Summary of Best Bets:
Race 1 #3 Cabaletto – Competitive race but love the way they have managed this horse.
Roughie: Race 3 #7 Written Acclaim- Freshened and trialled well. Small e/w @ $26
Turf Talk:
- Rail 0.5m
- Weather the big query this week.
- Between Thursday-Saturday, anywhere from 8mm to 67mm predicted on BOM. Aren’t they brave!
- We will work on a Soft 5-6 sort of track and update closer to the races.
- That means they will most likely want to get off the fence and be 5 or 6 horses off in the straight.
- Have been confident at Doomben, but not so much with this set up.
Key stats:
- Ben Thompson just keeps riding winner. 6 from last 18 have won at time of typing and some decent chances again today.
- Been waiting for the Hoysted stable to go on a run and they are going well now. They have won 12 of last 50 with ROI +7%. Only one runner (Break Free) but it can run well.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
(3) Cabaletto only had a few runs last prep and was going through the grades. I like the fact they pulled up stumps aft that and gave her time. Nice trial win lately and might have improved again here.
(4) Seymour Stars has won 3/3 and always have to respect a ‘winner’. This is a jump from a Port Macquarie CL2 but had to fight there and got it done again.
I’ve always liked (5) Hey Daisy. She was a winner last start but didn’t beat much there. Was dominant though and still very lightly raced.
(7) Galactic Star was very good at both runs in initial prep. Thompson stays with the horse and recent trial was very good. Not sure about that barrier this time of the day.
Selections:
(3) Cabaletto
(7) Galactic Star
(4) Seymour Stars
(5) Hey Daisy
Suggested Bet: Win bet (3) Cabaletto
Race 2:
Interesting quick back up for (1) Akkadian Emperor. Had everything in his favour last week but got the job done in good style. This is easier but jumps 4kg and that’s after the claim. Probably wants it as dry as possible.
I’ve always thought (8) Lovey Dovey would be a Saturday grade mare and she gets her chance. Won two in a row before a freshen and had been strong late all prep. Wet is no concern.
Looked a great race for (9) Prochester but the rain is not ideal. If it is dry, he can win. Changed stables from Victoria and won a decent class 1 in good fashion. Should be well placed up here and win more races.
Selections:
(1)Akkadian Emperor
(9) Prochester
(8) Lovey Dovey
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3:
You had to like the win of (1) Areprice on debut. On speed, probably sited by track that day but did a number on the rest of them. Can only improve off the run?
(7) Written Acclaim went around in a decent race on debut. Nice, solid effort there and then freshened. Recent trial was very good and expecting improvement here. Surprised it opened $26.
Best of the horses on debut might be (3) Boomtowns who is well bred, trialled well and is the Thompson/Gollan combo.
Selections:
(7) Written Acclaim
(1)Areprice
(3) Boomtowns
Suggested Bet: Small e/w (7) Written Acclaim
Race 4:
Thought (1) Esperanza and (4) Summer Sensation were great debut’s but they draw the outside gates here. If they find some cover it might not be too bad in the straight. Both have upside and good ability.
(2) Cherry Bomshell hammered in the betting and won by 6.7L last time out. Thompson stays on top and looks the one they all have to beat.
(3) Elusive Capital bumped into some handy ones at her first prep and could be a better horse this time in work. No official trials so watch market, but she can win.
(9) Night Market led and them bolted in at the trials. Will be on speed, in Gollan stable and could be a handy one.
Selections:
(2) Cherry Bombshell
(9) Night Market
(1) Esperanza
(4) Summer Sensation
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5:
(3) Brindavan has been good for Gollan and probably now rock hard fit and ready to show best. Winner 2nd up in a plain race. Never catching the winner last time but ok through the line.
(9) Rock Hard Love just wants rain. A very good wet tracker and Harley is a good booking. The more rain that comes, the more confident I would be.
(4) Just Flying was always with Heathcote, Went to Gollan for the new prep, had two runs and now back to Heathcote after he’s fit? Gotta be a story there? Always needs a couple of runs to show it’s best, might be ready?
(5) Rezone won his first three runs this prep and looked winner again last start until the 100m. Beaten by one in form and big gaps back to the rest of them. Must respect while in this form.
(6) Pure Alpha is a dead set non winner but a change to Gollan and racing our horses means he should win a few. Watch market but the freshen is no concern.
(8) So Long Farewell has been good this prep and was a winner this track/trip last start. Only a bm68 but did it in style and looks to be one that can keep improving in this stable.
Selections:
(9) Rock Hard Love
(8) So Long Farewell
(3) Brindavan
(5) Rezone
Suggested Bet: e/w (9) Rock Hard Love if wet
Race 6:
Buggered if I know what changed in (7) Noble Conqueror but he is a new horse. Won two on the trot at this track in good fashion and drops 4kg off the last win. Hard to beat again.
(6) Nails Murphy also in career best form and just nailed by Nobel Conqueror last start. Meets that horse 2.5kg better at the weights and key booking of Thompson is perfect.
(10) Quothquan is handy but can be frustrating as he doesn’t get the job done very often. Rock hard fit ad can be strong late.
(11) Just Flying was always with Heathcote, Went to Gollan for the new prep, had two runs and now back to Heathcote after he’s fit? Gotta be a story there? Always needs a couple of runs to show it’s best, might be ready?
Selections:
(6) Nails Murphy
(7) Noble Conqueror
(10) Quothquan
(11) Just Flying
Suggested Bet: No bet.
Race 7:
Theme of the day, another very even race.
Loved what (7) Freeland did last prep but the stable were doing amazing things at the time. Head tells me she may just need this run but can win without surprising too.
(8) Sultry Siren lacks a little turn of foot to put races away but some rain can bring her into this race. She is consistent and ready to show best 4th run back.
Hoysted stable have found some form and timing might be right for (13) Break Free. Has a good overall record (9:4:1:1) and can build on that here. Gate 4 means they can sit in the first 5-6 horses and I would love to see them hold her up as long as possible and give her the last crack at them.
(2) Flying Destiny has been good, (1) Restonica was great last prep and (11) Savagery Vibe a good winner last start. All some hopes.
Selections:
(13) Break Free
(8) Sultry Siren
(7) Freeland
(2) Flying Destiny
Suggested Bet: Small win bet (13) Break Free.
Happy to take on (11) Savagery Vibe at $2.50.
Race 8:
No doubt the obvious is (1) Earn To Burn off recent form. Dominant win fresh and then come to town and scored after being well supported in betting. The opt to carry the 60kg with Maloney and the rain would be no concern.
(2) Get Ready Lass is a ripper and was runner up to the toppy last start. Meets it 2kg better off and may be forced to the centre of the track which could work well for her.
(3) Isti Star is another good one and gets Thompson on top. Draws outside the fav and may just sit on its outside shoulder all race. This is the right trip and has more wins in store.
Watching and following market with (5) Forgotten Spirit, (11) angel Ladder and (12) Crypto Miss who all have ability.
Selections:
(3) Isti Star
(1) Earn To Burn
(3) Get Ready Lass
(11) Angel Ladder
Suggested Bets: No bet
Race 9:
Big fan of (2) Exotique Miss but she was horrible last prep and no official trial this time in. Must keep an eye on the market as the Toowoomba mail doesn’t stay secret very often.
(1)Hatchet is airborne and won two on the trot. Is a better horse over the road though. 10 starts at EF without a win but has 7 placing’s. Wet track and this jock suits.
(3) Battlefield is a very consistent horse in a stable I love. Always some of the best late splits and good record this track/trip (3:1:2:0).
(5) Hell will be the leader but has mixed form this prep. Could lead them up and win easily or stop late and neither would surprise. Won or placed in 9 of 10 at the 1200m.
I probably continue to underrate (9) Pocket Full but he doesn’t win often these days and more a place chance probably.
Selections:
(1)Hatchet
(5) Hell
(3) Battlefield
(2) Exotique Miss
Suggested Bets: no
Race 10:
Gee this is tricky. Hard way to finish.
How do the thrill seekers feel about (5) John Rambo? Edge out of the track is the key for him but punters have to have nearly had enough. He was brave again last start and just ran into a good one, but that seems to happen a bit to him. Gate suits, gets his chance, again.
(8) Castillian is a much better horse with the sting out but was beaten a long way fresh. Watch the market with him.
Gee you have to be forgivin if leaning to (10) Free Carry but it was too bad to be true fresh. Wide gate is not the end of the world for him and does have a good 2nd up record.
(7) Ser Joh has been consistent, this track is suitable, handles all ground and goes in exotics.
Maher brings (17) Vienna Vixen and carried 52kg. Handles all conditions and being wide may not be bad this time of the day.
Honestly could name another five horses and miss the winner.
No interest in a bet here at all.
Selections:
(5) John Rambo
(8) Castillian
(17) Vienna Vixen
(7) Ser Joh
Suggested Bets: No way.
