Summary of Best Bets:
Best bet: Race 3 No.2 Immediacy
Two-bet play: Race 1 Backing No.5 Codigo / No.9 Arcandam
Best roughie: Race 4 Backing No.11 Mr Epozino / No.13 Abrafo
Turf Talk:
- Rail back to the True having been out 8m.
- Light southerly winds, a tailwind out of the long sprint chute.
- Dry, warm day which should see the track upgraded to a Good 3 early on.
- Expecting horses on speed to have an edge, especially out of the sprint chute.
Race by race overview
Race 1
(2) Gracie’s Rain probably leads with (9) Arcandam coming across to sit outside her. Expect (8) Along The River also prominent. Tempo even for an 1100m race.
Like what (9) Arcandam has done in two runs this campaign, posting wins at Murray Bridge and Warrnambool. Slow starts plagued his first campaign but he’s been jumping much better this time around and was on speed for both wins this prep. Seven weeks between runs but not concerned about that as he has trialled very well at Colac in that time. Can come across and sit outside the leader without doing too much work and even if he is a touch slow, drawing wide allows him to muster and press forward.
Think (5) Codigo has a great hope. He doesn’t seem to get 1400m, so off a freshen with the blinkers on and back to 1100m looks a good play. Like horses dropping in trip with the shades going on. Was very good three back at 1000m and gets in reasonably well after the claim for Luke Cartwright.
(12) Expulsion has a lethal turn of foot and if she’s within striking distance at the top of the straight she will figure in the finish.
(2) Gracie’s Rain continues to race well and will make her own luck out in front.
Selections:
(9) Arcandam
(5) Codigo
(2) Gracie’s Rain
(12) Expulsion
Suggested bet: Tricky start. Small two-bet play: Arcandam / Codigo.
Race 2
Tricky little contest.
Not sure how well (2) Rosberg has come back but he’s got untapped potential. Debut win when heavily backed at The Valley in spring was awesome. He then pulled up shin sore after running terribly in the Group 2 Danehill Stakes. Blinkers on first-up. First trial was solid but thought he was a pass mark at best in his latest. Market will be fascinating late.
(7) Redders resumed as a gelding and did a good job at Geelong against the older horses. He gets a lovely run here and can be competitive at a big price.
(3) Pallaton got too far back in a slowly run race at this track and trip. He clearly needed the run judging by his blowout the last 200m. He can absolutely win but he seems prohibitively short at $2.60.
(4) Esmahli’s jump-out between runs was just fair but he’s never been a flashy jump-out horse. Has fitness and recent form on side. Maps reasonably well.
Selections:
(2) Rosberg
(7) Redders
(3) Pallaton
(4) Esmahli
Suggested bet: Very little interest.
Race 3
Suspect (3) Magnaspin and (4) Taken fight for the lead. Magnaspin probably gets the front. (8) Sun Gift their back.
(2) Immediacy was huge first-up off a long spell in a brutally run Carlyon Stakes. Granted, he sucked up the fence but he also didn’t get clear when he needed to. Love gate five for him. He can probably land one-out, one-back and Johnny Allen can get moving into the race when he desires. If he just holds that form from last start he will be in the finish. If he comes on at all then he’s clearly the horse to beat, for mine.
Good effort from (4) Taken last time out. Six weeks between runs, going from 1400m to 1700m and able to get the job done. Did get a soft run there and this looks a tougher assignment. The real concern at this stage has to be the 2000m. He may run it but there’s not much there to suggest he will at this stage and as a result I can’t get him anywhere near the $2.70.
(3) Magnaspin will run an honest race on speed.
Selections:
(2) Immediacy
(4) Taken
(3) Magnaspin
Suggested bet: Keen Immediacy.
Race 4
Speed should be strong. (15) Miss Maranda, (12) The Better Husband, (3) Our Chief and maybe (10) Lucky Lucky Boom roll forward.
Again, happy to spec a couple of roughies.
(13) Abrafo led when winning his maiden at Seymour but think that was more to get the maiden out of the way and due to a lack of tempo. His win didn’t look pretty, but I reckon he’s a stayer who was in a sit-sprint affair. It took him a long time to wind through his gears. A strong tempo at 1800m should be right up his alley and from a soft draw he should do no work in the run.
(11) Mr Epozino is another roughie with a hope. He was a surprise winner on debut at Seymour but he was super strong on the line there at 1300m. He took on the older horses in a handy BM62 at Pakenham last start and only really got clear the last furlong, but his work to and through the line was super. Step to 1800m looks ideal and from gate one he should get a soft run just off the speed.
(1) Arcora only had one jump-out leading into his first-up run behind Observer. I’d read leading into that he was going to be scratched and jump-out instead, so suspect he was significantly underdone. He still ran OK from an 1800m perspective and he has some reasonable ratings in his locker. Last time he got to 1800m in the Exford Plate he had absolutely no luck. His second to Observer in the Derby was terrific. Needs a good ride the first two furlongs from a sticky gate, but if he gets even luck in running then he can win.
(4) Single Choice was good against the older horses on the Heath first-up. Interesting that he got straight to 1800m this campaign after running third in a Carbine Club but suspect Matt Cumani is keen to get him to the ATC Derby. Wide draw no spoil for him but has Damian Lane on board, who bounced back to form at Flemington last Saturday.
(6) Master Of The Air finished alongside Arcora at Caulfield last time out. Step in trip looks ideal and gets Ethan Brown in the saddle.
Selections:
(13) Abrafo
(11) Mr Epozino
(1) Arcora
(6) Master Of The Air
Suggested bet: Backing Abrafo / Mr Epozino at big prices.
Race 5
Key element is the speed map. (5) Mystery ‘N’ Drama and maybe (4) Jenni Gone Bonkers push forward.
What do they do with (1) Sheza Alibi from gate one first-up with bigger targets in mind? She drew gates 2, 2 and 1 last campaign and settled 4th, 6th and 3rd at 1200m, 1400m and 1600m. She was utterly dominant when the blinkers went on last campaign. A brilliant win at Flemington when held up much of the straight, before a demolition in the Sandown Guineas. All things being equal, she should win this, but the speed map means I can’t get her to the $1.50 quote on offer.
In terms of dangers, it looks to be (2) Salty Pearl, who got back at 1200m in the Manfred before having no luck over the concluding stages. Better suited at 1400m, given a nice tick-over trial between runs and suspect they won’t get as far back on her here.
(6) Chateau Eze ran well enough in the Kevin Hayes fresh, while (5) Mystery ‘N’ Drama can give a sight on speed.
Selections:
(2) Salty Pearl
(1) Sheza Alibi
(6) Chateau Eze
(5) Mystery ‘N’ Drama
Suggested bet: Maybe something small on Salty Pearl to knock off the fave, but not keen.
Race 6
There doesn’t look much speed. (3) Jennilala likely leads off gate one from (9) Bossy Benita.
Not mad on the map but, sheesh, (1) Benagil looks to have come back well. Concede she’s a mare that generally shows up in jump-outs, but her two this time in have been excellent. Best of her form is up to winning a race like this first-up and her effort first-up at this track and trip when not having much luck in the Weekend Hussler was good for a race like this.
(3) Jennilala looks a big price given she could get control of this. Was six weeks between runs when sitting handy to a solid tempo in the Heffernan. She finished alongside the $2.70 favourite Damask Rose in the Rupert Clarke back in the spring. Granted Damask Rose was chopped out late, but Jennilala sat up on a strong tempo in a race set up for the run-on horses. This is easier. Her run in the Lord Stakes at Sandown was good and with a soft run on speed she can get them chasing from the 600m.
(9) Bossy Benita will likely have a tactical edge on key rivals. She bolted in at track and trip back in August and her trials prior to a sound first-up run in the Bellmaine, a key form reference, were sound.
(5) Damask Rose beat Bossy Benita home in that Bellmaine. She is in well under the SWP conditions of this race versus her rating, but she is certainly quite well found.
Selections:
(1) Benagil
(3) Jennilala
(9) Bossy Benita
(5) Damask Rose
Suggested bet: Backing Benagil / Jennilala.
Race 7
Not a lot of speed. The two speed horses seem to be (3) Evaporate and (7) Treasurethe Moment, with the former drawn outside the latter. Either Evaporate is happy to sit outside Treasurethe Moment or forces the issue and Lane looks to pop off the fence on the favourite. Either way, tempo doesn’t look manic and these two should dictate.
Think the two on speed can run 1-2.
(7) Treasurethe Moment was brilliant winning the Memsie first-up last campaign before having a colic attack. She was never at her best thereafter, understandably. Has jumped-out nicely. Loves Caulfield. If she brings her best, she wins. That said, you’re copping a rock bottom price.
Can make a case that (3) Evaporate is value. He’s a tough, consistent galloper who has several ratings in the locker that have him in the finish. Key is he can push forward and have a tactical advantage on several key rivals. Loved his recent jump-out.
Thought (1) Pericles’ latest trial was just there but moved well in his first hit-out. He had an amazing preparation last time in, kicking off with a 1400m win in the Tramway. Goes well fresh. Drawn a soft gate. Probably a bit unlucky in the Group 2 Lawrence at this track and trip first-up in the spring of 2024. Had an issue last time he was at Caulfield so forgiving of that. In this up to his ears.
Firstly, the quality of Perth trial vision is outstanding. Secondly, (5) Watch Me Rock has trialled up nicely and he brings proper Perth form. Going back a decade or more you’d just trust the ratings and form, but I am suspicious of the depth of Perth racing so happy to see him prove himself over here first.
Selections:
(7) Treasurethe Moment
(3) Evaporate
(1) Pericles
(5) Watch Me Rock
Suggested bet: Happy to watch.
Race 8
The big one, the Blue Diamond.
Speed all looks to be drawn low. (5) Guest House, (14) Lady Moscato, (15) I Am Aria and (19) Tough Romance. Tempo should be strong enough given several are getting to 1200m for the first time and this is Group 1 day.
(5) Guest House got it all wrong in the Prelude but thought he did well to stick on as he did. He was six weeks between runs and that freshness clearly showed. Also missed the kick, which is something he hasn’t done previously. What I liked about his run last start is he didn’t let (6) Eternal Warrior get past him and past the post he was right up with (3) Closer To Free, leaving Eternal Warrior in his wake. Provided he jumps cleanly, he can bowl along out in front and if he gets the 1200m, which is a query for many of these, I think he’s the starting point in the race. No moral by any stretch, but I think he should be favourite.
Not certain the Millennium form is much chop, but do know that (2) Alibaba should have bolted in. He was enormous. Froggy Newitt knows a thing or two about winning a Diamond, having saluted on Extreme Choice and Samaready for Mick Price. Alibaba isn’t in either of their class, but this isn’t a vintage year. The knock is he’s going to get a long way back, but at least from the wide draw he should stay out of trouble, unlike last start. Can run a huge race at big odds.
(7) Milsons Point looks a good roughie in the race. At the very least, he will run the 1200m. He might even be looking for further. Loved the way he put them away at Pakenham on debut and a jump-out between runs was strong, going past (1) Unit Five over the concluding stages, albeit Unit Five was under light riding.
Wasn’t much between (11) Ghana’s Akan and (12) Streisand in the Preview. Ghana’s Akan ran well in the Millennium in Sydney and will benefit from Ethan Brown’s services. Meanwhile, Streisand was good winning the Prelude and the blinkers going on should sharpen her up. Both have winning claims. (16) Chayan was super in the same race.
(1) Unit Five has claims but I thought he was short enough. Advantage is he’s won at 1200m in taking out the Magic Millions.
Selections:
(5) Guest House
(2) Alibaba
(7) Milsons Point
(11) Ghana’s Akan
Suggested bet: If spending $50 on the race, I am $30 Guest House, $15 Alibaba, $5 Milsons Point.
Race 9
Never thought (1) Hedged would be topweight for an Oakleigh Plate, especially off a 105 rating. Concede he’s flying for Gavin Bedggood but it underlines the lack of depth.
Anyway, that matters little. Let’s just back the bloody winner.
(3) Tropicus, (4) Way To The Stars, (11) Don’t Hope Do and (13) Gallant Son look the speed. They’ll go at an even clip.
Interestingly, a 3yo filly hasn’t won since Miss Kournikova narrowly shaded Miss Pennymoney to win in 2001. Fair to say that was a strong edition. They also ran a blistering 1:02.08. Anyway, that’s irrelevant.
That said, I think (14) Point Barrow is clearly the horse to beat. She has a lethal turn of foot. Whilst the form behind her in 3yo company doesn’t look that strong, this isn’t a deep Group 1 Oakleigh Plate. Her win here at Caulfield two back was outstanding. Her win down the straight over Inkaruna was tremendous. She’s the horse in the race with untapped upside. She’s the horse that is most likely to go on and win a proper Group 1.
The knock is twofold. She’s a get-back sprinter who is going to have the whole field in front of her and she laid in quite badly up the straight last campaign, which is something Jamie Melham is going to have to be awake to.
I think her stablemate (3) Tropicus is the danger. He will put himself on speed. He goes well fresh and he loves Caulfield. If leaders are rolling in earlier in the day then absolutely promote him in thoughts.
(11) Don’t Hope Do drops in weight after a good run on speed in the Rubiton. Thought he went too slowly there, he’s better cruising at a higher tempo. Will give a sight on speed.
This all comes down to pattern. If horses are making ground as the day plays out then I can take the $2.90 Point Barrow because I think it will come down to the ride. If horses are struggling to make ground, then Tropicus is the horse to beat. Sounds obvious, but my point is I am happy to keep the gun in the holster and see how the day unfolds.
Selections:
(14) Point Barrow
(3) Tropicus
(11) Don’t Hope Do
(8) Persian Spirit
Suggested bet: Pattern vital.
Race 10
Looks good speed. (6) Porter looks the leader and he likes to roll along. (2) Black Storm and (12) Stealth Of Night handy. Think (1) Harry’s Yacht will be closer from gate one.
(13) Two Wolves appreciated a strong tempo at this track and trip last start. The race collapsed late and he pounced. This is tougher, but he drops 4kg for the privilege and is still a horse on the up.
Stealth Of Night and Harry’s Yacht, along with (10) Prancing Spirit, come through the same race last time out. Despite finishing behind Stealth Of Night, I thought Harry’s Yacht was as good a run and he now gets the pole draw. Can turn the tables, whether that’s good enough to win is another matter.
For mine, (3) Kings Valley has a winning hope first-up. He was excellent in a Ballarat jump-out and is a horse that runs well fresh. Despite being a horse that gets out in trip as the campaign unfolds, he is capable of taking up a handy position at 1400m. Granted it was a mile, but his first-up run behind El Rocko and Too Darn Discreet at the start of spring was good, definitely strong enough to measure up here.
Even race.
Selections:
(3) Kings Valley
(1) Harry’s Yacht
(13) Two Wolves
Suggested bet: Backing Kings Valley each-way.
