Betsy’s Set: Oaks Day

Race 1

(8) I Only Wish was good late at Pakenham, when getting too far back over 1400m. She’s better suited up in trip here and draws to get to the best part of the track. Her form last campaign around Madiyya reads well for this and she has a good bank of ratings that are superior to most here.

(14) Realika is a long gap between runs but she has solid form lines through her last couple of starts and is very honest. She maps for a good run from Gate 3 and has the ratings to figure in the finish.

Respect (12) Full Hao who looks ready to win here 3rd up with James McDonald on and thought the horse she raced last start (2) Junebug also has to be considered in an open race, especially with the in form Nash Rawiller on.

Selections:
(8) I Only Wish
(14) Realika
(12) Full Hao
(2) Junebug
Suggested Bet: I Only Wish (Each-Way).

Race 2

Intriguing race this year is the Greys’ race, with some very different form lines and a few horses here 1st up as a real target. Thought the value in the race could be (10) Chakado who hits the race fresh here for Phillip Stokes and looks to get a soft lead in front. Liked his recent trials at Pakenham and feel his ratings from last preparation are good enough to see him measure up.

(5) Getafix has been too far back in his last two runs but has some strong wins in his last preparation and gets James McDonald in the saddle. Does look short enough in the market though.

(2) Cloudland is in great form and has won this race in the past, he’ll be right in the finish.

(12) Feeling Dusty was impressive last prep and looks progressive, he’s another horse who has trialled up well for this first up.

Selections:
(10) Chakado
(5) Getafix
(2) Cloudland
(12) Feeling Dusty
Suggested Bet: Chakado (Each-Way)

Race 3

Open race this year is the Inglis Bracelet but leant the way of the Sydney form with (2) Verona Rose who comes through the Angst Stakes which was dominated by Idle Flyer (heavily backed favourite in the Empire Rose) and Perfumist, in great time. She was the best from those back in the field there and she looks better suited here given it’s not as strong a race and shouldn’t have to give the leaders as big a start. Convinced she’s the best horse in the race but I do respect the set up for the in form (4) Keep Your Cool who hits the race off a good run behind Ndola at 1400m at Caulfield and gets the hands of Mark Zahra here.

(8) Enna’s Dream can struggle to win but she’s racing with great zest. She was terrific at Moonee Valley behind Apulia.

(9) Moonlight Circus ran well in the Ladies’ Day Vase at Caulfield and whilst that was a clear PB, no reason to suggest she can’t hold that form.

Selections:
(2) Verona Rose
(4) Keep Your Cool
(8) Enna’s Dream
(9) Moonlight Circus
Suggested Bet: Verona Rose (Win).

Race 4

Think this race sets up well for (7) Liberami, who was terrific from the back in the Seymour Cup when finishing 4th and running the 2nd quickest last 200m of the race to Saint George (who was brilliant in 2nd on Tuesday). El Rocko has also won from that race since, so the form lines are strong and Liberami’s best performances are at Flemington.

(9) Al Duca was a brave effort last start with 62kgs at Caulfield, when just run down late. He drops in weight here to 55.5kgs and will be on speed.

(11) Shockletz was impressive first up and is very progressive, this is possibly the hardest challenge she’s faced but feel she’ll measure up, albeit she may be better over further.

(8) Farhh Flung is in good form and has to be in the mix for the minor money here.

Selections:
(7) Liberami
(9) Al Duca
(11) Shockletz
(8) Farhh Flung
Suggested Bet: Liberami (Win)

Race 5

Good race the Chester Manifold and last year saw Light Infantry Man and Globe run the quinella, so it’s a race worth keeping an eye on in the coming weeks.

(10) Enxuto was desperately unlucky on Saturday in the Damien Oliver when he couldn’t find galloping room at a key stage, like him on the quick turnaround and think he’s well suited up to the mile. Deserved favourite here.

(8) Poison Chalice was given a task first up with 60kgs at Gawler when racing wide and ran okay. His best is certainly good enough to win and does get James McDonald on.

(7) Regal Azmon and (3) Apulia come through the same race at Moonee Valley which rated well and both have the old figures to win a race of this standard at their best. Only knock is doesn’t look a stack of pressure on El Rocko who likely makes this a sprint home which won’t suit them as possibly wanting more distance but concede both classy enough types.

Selections:
(10) Enxuto
(8) Poison Chalice
(7) Regal Azmon
(3) Apulia
Suggested Bet: Enxuto (Win)

Race 6

Such a great race this with the heats right around Victoria qualifying the horses for the big money at Flemington. As per usual it’s a deep field but feel there’s some real value on the board with (8) Dubai Watch. this horse is flying for Mornington Peninsula based Vincent Hall and thought his run at Geelong behind (3) Ruakaka Raider was a cracking lead up for this. Unlike many of the opposition, he is proven at 1600m and draws to find the middle lanes in the straight which could be the best ground.

(2) Kengero was an eye-catcher at Seymour on return and looks another suited to the 1600m, also gets the services of Mark Zahra.

(14) I Catchem Fox is a good roughie, he’ll push forward from a good gate and has had some tough runs leading in to get him cherry ripe for the mile.

(15) Lake Vostok has a phenomenal record at Flemington, gets Craig Williams on and thought ran well at Hamilton when held up going down the hill and just missing to (10) Barbie’sdreamworld who had a better run.

(9) Ashau Valley, forgive one run and is huge odds.

Selections:
(8) Dubai Watch
(2) Kengero
(14) I Catchem Fox
(15) Lake Vostok
Suggested Bet: Dubai Watch (Each- Way)

Race 7

Always a tough race is The Red Roses, and this is no exception. Landed on (4) O’ Ole on top who I thought had trialled well in Sydney and perhaps flies under the radar here being first up for Bjorn Baker. Loved her win in the Magic Millions last start and feel she can measure up here fresh.

(7) Point Barrow was awesome from the back at Caulfield, when reeling off strong splits, she’ll get right back here again but has the talent to overcome that.

(13) Cantiamo was mighty impressive at Warwick Farm last start and on that rating she has to be in the mix, she also looks like she has upside to come.

(10) Surf’s Up, (9) Akaysha and (17) Tres Magnifique all have claims in an open race.

Selections:
(4) O’ Ole
(7) Point Barrow
(13) Cantiamo
(10) Surf’s Up
Suggested Bet: Not a race overly keen on as too many hopes.

Race 8

The Wakeful Stakes has produced six of the last seven winners of the Crown Oaks and think it’ll do the same this year, however I don’t think that will be with favourite (1) Getta Good Feeling, I think that Ballarat trained filly (7) Strictly Business could win the Oaks at start four. She was terrific from the back in the Wakeful, when too far back off a slow pace but she ran home in strong sectionals covering her last 600m in 6.1 lengths above the class par, some 2.5 lengths quicker than Getta Good Feeling, who had a much better run on speed. Off that run I just can’t get as much between them in the market as $1.80 vs $10, I marked it much closer in $2.20 vs $4.50 and had the rest a lot longer than their current prices. Feel one of the two fillies wins, but if it’s a true test of the 2500m then Strictly Business gets her chance.

(2) The Pearls will run the trip, and stuck on well in the Spring Champion last start, but don’t think she has a knockout punch required to beat the two mentioned above and whilst (3) Spicy Lu is honest, didn’t really like the Ethereal Stakes form from a winning perspective here.

(5) Ethereum Girl perhaps the roughie for exotics.

Selections:
(7) Strictly Business
(1) Getta Good Feeling
(2) The Pearls
(3) Spicy Lu
Suggested Bet: Strictly Business (Win)

Race 9

Good race to finish on, but feel (1) Rey Magnerio has a class edge and can win again. He loves the Flemington straight and was super first up in the Caulfield Sprint, even with the 59kgs he deserves favouritism.

(6) Sir Now had excuses on Saturday when pressured on speed, he has some good numbers in Adelaide and drawn wide could run a bottler.

(5) Coleman has trialled well for the new stable and gets a plethora of gear changes, no surprises to see him run well.

(8) Major Share could never get into the race first up at Moonee Valley but does have some great runs here last prep and appreciates give in the track.
Selections:
(1) Rey Magnerio
(6) Sir Now
(5) Coleman
(8) Major Share
Suggested Bet: No bets. Tough finish.