Best bet: Race 9 No.7 Persian Spirit
Two bet play: Race 6 Backing No.4 Electric Impulse/No.12 Madiyya
Two bet play: Race 7 Backing No.2 Alenquer/No.16 Skippers Canyon
Turf Talk:
- Pakenham is one of the best laid out tracks in Australia. It has a lovely, long home straight and good runs into the first turn from most starts.
- It features a sprint chute off the top of the home straight for races between 1000-1200m, barriers are of little consequence in these races. In fact, inside draws are probably more a negative.
- It has been an unusual lead into Pakenham Cup Day this year with the Club hosting five meetings rather than two over spring. The kikuyu grass takes time to flourish coming out of its dormancy during winter and it just hasn’t had a chance to come good. Hopefully it is OK for their big day, but tread wearily and keep an eye out for any early pattern.
Race 1
2YOs coming out of the sprint chute.
(9) Tag The Bride is in this up to her ears. She has jumped-out on the uphill track and synthetic at Pakenham and gone well in each hit-out. Loved how she quickened the last 200m when given a squeeze in her recent bit of work. Wide draws no issue form the chute and Luke Currie is riding very well at the moment.
(4) Sezzle went nicely in his Ballarat jump-out. He put himself on speed early and was given a very quiet time the last 200m, finishing fifth.
(8) Neotropical has trialled nicely. She looks like a sharp, sprinting filly who can run well on debut – the end of 1000m might prove testing.
Thought (6) Bright Star had trialled up just fairly for a $3.40 chance, but she hails from a very astute stable.
Selections:
(9) Tag The Bride
(4) Sezzle
(8) Neotropical
(2) Milsons Point
Suggested bet: Backing Tag The Bride/Sezzle
Race 2
(1) Shockletz will appreciate getting away from Cranbourne and back onto a bigger track. She is also down in grade and with the claim for Luke Cartwright gets in quite well. I haven’t been convinced she has been going that well this campign (was flattered by wind when winning at Sandown first up)
Blinkers went back on (2) Lodbrok last start for the first time this campaign and he worked to the line well enough in an on-speed dominated race.
(13) Leonchroi will need some luck as he will get back from the low draw, but he’s a galloper with upside, down to 52kg in a race where a few have found their mark.
Selections:
(1) Shockletz
(2) Lodbrok
(13) Leonchroi
(4) Black Peppermint
Suggested bet: Trifecta – 1,2,13 // 1,2,13 // 1,2,3,4,13
Race 3
Even speed here.
(2) Astral Flame hasn’t been to the mile as yet but based on her last start effort at Cranbourne it’s certainly the right time to try it. She has always shown above-average ability and has a liking for this Pakenham track, having broken her maiden here and run second in the rich Future Stars Final. Forget her run here two back when it was a total bog track, her runs either side have been excellent. Maps for a nice run just off speed and Lachie Neindorf is getting on well with her.
(8) I Only Wish is drawn a touch sticky for a mare that will get back. That said, she’s going very well, having hit the line strongly in each of her three runs this campaign, not always with the best of luck. Trial between runs was excellent.
(9) Jenni Gone Bonkers is short enough but concede she has upside. Belted them at this track two back but there have been some big-margin wins owing to how the track has been playing. Had every chance in a moderate Twilight Glow last time out. This is certainly no easier and drawn sticky.
(6) Miss Playlounge is a touch enigmatic but her best is pretty good. She will drift back early but an even tempo should allow her to flow into the race late.
(3) Real Alliance is totally airborne and flying at the mile. She is on the quick back-up from winning on Werribee Cup Day and can certainly be competitive up in grade.
Selections:
(2) Astral Flame
(6) Miss Playlounge
(3) Real Alliance
(8) I Only Wish
Suggested bet: Happy to watch.
Race 4
They’re out of the chute here, so not too worried about barriers.
(7) Biancelli was super late first up at Cranbourne. She was forced to chase a long way out there, never seeming 100% comfortable with the tempo around the tight-turning Cranbourne track. Wide-open expanses of the Pakenham sprint course should see her get into a much better rhythm here.
Really like how (4) Behaviour has trialled up for this return to the track. He’s more an 1100-1200m horse but unlike tighter-turning 1000m courses I don’t think that’s a big negative here at Pakenham. Wide draw no issue, just means he will stay out of trouble. Expect him to be strong late.
Selections:
(7) Biancelli
(4) Behaviour
(5) Manolo Bling
(6) Sweethearted
Suggested bet: Backing Biancelli/Behaviour
Race 5
Tough race!
(6) Hurry Curry is working up to a win. She was chopped out late at Cranbourne last time out having run well fresh at The Valley. Drawn out, but suspect she can come across and sit behind (1) Khoekhoe and (10) Eye For An Eye. Think she’s ready to win now third-up.
(11) Suntora is up in grade but she demolished her rivals on the Heath track last time out. The step to 2000m is only further in her favour.
(9) Promised Land was strong late behind an in-form Oraqua at Warrnambool last time out. Will spot them a start again but be powering at them late.
Selections:
(6) Hurry Curry
(11) Suntora
(9) Promised Land
(13) Shultzy
Suggested bet: Other better betting opportunities on the card.
Race 6
Think there are two key hopes: Electric Impulse and Madiyya.
(4) Electric Impulse had a long spell leading into this campaign, but she suggested she was ready to run a big race with her line-finding run at Ballarat last weekend. She got a mile out of her ground in a race dominated near the speed, but got home in the best last 600/200m splits of the entire meeting. The mile is her ideal distance – she beat Oh Too Good at the trip last preparation. She looks ready for the trip now and can settle handier from the good draw.
(12) Madiyya is the other key winning hope. She simply got too far back on a day you needed to be on speed at Cranbourne fresh. Big track and step to a mile are ideal. Drawing out another tick. Luke Currie takes over down in weight, which is another positive as he’s riding in excellent form.
Selections:
(12) Madiyya
(4) Electric Impulse
(8) Nation’s Call
(2) Waimarie
Suggested bet: If spending $20, have $15 on Madiyya and $5 Electric Impulse. Very keen on the race – think one of the pair win.
Race 7
Looks good speed in the Pakenham Cup. (11) Black Run, (1) Smokin’ Romans and (7) Statuario leading the charge.
Think (2) Alenquer is ready to run a big race. Was terrific three back at The Valley and stuck on gamely in the Zipping Classic last time out. He had 98 weeks off leading into this campaign so no doubt would’ve needed every bit of those first four runs to get him up to peak fitness – which he should be at on Saturday. He can roll forward and settle just in behind the speed. Great hope at $15.
Huge fan of (16) Skippers Canyon. He blew any winning hope at the start last time out at Caulfield but still worked home brilliantly, to his credit. This is tougher and he’s probably going to spot them a big start, but it isn’t a vintage Cup, which suits a progressive galloper like him. The wide-open expanses of Pakenham are also a plus. Provided they are able to make ground then he’s in this up to his eyeballs.
(3) Etna Rosso beat Alenquer home in that Zipping Classic last start. Drawn poorly, but good speed should help Willo find a spot early.
Statuario can run well on the quick back up.
Selections:
(2) Alenquer
(16) Skippers Canyon
(3) Etna Rosso
(7) Statuario
Suggested bet: Level staking Alenquer and Skippers Canyon so have the former going for a much better result.
Race 8
Great race.
Speed comes from (1) Here To Shock, (4) Arkansaw Kid, (7) Lim’s Kosciuszko, (8) Zou Sensation – they should really roll along.
(3) Private Eye is so well weighted under the SWP conditions of the race. He ended up out the back in the Russell Balding at Randwick last start but expect him to be handier on Saturday. He won both his Victorian starts this campaign and with his ratings profile he’s undoubtedly the starting point in the race.
Lucy Yeomans has her horses going well and (14) Jenni The Fox is in that bracket. She was arguably the run of the race in the Meteorite, making terrific late ground on a track that favoured those on speed. She probably lacks the class some of her rivals possess, but she looks much better than a 60/1 pop.
(8) Zou Sensation maps ideally up on speed while (4) Arkansaw Kid will be in the finish.
Selections:
(3) Private Eye
(14) Jenni The Fox
(8) Zou Sensation
(4) Arkansaw Kid
Suggested bet: Private Eye is about his right price. Could have something tiny EW Jenni The Fox.
Race 9
Speed from (2) Regal Zeus, (9) Magnaspin & (5) Run Harry Run. Doesn’t look huge speed on paper but Regal Zeus does like to roll.
(7) Persian Spirit should have won comfortably last time out. He was held up for several strides around the home bend before sprouting wings once clear, posting the best last 400m split of the meeting. He’s airborne. His form has been supreme on wet or dry this campaign and with even luck from gate eleven he’s clearly the horse to beat.
Do think (5) Run Harry Run can give a good sight on speed. He has trialled nicely since his Ararat Cup run and strikes this race reasonably fresh.
(12) Merrigold was too bad to be true at Ballarat. Quick back-up, getting back to firm ground, could see her run OK at a massive price.
(2) Regal Zeus was handed the Kilmore Cup when no one went near him the first half of the race but he can again give a sight on speed.
Selections:
(7) Persian Spirit
(5) Run Harry Run
(12) Merrigold
(2) Regal Zeus
Suggested bet: Provided they can make ground, Persian Spirit should be winning.
Race 10
Coming out of the sprint chute here, so wide draws/runs no real penalty. Good speed engaged.
(1) Big Swinger drops well back in grade here and gets the blinkers on for the first time. Drop back to 1200m is ideal and this spacious track is ideal for him. Don’t think the 62kg is a huge issue – he’s a big horse.
(13) Lim’s Ida isn’t the worst 200/1 pop I’ve seen. He was home the best last 400/200m splits of the meeting two back at Caulfield. Didn’t seem to appreciate the heavy last time out. Really liked a trial between runs and expect him to run an improved race.
(17) Recon is a promising type. He should tag a hot speed and be strong late. Always had a lot of time for this bloke and he’s absolutely up to a race like this.
(16) Heart Of Glass has trialled well and looks set to run a good race fresh.
Selections:
(1) Big Swinger
(13) Lim’s Ida
(17) Recon
(16) Heart Of Glass
Suggested bet: Backing Big Swinger, something tiny EW Lim’s Ida
