Summary of Best Bets:
Race 2 (4) Automne Tree
Turf Talk:
- Rail 0.5m
- Doomben always excites me with a good rail and half decent weather.
Stats that matter:
- Ben Thompson is in very good form with 12 wins from his last 50 rides before Wednesday. Has a negative ROI -20.6% but a good book of rides this weekend.
- Matt Hoysted has 10 winners from last 50 and ROI +9.8%. More importantly, this looks the best Saturday team he has put together for a fair while.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Handy race here to start.
(2) Apex Predator had trialled well before the debut win. Looked good there and has been freshened for this. Looks to have good upside.
(1) High Authority showed good ability in the first prep and returned a winner first-up at the Gold coast. Looked good there and fitter now as well.
(3) Bull Rayner was very good on debut after getting back in a slow run race. From the inside draw with natural improvement, he is a winning hope here for Thompson.
(4) Mean King looks a good one in the making but did a bit wrong on debut. Could be a sharp improver with that run under his belt.
Selections:
(2) Apex Predator
(3) Bull Rayner
(1) High Authority
(4) Mean King
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2:
(4) Automne Tree looked a very well placed horse up here instead of down south. Forget the bottomless track fresh and go off the last start dominant win at the midweeks. Has upside and Waller’s usually get better as they get into a prep.
(12) Krumac is a horse I thought would win multiple Saturday races. Hasn’t reached that standard but is up to this from a good gate.
(8) Dracena will be better for the fresh run but may just need one more to top it off.
Selections:
(4) Automne Tree
(12) Krumac
(8) Dracena
(3) Smart As Smart
Suggested Bet: (4) Automne Tree
Race 3:
Zero interest in the “Qld staying race”.
One of the only horses I trust is (1) Prince Levi. Don’t like 60kg and apprentice but he gets a soft run in transit and this might be a bit easier than most of the prep.
(10) Lennox was OK fresh, better 2nd up and could be an improver 3rd up to this trip with Thompson on. Just mixes form in the past and hard to trust.
(3) Cavalry Man had been excellent this trip but the Ipswich Cup was plain. Could bounce back and not surprise.
Selections:
(1) Prince Levi
(10) Lennox
(3) Cavalry Man
(7) Marenaro
Suggested Bet: No way Jose
Race 4:
Tricky race this one.
Don’t write off the old boy, (4) Mississippi Prince. Recent runs have been OK without being great and has been freshened for this. Should be our leader and give a sight.
(12) Jemoma Alpilage is 2/2 this prep and was a winner here last start over 1650m. Will get back and run into this late. A bit of rain would help her chances.
The X-factor is (14) Natoya. Had five runs this prep, some good and some plain. Changes stables and 35 days between runs. Does have the ability to win and Thompson is a key booking for her. Look for a positive sign in the market for confidence.
Selections:
(14) Natoya
(4) Mississippi Prince
(12) Jemoma Alpilage
(13) Cool Music
Suggested Bet: No
Race 5:
They were riding (4) Let’sfacethemusic forward and he was OK, but a bit soft late. Have ridden back the last couple and been much stronger late. From the inside gate, surely they sit 4-5th and don’t spend a penny in the run. Looks a suitable race.
Haven’t been sold on (1) Braveheart but it has been very consistent since joining the Gollan stable. Track played in his favour last start but with the good gate and claim, he’s a factor again.
(3) Larado has a great overall record (5:3:1:0). Given a rev up in the recent trial to win and should be ready to go first-up.
Selections:
(4) Let’sfacethemusic
(3) Larado
(1) Braveheart
(9) Shaggy
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6:
Gollan doesn’t miss a beat when it comes to tracks and maps. (4) Tiger Tie looks the leader at a strong pace. That then sets it up for a horse like (11) Zoubaby to be the one flashing late over the top.
He also has (5) Bossed Up who can sit not far off that good tempo and he was a sharp improver 2nd up. Rock hard fit now and this is a suitable target.
(3) Pre Eminence had been out of form but bounced back last week with a very good run. On the quick backup and in a very good stable.
Selections:
(5) Bossed Up
(11) Zoubaby
(3) Pre Eminence
(4) Tiger Tie
Suggested Bet: Win (5) Bossed Up
Race 7:
Lots of horses going well here but no stars amongst them.
(10) Trafalgar Square has been good at both runs since joining the Munce stable. Winner in a CL2 before a strong run beaten 1.4L in a CL3. Thompson, decent gate and might sit closer here.
(9) Headhunter lacks a turn of foot but I think he is still underrated. Needs some luck from the draw but trials have been OK and can be strong late.
I’ve always had time for (1) Larrikin Rogue but the get-back style means he doesn’t win many. Big field and may get buried a long way back again. Has the ability to win but needs a lot to go right. The key seems to be have him fresh and 46 days between runs looks ideal.
(5) Hellova Nature was a decent winner at the coast and then runner up at Rosehill in a Midway. Going well but another that needs a good ride/luck.
Selections:
(1) Larrikin Rogue
(10) Trafalgar Square
(5) Hellova Nature
(9) Headhunter
Suggested Bet: (1) Larrikin Rogue and saver (10) Trafalgar Square
Race 8:
Six of these went around at Ipswich against each other where (2) Call Da Vinci was the best of them. Four of these drop in weight while Call Da Vinci rises 3.5kg and (1) Navy Pilot rises 3kg. Both have class and can still be around the money.
I thought (13) Lockyer was good at Listed level first up (first run since gelding operation) and was three wide the trip last start at Ipswich and solid. Drops to a feather weight with a good jock and the only issue is a poor gate. I’d roll the dice early here and try to find a spot midfield or better.
(3) Smexy was also good there. From the good gate can get a nice run and her best form is more than good enough.
(16) Rough Cause has been good at both career runs to date. Leading on this track is a positive, as is the light weight. Might lack class but those factors give him a chance.
(10) Crash The Party was the best maiden in Qld until the win last start. Has upside but wide gate and beat nothing last start. I’ll risk her myself, but can win a more suitable race soon in my opinion.
Don’t think (9) Portofino is that good but on speed, no weight and Thompson means he can win.
Selections:
(13) Lockyer
(3) Smexy
(16) Rough Cause
(9) Portofino
Suggested Bets: e/w (13) Lockyer
Race 9:
Couple of the faves coming out has weakened this race.
(9) Town Crier might not have the class of a lot of these but has been in great form all prep. Just run down late last start and drops 5.5kg to 52kg here. Can give some cheek on top.
(5) Restonica, (6) Give Giggles and (12) Caspernova all hopes in a very open race. (11) Pocket Full can be considered now the faves have come out.
Everything is telling me to look at the light weights but the top ones do have the class.
Selections:
(9) Town Crier
(5) Restonica
(6) Give Giggles
(12) Caspernova
Suggested Bets: Win (9) Town Crier
