Summary of best bets:
Best bet: Race 1 No.3 The Mean Fiddler
Next best: Race 8 No.7 Stealth of Night
Best value: Race 6 No.3 Nadal
Turf Talk:
- Rail out 3m on Lakeside, the inner track at Sandown.
- Was an advantage to be on speed/inside at the most recent meeting, as it generally is around the tighter Lakeside circuit.
Race 1
(3) The Mean Fiddler was scintillating on debut, taking up the lead early, controlling the tempo, and then quickening to win by five lengths. The most impressive aspect was his closing sectionals, recording the meeting’s fastest final 200 metres at the end of 1430 metres. He rated approximately seven lengths faster than the BM66 for older horses on the same program and also ran a superior last 400 metres. I suspect he may be a black-type horse in the future.
(7) Princing shed his maiden status nicely at Werribee, leading throughout at a genuine tempo before slackening mid-race and sprinting well over the final two furlongs. He’ll give a solid account, but would need to improve to beat the favourite.
(2) Wrigley Field finished quickly at the end of a slowly run race at Ballarat on Cup Day. That race rated poorly, but he’s a talented gelding who continues to improve.
Selections:
(3) The Mean Fiddler
(7) Princing
(2) Wrigley Field
Suggested bet: (3) The Mean Fiddler (Best Bet).
Race 2
(12) Runlikeanencryption deserves to head the market, but not to the extent he currently does. I think being priced inside $5.00 is generous and he should be closer to $6.50. He was held up on the turn at Caulfield last start and holds ratings from last preparation that make him the one to beat. I have no interest in backing him at the price.
(2) Speir disappointed as favourite at Warrnambool last start, racing well below his first-up form. In fairness, he’s never handled ground with give, which may explain the performance. If he returns to his peak figure, he can certainly win.
(5) Behaviour finished with the meeting’s fastest final 400 metres at Pakenham on Cup Day in a horribly slow 1000 metre race. With more tempo here, he can improve sharply under Jamie Melham.
Selections:
(12) Runlikeanencryption
(2) Speir
(5) Behaviour
Suggested bet: No bet.
Race 3
Another extremely difficult race.
I’ve rated (5) Scintillante on top, marking him an $8.00 chance, such is the depth of this contest. He’s been racing Touchdown at his past two starts, which is stronger form than required here. He’s fourth-up, has shown ability, and finished fourth in the SA Derby earlier this year. At $11.00, he’s worth backing. Jackson Radley is a capable apprentice and should give him every chance.
(11) Wolfess has been competitive at her past two starts and should again give a sight.
(14) Amizetta may need one more run to reach peak fitness, but the booking of Jamie Melham signals intent. She can run to the required level of form to win this.
Selections:
(5) Scintillante
(11) Wolfess
(14) Amizetta
Suggested bet: Small bets (5) Scintillante
Race 4
(2) Hot Digity Boom resumes after a consistent campaign without winning. He was narrowly beaten several times, including when third to El Morzillo in the Inglis Sprint. He’s trialled well, and I’ve priced him closer to $7.00 than the $9.00 available.
(14) Mercurial Lady was well beaten by Knobelas last start without excuse. She returns to six furlongs, where her best ratings have come, and has been freshened. She’s well placed and should be second favourite for mine.
(3) No Fooling finally gets out to six furlongs after being kept to shorter trips. He promised plenty on debut and has somewhat disappointed since, but can make amends.
(4) Sea Poem continues to race well and can again be competitive.
Selections:
(2) Hot Digity Boom
(14) Mercurial Lady
(3) No Fooling
(4) Sea Poem
Suggested bet: No bet.
Race 5
(2) Stage ’N’ Screen raced wide without cover at Cranbourne last start, finishing strongly into second behind Gellhorn. Logan Bates takes the ride, she draws better, and her prior peaks make her the one to beat.
(1) Legacy Bay continues to race well and should again run strongly, but I can’t take the price. She’s well set up to run to her best, but $4.00 feels too short.
(3) All Business was badly held up at Sandown on resumption and can improve quickly to the level that had him competing with horses like Em Sixty.
(6) Colour Our World won well first-up and can win again if things fall his way.
Selections:
(2) Stage ’N’ Screen
(1) Legacy Bay
(3) All Business
(6) Colour Our World
Suggested bet: No bet.
Race 6
(3) Nadal has been building toward something in three runs since returning from injury. He settled well back in The Meteorite and finished with the meeting’s fastest final 200 metres. He’s not back to last year’s peak, but there are a few hints that he may not be far from it. Being priced alongside Major Share and Marble Nine is almost disrespectful. He only needs to be within two lengths of his best to win this. I make him a $4.20 chance, and if Robert Whearty finds clear running between the 500 and 300, they won’t see which way he goes.
(5) Hedged started favourite in The Meteorite, didn’t handle the quick backup, raced ungenerously, and weakened. He’s better than that, and Bedggood’s decision to race here suggests confidence. Sandown suits.
(1) Aviatress is talented and worked hard to win the Doveton Stakes, but she concedes weight to her opposition as a mare and looks like a vulnerable favourite.
(4) A Little Deep improves sharply second-up and can do so again.
Selections:
(3) Nadal
(5) Hedged
(1) Aviatress
(4) A Little Deep
Suggested bet: (3) Nadal (Best Value).
Race 7
Another difficult race.
(3) Regal Zeus was very poor at Pakenham when setting the pace and folding early, but if forgiven that run, his form over a mile stacks up strongly. His 1400 metre record is weirdly far inferior to that over a mile. He can settle forward and run a reliable figure.
(5) Jennilala has been racing in stronger company and should control the race. She set a strong tempo in the Cranbourne Cup and was beaten four lengths. Freshened, her best is good enough, assuming Craig doesn’t return to his peak.
(1) Craig resumed from a long break last start, finishing fairly after dwelling and not handling the conditions. At his best, he wins this easily, and $5.00 would be stealing money, but I’m not prepared to take the gamble.
(6) Precious Charm won the Werribee Cup last start and has been building toward this level. She’s a chance if she improves again.
Selections:
(3) Regal Zeus
(5) Jennilala
(1) Craig
(6) Precious Charm
Suggested bet: No bet.
Race 8
(7) Stealth Of Night rated well in winning last start and profiles to take another step forward. If he does, I’m not sure which of these can match him over the final 400 metres. Craig Williams rides, he maps well, and the price is fair.
(15) Mometz finished strongly at Cranbourne and is progressive. He lacks early speed, so he and Luke Nolen will be hoping for a pace collapse at the front of the race.
(1) Kahhof was out of his depth last start, but drops back in grade and can improve.
Selections:
(7) Stealth Of Night
(15) Mometz
(1) Kahhof
Suggested bet: (7) Stealth Of Night (Next Best Bet).
