| Race | Horse | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| R1 | Golden Horizon (Next Best) | Race map advantages in the small field |
| R4 | Fancify (Best) | Goes well 2bd up and is undefeated track/distance |
| R7 | Extra Hot (Best Value) | Suited getting onto the bigger track |
| R9 | Surprise Coming (EW) | Good form 2nd up and at this track |
Turf Talk:
- The rail position for Saturday’s feature Murray Bridge Cup Day will be in the True.
- Some light, patchy showers are forecast in the days leading up to Saturday, so how much rain falls will be critical to the track’s condition. Expect the track to start at a Good 4.
- The big, open-space track at Murray Bridge generally plays fairly, with winners coming from a variety of positions, so expecting no apparent bias. Tempos will be critical.
The Stats That Matter:
- Morphettville trainer Stuart Gower is in good form with 14 winners from his last 100 starters at a strong POT of +48.8%, and has a +17.8% POT at Murray Bridge. He brings two runners on Saturday, headlined by in-form runner Darknconfidential.
- Jacob Opperman rides Murray Bridge well with a 15.3% winning strike rate and a POT of +34.3%. He looks set to have seven rides on this card, including the favourite in the feature.
Race 1
(2) Golden Horizon resumes here off the back of a very impressive jumpout at Murray Bridge in September. He has raced up on speed previously, so in this small field he maps to be able to take control of the race tempo, which will suit. He looks the much better value in this race. (1) Virtual Illusion was ultra-impressive when winning on debut in a big run from the back of the field. While he appears suited at this track, the small field may be a negative if he gives a big head start to (2) Golden Horizon. (5) Fine Ace comes out of the same last start race as the favourite; she gets in here with a very light weight, which suits. (3) Snallygaster makes his debut for a strong stable, so expecting he will turn up here in good order.
Selections:
(2) Golden Horizon
(1) Virtual Illusion
(5) Fine Ace
(3) Snallygaster
Suggested Bet: Golden Horizon (Win)
Race 2
This is one for the trial watchers, as it is the first 2YO race of the season in SA. Out of the trials it was (5) Inhabit that was the big eye-catcher — she won a recent trial by 6L — but a few weeks earlier (1) Blandford Baron trialled over the same trip, running a whole second faster on the clock while under a similar level of pressure. That may not mean everything, but he is a colt who draws slightly better and gets in lighter at the weights; looks the better betting value. (7) Rebel Tuesday also won a lead-up trial and comes from an in-form team with a good record with juveniles. Keep an eye on the market for (4) East Indies, who has been supported early, which could be a strong indicator.
Selections:
(1) Blandford Baron
(5) Inhabit
(7) Rebel Tuesday
(4) East Indies
Suggested Bet: No bet — tough to have confidence betting into the young 2YO races.
Race 3
(4) Darknconfidential is in great form having won two in a row and looks well suited rising in trip on the quick back-up. Hard to beat, but feels short enough in this market. (2) Arugamama was close in the finish in the Benalla Cup despite her finishing position. She maps softly here, and her better form would be good enough to win if she can find it. (1) Test The Law might be better suited dropping slightly in grade for this and returning to a track where he has had previous success. (3) Yuri Royale comes into the race with from around runners at the top of the market in the cup, he may find this an easier level than recent runs
Selections:
(4) Darknconfidential
(2) Arugamama
(1) Test The Law
(3) Yuri Royale
Suggested Bet: No bet — expect the favourite will be hard to beat but no value betting here.
Race 4
Key scratching of Prairie Flower takes a chunk of value out of this race now but It really looks set up for (1) Fancify given she was solid 1st up but has both an impressive record 2nd up as well as being undefeated at this track/distance, she looks very hard to beat in this field off that set up. (2) Press Down can race up on the speed as well, which may trouble (1) Fancify more than she would prefer. (4) Chicago Storm resumes, looked handy in a trial and is a talented type, but expecting better from him when rising in trip later into the prep. (7) Dubai Focus gets in light at the weights relative to rivals here and has performed well first up into a prep previously.
Selections:
(1) Fancify
(2) Press Down
(4) Chicago Storm
(7) Dubai Focus
Suggested Bet: Fancify (Win)
Race 5
(6) Misludi probably needs to return at her best to be winning here, but could certainly be capable given she recently trialed well and has won two of three previous 1st-up runs. (4) Truly Elsa is another runner who needs to be respected when resuming; she can perform well fresh off a very strong trial and goes well at this track. (1) Starlite Valley rates well dropping in grade to contest this race today. She needs to handle a big weight due to the class drop but is drawn to get a soft run early, which will help. (3) Refreshing has a fitness edge on a few of these, but probably needs an even tempo early to see out a strong 1100m.
Selections:
(6) Misludi
(4) Truly Elsa
(1) Starlite Valley
(3) Refreshing
Suggested Bet: No bet — watching market moves for the resumers late for a stronger push.
Race 6
Since breaking through for his maiden win three starts ago, (8) Round Two has maintained good form, going on to win again and manage a placing last time despite having excuses in the run. A drop back in grade should suit, so expect he can really bounce back here. (2) Vintage Star will most likely be better suited today, dropping in grade to a lower-rated race than he has contested recently, which suits, but despite the chute start the wide barrier is a slight concern. (11) Capitalex won well here 1st up and now looks to rise through the grades with some confidence. (9) Streetcar Fury has been well supported in two runs so far this prep but is yet to break through; perhaps had excuses last start, so could bounce back.
Selections:
(8) Round Two
(2) Vintage Star
(11) Capitalex
(9) Streetcar Fury
Suggested Bet: No bet — some of these need to find improvement after having excuses last start.
Race 7
(7) Extra Hot has been one for the blackbook followers in her last pair of starts. She gets back in the run, so the Morphettville Parks track isn’t her ideal set-up despite the two close finishes. She now gets to the big, open Murray Bridge track, which should give her a strong chance to run on late. (5) Bad Detective looked to have every chance last start when well supported but was run down late; he is a chance to improve dropping back to 1400m. (10) Vallencourt maps to get a good sit behind leaders; if she gets a soft run early she can possibly see out a strong 1400m. (8) Falanghina next — ran well at big odds last start and is better suited today rising to 1400m.
Selections:
(7) Extra Hot
(5) Bad Detective
(10) Vallencourt
(8) Falanghina
Suggested Bet: Extra Hot (Each-way)
Race 8
The feature race of the day is the Listed Murray Bridge Gold Cup over 1600m. Many of these share form lines through the Balaklava Cup. (5) Watadeel jumped favourite in the Balaklava Cup but left himself far too much to do late. He has won again since in good fashion and looks in good order for this assignment. (7) Pudding has the same form lines through (5) Watadeel running in behind him in his last few starts recently but has a good record at this track, so could find the required improvement. (3) Sir Kingsford had to work from a wide position in The Balaklava Cup and looks better suited here today from an inside barrier and fitter 2nd up. (9) Cartoon Graveyard has been well supported early despite the fact he needs to take a sharp step up in grade, how he has hit the line in his last couple of starts suggests he is ready for the 1600m trip now.
Selections:
(5) Watadeel
(7) Pudding
(3) Sir Kingsford
(9) Cartoon Graveyard
Suggested Bet: No bet — tough to split a few at the top of the market with no standout advantages.
Race 9
(4) Surprise Coming was close to the winner in a blanket finish last start despite finishing 5th. He was strong through the line, so looks suited up in trip and at a track where he has had previous success, having won two of four 2nd-up runs. (7) Party Crasher had an impressive debut prep, not missing the top two in five career runs. He went down a Derby path that didn’t quite go to plan prior to a spell; may be the class runner of the field but is likely better suited over further. (2) Dual Pressure comes out of the same handy last start race as (4) Surprise Coming. Fitter 3rd up now but will need to overcome a wide barrier. (11) Tosen Water stuck on well last start when up in grade, she gets a good race map here from the inside and is better suited in this grade.
Selections:
(4) Surprise Coming
(7) Party Crasher
(2) Dual Pressure
(11) Tosen Water
Suggested Bet: Surprise Coming (Each-way)
