself two back in a similar race, but from the wide draw he may be posted without cover – potentially basomes a bet if the track is suiting leaders . (10) FLOWERDALE looks dangerous coming out of stronger Victorian company and maps well. (5) WINE BARRON gets firmer ground after struggling on heavy, while (4) THERMODYNAMIC continues to be consistent in races similar to this and maps on speed again.
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 8
13/ Splash Back
11/ Lingani
5/ Great Maximus
2/ Dubai Poet
The feature Leon McDonald Stakes should be a cracking contest. (13) SPLASH BACK showed her quality last prep stringing wins together before resuming off a freshen in a 1200m Group 3, where she closed off strongly. This 1400m looks tailor-made and she’ll take beating. (11) LINGANI is flying and has attacked the line in her last two runs over shorter trips. The extra trip looks ideal and happy to have something on at what looks value. (5) GREAT MAXIMUS returns from Victoria with strong closing form, while (2) DUBAI POET is honest but drawn to need luck.
Suggested Bet – Splash Back (Win), saver Lingani (Win)
Race 9
6/ Anotherhouse
8/ Koratora
5/ Warparty
7/ Bad Detective
Plenty of interest late in the day with (6) ANOTHERHOUSE, who has had no luck in his last two, including pulling up lame last start. He maps beautifully here to settle with cover and with even breaks, he’s the one to beat. (8) KORATORA is in rare form, stringing wins together and chasing a hat-trick. (5) WARPARTY brings good form lines through Cash and Richie D’amour, and (7) BAD DETECTIVE could be dangerous if the track favours leaders.
Suggested Bet – Anotherhouse (Win)
