Best Bet: Race 7 No. 1 Tennessee Bound
Next Best: Race 6 No. 5 Queen Peta
Race 1
(2) Blue Shield has been unlucky not to have won his maiden yet, and this is a brilliant opportunity to do so. He will race on pace with the premier jockey at the meeting aboard, and he is entitled to be a short-priced favourite, though I have no interest in backing him.
(9) Diamond Eye was well supported on debut, raced poorly, then resumed this campaign with a good run over 1005 metres at Sale. He finished well relative to the race and will certainly be better suited over six furlongs. The worry, though, is how far back he may get, as he does not have much speed from the barriers.
(11) Here’s Matilda has jumped out as though she has ability, though I wonder whether 1200 metres will eventually prove to be on the left-hand tail of her distance range. Her dam, Bali Beach, is a half-sister to 2018 Melbourne Cup winner Cross Counter.
Selections
(2) Blue Shield
(9) Diamond Eye
(11) Here’s Matilda
Suggested Bet: No bet.
Race 2
A very difficult race.
(2) Harsh was heavily backed into favourite at Morphettville, beaten less than a length by Wudzz, who has since started favourite in the Banjo Paterson Series Final. He will be ridden conservatively and drops back in distance, which is some query.
(6) Timeonlees has improved markedly recently, winning by six lengths at Mildura last start. Perhaps he was flattered by the pace and the very slow horses that followed him, but he won well nonetheless. He will lead again, which may be a significant advantage, given the two market leaders will more than likely be ridden conservatively.
(1) The Devil In Her showed improvement last start in a higher grade of race. She draws slightly awkwardly for a mare without an abundance of early pace and must shoulder 60kg. Her best is more than good enough, though.
(3) Whistle Down was heavily backed before doing nothing at Casterton last start. She does, however, have a few ratings over this course and distance that would render her competitive here.
Selections
(2) Harsh
(6) Timeonlees
(1) The Devil In Her
(3) Whistle Down
Suggested Bet: No bet.
Race 3
(16) Salt Spray may appreciate an inside draw, allowing him to hold a more prominent position. He is better than the form guide would suggest in his last two starts.
(10) Ant has been good in three runs this campaign and is ready to peak fourth-up. The only worry is how far back he will be, but he’s more than talented enough.
(2) Bluestone drops back in distance after a short layoff. He can run well, but it would surprise me if he were able to win a race over less than a mile and a half in this grade.
(8) Ceremonious has improved with each run since joining the new stable. He can win again.
Selections
(16) Salt Spray
(10) Ant
(2) Bluestone
(8) Ceremonious
Suggested Bet: No bet.
Race 4
Little interest in this race.
(5) From A Distance is the sole overlay and is expected to improve dynamically from two runs in dreadful conditions.
(13) Trangoojahray may be the best horse in this race, but he hasn’t done much racing in the last year. He has jumped out well, and I marked him $6, so there is no edge for me.
(3) Bons To Riches can make her own luck on speed.
(10) Zorro’s Flight is ready to run to a peak for the campaign now, third-up.
Selections
(5) From A Distance
(13) Trangoojahray
(3) Bons To Riches
(10) Zorro’s Flight
Suggested Bet: No bet.
Race 5
A terrific race, and terribly hard.
(10) Glam Award was reasonably well fancied in a strong race on Australian debut. She can settle further forward this time and is to be ridden by Willo. Significant improvement is expected from her first-up run.
(11) Tan Tat Delight has been unsuited in two runs this preparation. I’d have preferred she had a jump-out between runs, though.
(12) Baltic Blizzard was inside 3/1 in a decent race last start, which must be taken into account after his dominant maiden win first-up. He is ready to peak now.
(9) King Maywin has been supported since markets opened, and rightfully so, after a strong win on the synthetic.
Selections
(10) Glam Award
(11) Tan Tat Delight
(12) Baltic Blizzard
(9) King Maywin
Suggested Bet: No bet.
Race 6
(5) Queen Peta won in blisteringly fast time on debut. The pace was frantic, she travelled into the straight as though she were going to win by four, and that is exactly what she did. She will improve from her debut too, which she will no doubt need to, but she is more than capable of Saturday-grade racing based on that performance.
(11) Miss Lola has won two consecutive races and deserves her place in the market. She will have her supporters, and rightfully so.
(2) Faraway Dream has displayed talent, but may be some query over six furlongs.
(4) Tennessee Song can pick up the pieces if they overdo the pace in front.
Selections
(5) Queen Peta
(11) Miss Lola
(2) Faraway Dream
(4) Tennessee Song
Suggested Bet: Queen Peta to win.
Race 7
(1) Tennessee Bound should be twos on. Next race.
Selections
(1) Tennessee Bound
Suggested Bet: Tennessee Bound to win.
Race 8
(17) Mahershala started prohibitive odds to win his maiden, racing away with fast late sectionals to win easily. He will improve on that this time and maps well.
(3) Stay Humble resumed well at Mornington last start and can be competitive in a race of this quality from a slightly better than midfield position.
(12) Artbeat came from near last at Cranbourne over 1000 metres, which is difficult to do, though the pace was strong.
(18) Tsarine may be able to settle forward and run well if she gains a start.
Selections
(17) Mahershala
(3) Stay Humble
(12) Artbeat
(18) Tsarine
Suggested Bet: No bet.
