Summary of Best Bets
- Best Bet: Race 4 (5) Central Europe
- Next Best: Race 9 (1) Globe
- Next Best: Race 5 (1) Vauban
- Bets Roughie: Race 8 (3) Vivy Air
Race by race overview
Race 1
Tricky midway to kick off proceedings here at Rosehill. (12) Flightcrew is going very well, should suit the expected run-on track and with Lloyd aboard she goes on top. (13) Audrey’s Lane has trialled up well leading into this event, has drawn a smart barrier and should get to the right lanes in the straight. (1) African Daisy maps ideally from barrier 4 and does have a sharp fresh profile, so she is in the mix. Outside of that, (6) Everyone’s A Star can run a big race, just needs luck from the draw but is going well.
Selections:
(12) Flightcrew
(13) Audrey’s Lane
(1) African Daisy
(6) Everyone’s A Star
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 2
Tricky little race this. (3) Unleeshing was flat last week over 1600m when coming off a four-week freshen. She is on the quick backup here and rises to 1900m, both ticks, as is the small field. (4) Tazima peaks now third up after back-to-back sound efforts in unsuitable races, while the booking of James McDonald and the rise in trip suit well. (6) Iceman is another on the quick backup. (8) O’Sheamus did not have a whole lot of luck fresh, looks well placed out in trip and should jump out of the ground now.
Selections:
(3) Unleeshing
(4) Tazima
(6) Iceman
(8) O’Sheamus
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 3
Plenty of speed is expected up front over the 1200m in the Magic Night, the fillies’ last attempt to make next week’s Golden Slipper. Happy to put the unraced Archibald-trained (10) Hellenic Belle on top. Loved her two most recent trials when running slick time, she maps to find the 1-1 and has come up odds. I do respect (3) Pembrey. Nothing went right last start but she still picked herself up and hit the line over the last 100m. Solid map, but she will have company up front. (9) Ekitfire had zero luck on debut at Canterbury, gets a much better setup here and should be hitting the line. (11) Ciaron’s Star got flushed out too early last start, but an okay gate with speed on suits.
Selections:
(10) Hellenic Belle
(3) Pembrey
(9) Ekitfire
(11) Ciaron’s Star
Suggested Bet: Hellenic Belle WIN
Race 4
Time for the boys in the Group 2 Pago Pago. There is no tomorrow for the extremely well-bred colt (5) Central Europe, who must win this to gain a start in next week’s Golden Slipper. He was a good thing beaten on debut and gets a key jockey change with James McDonald on board. Plenty of speed is expected up front, which will suit. (2) Warwoven is the danger. He will need to run top three himself if he wants to run in the Slipper next week. He lacked fitness in the Group 2 Skyline when closing off back to the inside and will take sharp improvement out of that, but draws awkwardly. (8) High Alert and (9) Euripides both come here needing to improve, but both have race fitness and go in the numbers.
Selections:
(5) Central Europe
(2) Warwoven
(8) High Alert
(9) Euripides
Suggested Bet: Central Europe WIN
Race 5
Small field assembled for the Sky High Stakes over the 2000m. I like the fresh profile of (1) Vauban. He has produced near best figures in both of his first-up runs for the Waterhouse and Bott camp. He comes here off some solid trials and maps to land wherever he wants in the small field. (5) Wootton Verni has been very well backed with James McDonald jumping aboard, has put in two solid efforts this prep and looks set to peak now. (4) Soul Of Spain has come back in great order, peaks third up and steps up to 2000m, which is key. (3) Just Fine goes in for fourth but needs to improve significantly.
Selections:
(1) Vauban
(5) Wootton Verni
(4) Soul Of Spain
(3) Just Fine
Suggested Bet: Vauban WIN
Race 6
The Maurice McCarten Stakes is a cracker, a wide-open betting race with a handful of chances. (3) Flying For Fun has trialled up exceptionally well leading in, although the inside gate is a query with the rail true. (4) Kings Secret brings a progressive profile to this event. He has been given a freshen with a smart tick-over trial, maps ideally and is the danger. (8) Mal Coupe is the bombproof galloper, keeps raising the bar and has added dry tracks to her resume. She will find the 1-1 and finish in the mix no doubt. The stablemate to Kings Secret, (2) Kerguelen, was enormous first up, winning from a near impossible position in transit. Strips fitter but stays at 1100m, which is the query.
Selections:
(3) Flying For Fun
(4) Kings Secret
(8) Mal Coupe
(2) Kerguelen
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 7
It looks (1) Sixties’ race to lose on paper in this year’s Phar Lap Stakes. He was terrific in the Australian Guineas despite having a wide gate, he looks to get a softer setup here and is the one to beat. I expect (2) Shangri La Boy to bounce back in a big way. He was too bad to be true fresh, gets the tongue tie on now second up and should get control of this race. (10) Panova was poor first up, but she is a better horse than that and gets her chance now up in trip second up. Big watch. (3) West Of Swindon is next best, another who brings Australian Guineas form to this event. His map is the big tick. Outside of that, (6) Top Reward can run a sneaky race at odds.
Selections:
(1) Sixties
(2) Shangri La Boy
(10) Panova
(3) West Of Swindon
(6) Top Reward
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 8
The Group 1 Coolmore Classic is the feature event on the program. There looks to be a real lack of speed up front, which is key to note. (4) Verona Rose is once again disrespected in this market. She showed tactical versatility last start when sitting in the speed, maps to again be positive here and that is key. Up to 1500m and should find the back of Savvy Hallie. The danger looks to be (3) Vivy Air at odds. She is absolutely airborne at the trials, maps slightly off speed but should get her chance down the middle of the track. (7) Savvy Hallie should get every possible chance here with the map, while the first go at 1500m is the query. (1) Lazzura was okay first up, is very short in this market but can improve. (12) Shohisha was sneaky good first up and goes in the mix too.
Selections:
(4) Verona Rose
(3) Vivy Air
(7) Savvy Hallie
(1) Lazzura
(12) Shohisha
Suggested Bet: Verona Rose WIN / Vivy Air EW
Race 9
Win and you’re into the Doncaster. (1) Globe looks to be thriving in Sydney, as most do. He has had back-to-back impressive trials and can kick off his prep in similar fashion to last time in. The key to his chances is the map, where he will land off the rails. (5) Lord Penman’s fresh win was full of merit. He was off rails and off speed on a day you needed to find the rails. He gets okay tempo here but will get a long way back. I expect (3) Willadow to improve here. He was 1/5 lame last start and now goes to 1500m. Love his tactical speed. The Baker duo (4) Robusto and Sandpaper go in the mix, both here off freshens and both have trialled well.
Selections:
(1) Globe
(5) Lord Penman
(3) Willadow
(4) Robusto
Suggested Bet: Globe WIN
Race 10
Wide-open end to the program with plenty of these coming out to run at Kembla Grange on Friday. I will lean the way of (12) Sovereign Hill. He has been sent back to the trials and should be rock-hard fit here now deep into the prep. (14) Captain Furai was smart fresh when winning, maps well and finds James McDonald now. (11) Modella was impressive first up and has been well backed here in early markets. (2) Perfumist is going well at the trials, has a nice enough fresh profile and has only been off the scene for 19 weeks. Outside of that, (6) Eye Of The Fire goes in the mix. Fit and in form.
Selections:
(12) Sovereign Hill
(14) Captain Furai
(11) Modella
(2) Perfumist
(6) Eye Of The Fire
Suggested Bet: No Bet
