Summary of best bets:
Race 1 No.5 Another Bride (Best) – Won easily last start and looks progressive enough to rise in grade
Race 7 No.2 Costless – Drops in grade and gets back to a track he won at two starts ago
Race 9 No.2 Overstrike (Value) – On debut for a new stable, down slightly in grade and can race on speed
Turf Talk:
- The rail position remains in the same position as the previous meeting here three weeks ago and will be +2.5m 1000m–700m, +3m 700m–W/Post; True remainder
- Clear weather is forecast for race day and the lead up, so the track is expected to present as a Good 4
- The track has played evenly to begin the season here at Pt Lincoln in similar conditions, it was favourable to be on speed and majority of winners came from lanes 4–8 in the straight
Stats:
- Kylie Mckerlie travels well to this track and will saddle up two runners on the card, she boasts a winning strike rate of 14.9% at a POT of +16%
- Not many jockeys have a positive record here at this track, but Sairyn Fawke does ride well here with a winning strike rate of 10.4% at a POT of +12.1%
Race 1
(5) Another Bride was competitive in a well rated Maiden two starts ago before coming to this track and winning a Class 1 to break her maiden status easily, this race doesn’t appear much harder, and she is progressive enough to win again.
(2) Offa’s Dyke has been consistently around the mark in similar level races to this in his last three starts, only has to find 2L improvement on his best recent run to win here.
(4) Vasilias improved into the placings last start and can settle in a strong position early from barrier 1.
(7) Soul Slides Away is drawn softly and has a light weight on her back, she could get a nice run near the front and be strong late with that lighter weight
Selections:
(5) Another Bride
(2) Offa’s Dyke
(4) Vasilias
(7) Soul Slides Away
Suggested bet: (5) Another Bride (Win)
Race 2
(10) Stars Are Aligning has run 2nd in two runs so far this prep and she appears close to a breakthrough win; she maps to be in a prominent position in running from barrier 2 and gets every chance.
(6) Dragon Fish showed improvement when getting to his home track last start, he showed good early speed last time out which should see him in a good position in run.
(8) Love So Sweet resumes and looked good when winning a recent trial at this track, she can perform well fresh.
(2) Game Over needs to find improvement on what he was producing last prep but maps for a super run so gets his chance in this field if he comes back an improved type.
Selections:
(10) Stars Are Aligning
(6) Dragon Fish
(8) Love So Sweet
(2) Game Over
Suggested bet: No bet
Race 3
(6) Renegade Chief has been well supported in his last two starts here and ran a close 2nd last start, can improve enough with another soft race map to win a race like this.
(9) Holder Maid showed improvement last start when going around at this track/distance set up, drawn for a soft run again so can be around the mark in a very similar race.
(11) Reiby Princess has run into the placings in her last two starts and looks suited rising up in distance off the back of those performances.
(1) Aquafox makes his debut for a new stable today, this race looks easier than his two previous runs in Victoria and has looked encouraging at the trials recently.
Selections:
(6) Renegade Chief
(9) Holder Maid
(11) Reiby Princess
(1) Aquafox
Suggested bet: No bet
Race 4
(4) The Gov looks well suited in this race today dropping down in grade and set to jump from barrier 1. She looks likely to race up on speed and lead the field up. If she gets the soft run out in front she could prove hard to catch down in this grade.
(1) Prescient has good early speed, but a wide barrier will mean he has to be quick early to find the right position. He should be suited back to the 1000m trip given his last two runs.
(7) Spiritual Gal was a good winner in a similar grade to this two starts ago before a strong run up in grade last start, the drop back in level now will suit.
(3) Chef Militaire makes his debut for a new stable having gone around in stronger races last prep, this set up could suit.
Selections:
(4) The Gov
(1) Prescient
(7) Spiritual Gal
(3) Chef Militaire
Suggested bet: No bet
Race 5
(1) Shuttle Run was in good winning form recently when winning two in a row before a strong effort up in grade last time, he is better suited today down in grade but may need some luck early to avoid getting caught from a wide barrier.
(9) Catalina Blue is suited dropping in grade here as well, she boasts a strong record over this track/distance set up and will be suited if the track is playing fairly.
(10) Ok Gerry has good early speed and looks the likely leader of the race, he can prove hard to catch with a light weight on his back.
(2) The Hass gets in light at the weights after an apprentice claim and could find this slightly easier than his last start so can find enough improvement to win a race of this level.
Selections:
(1) Shuttle Run
(9) Catalina Blue
(10) Ok Gerry
(2) The Hass
Suggested bet: No bet
Race 6
(1) Utilitarian rates highly in this field today having won last start when well up in grade. This is a drop back in level which sets him up well, remaining at this distance range 3rd up today should suit.
(9) Ze Birds‘n’Zebees showed improvement last start rising in distance, he goes well at this track and gets the right set up to go close again.
(5) Master Charlie had little luck last start from a wide run and should be an improver here today from a better barrier which should give him a softer race map.
(7) Belle Inferno comes into this race off the back of a freshen up, she looks likely to jump and settle forwards in the run which we expect to be an advantage here today.
Selections:
(1) Utilitarian
(9) Ze Birds‘n’Zebees
(5) Master Charlie
(7) Belle Inferno
Suggested bet: No bet
Race 7
(2) Costless recently won two in a row before stepping up in grade to contest a stronger race at Gawler, back in grade and returning to a track he has won at recently will suit, looks likely to be one of the early leaders.
(7) Midnight Ruler looks suited coming back to the 1210m trip for this today given his stronger form is at this track/distance. He maps to lead and if he gets a soft run from barrier 3, he could be tough to catch.
(10) Bulls On Parade will have a light weight on his back here today with an apprentice claim and can get the right run from barrier 1 which should suit.
(8) Alfano resumes here today, this race looks likely to have a quick speed and if they go along too hard out in front, it could set him up to swoop over the top of them late.
Selections:
(2) Costless
(7) Midnight Ruler
(10) Bulls On Parade
(8) Alfano
Suggested bet: (2) Costless (Win)
Race 8
(2) I’m A Dexstar has proved tough for punters to follow in his last couple of starts having been well supported to run 2nd both times. He has good enough form to win a race of this level, but he needs luck from a wide barrier.
(4) Sir Lord maps well from barrier 1 and looks likely to race on speed, he has a 2kg apprentice claim off his back so could prove hard to reel in late with a soft run and light weight.
(1) Excelman rates highly in this field and looks ready to find his better form up at this distance range now.
(8) Super Valentine should be better suited up at this distance today as well.
Selections:
(2) I’m A Dexstar
(4) Sir Lord
(1) Excelman
(8) Super Valentine
Suggested bet: No bet
Race 9
(2) Overstrike will make his debut here for a new stable today and kicks off down in grade from the races he was competing in earlier this prep. He can race on speed and be handy in the run and will be after a soft time on speed to see out this distance.
(3) Lava Lad has been in super form winning his last 4 starts and again looks to rise up in grade and continue that strong recent form, can race just off the speed in a comfortable position.
(4) Sino Witness maps for the run of the race from barrier 3 and could peak at this point of the prep fitter 3rd up now where he has won twice previously.
(5) The Wirrulla Boy rates well in this grade and has been well supported in two recent runs up in grade, needs luck from the wide barrier.
Selections:
(2) Overstrike
(3) Lava Lad
(4) Sino Witness
(5) The Wirrulla Boy
Suggested bet: (2) Overstrike (Win)
