Summary of Best Bets:
Race 1 #7 First Mission – Tough race but feel he has the most upside.
Race 4 #12 Heavenly Impact – No luck or bad tactics lately, this should work out well at double figures.
Race 9 #5 Exotique Miss- If she brings her best she is very well placed.
Turf Talk:
- Rail True
- It has been very wet on the coast but drying weather leading into the weekend.
- Feel track will just have the edge out of it and give them all a chance.
Key stats:
- Angela Jones has a ROI of +39% at time of typing and has a very good book of rides all day long.
- Mark Du Plessis has ridden 10 of his last 50 to win and ROI +43%. Has a surprisingly good set of rides today also.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
(7) First Mission has been nominated and scratched in a lot of races recently. Can they be repaid for their patience? He is well bred and I think he will go through the grades this time in work. Trial was good, draws well and some speed up front would suit.
(2) Flying Destiny has been in the finish all three runs this prep. Handles dry or wet, peaks 4th up and gets 2kg claim. Has a bit to like.
(10) Fragile Love has a very good finish on her when things go right. Just needs some luck in the run.
Always watch the money for (16) King Of Minto and this stable at the GC.
(3) Estrondo has been going well enough to trouble them and gets Thompson on top.
Selections:
(7) First Mission
(2) Flying Destiny
(10) Fragile Love
(3) Estrondo
Suggested Bet: Win bet (7) First Mission
Race 2:
Gee whiz this is competitive.
Bugger all between a lot of these last time out. Have liked what (6) Dominant Darcy has done, won 3 of 4 this prep and has the good on speed pattern or can sit on leaders backs.
(9) Spiethtacular has been good for Gollan and will be on speed. Just the last 50m against these a little query.
(1) Abender is fitter and could improve sharply. Wide gate the query. I’ve never really been with (12) Zoufani but the run last start was excellent and she might have some good upside left in her.
(11) Amusantes finished off well last time out and draws better here.
Could name another 5 and still miss.
Selections:
(6) Dominant Darcy
(12) Zoufani
(9) Spiethtacular
(1) Abender
(11) Amusantes
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3:
A fair bit relies on the surface at this stage.
I’m still sick as to how (5) Rock Hard Love didn’t win last start. The $10 looked a steal and he went straight past but lifted the head on the line. Wetter the better for him but if he runs the 2000m strong he is the one to beat. Would rather wet than good track though.
(2) Prince Levi is a horse in form. Last three runs have all been solid and can get a great run from the inside draw. The drier the track the better for him, just has to lump the 60kg.
(7) Absolute Sunshine just kept making ground last start and this trip looks suitable now. Good jock on top and looks one of only a few winning chances.
(11) Lovey Dovey is in career best form and most runs this prep have been very good. Like the fact she has had the 2200m runs while others are jumping in trip.
Selections:
(5) Rock Hard Love
(2) Prince Levi
(7) Absolute Sunshine
(11) Lovey Dovey
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4:
(5) Rhapsody Chic for Freedmans has a few positives here, fitter 2nd up, likes edge out and blinkers on. Stable are brilliant but the gates not ideal.
Hard to knock a horse like (8) Chief In Charge who has won three on the bounce. Has a turn of foot and still has upside. Got the sweetest run ever last time out but wide draw this time and a few questions.
(11) Boom Shot is a non-winner but this is the type of race he can pop up in. Both runs back have been good and set to peak here for Gollan. Draw is ok and should be flashing late.
(12) Heavenly Impact is screaming to win a race and has had the best L200m in his last four runs. Got the tactics horribly wrong last start and they have to land in front of 4-5 horses here.
(14) Sultry Siren is 1/1 on the track, consistent and worth thoughts in exotics.
Selections:
(12) Heavenly Impact
(5) Rhapsody Chic
(8) Boom Shot
(8) Chief In Charge
Suggested Bet: Split win bets (5) Rhapsody Chic and (12) Heavenly Impact or e/w (12)
Race 5:
(8) Power Of The Brave is airborne but I don’t love the gate. Won in Sydney before coming north and beating Yoyo Yeezy and Moonhaven. Then narrowly beaten by (1) Wanda Rox. That horse has won or placed in 12 of 14 at this trip and she deserves to be topweight.
(3) Taltarni Fields draws to get the perfect run in transit and around the soft 5 surface is ideal for him. (5) King Yoshi has won 8 of 18, dominant last start and set to peak 4th up.
(7) Smapi has been freshened and this stable doesn’t get it wrong. Won’t know himself with 52kg and looks a real winning chance with that weight.
Selections:
(7) Scampi
(3) Taltarni Fields
(1) Wanda Rox
(5) king Yoshi
(8) Power Of The Brave
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6:
What are we meant to do with (1) Better Blitzem? Has won 4/4 up north but the last was a two horse race. I have liked what I have seen but so hard to line up.
(2) Final Crusade was excellent on debut but when he thought the job was done he pricked the ears and got run down. I thought they would try some headgear here but just going with natural improvement from the experience.
(7) Esperanza is a beauty but draws poorly and has to spot them a start. Has been strong late in races and just needs some speed on up front.
(11) Brave Etoile was very good on debut and sure to strip fitter from the run. Cross over nose band goes on and is another I would have liked some winkers or other gear to go on. Reckon she can improve here and can win.
(9) The Autumn Affair won a weak race fresh but in good style and is the wrong price at $21.
Selections:
(11) Brave Etoile
(1) Better Blitzem
(9) The Autumn Affair
(2) Final Crusade
(7) Esperanza
Suggested Bet: Box trifecta 1,2,7,9,11
Race 7:
Not that much speed here. Duric Jumped on (2) Hatchet and has won three on the trot. The last couple have been dominant and hard to find a knock. Maybe better over 1200m but has been strong late recently.
(3) Anemacore has always promised plenty and is starting to show his class now. Has won 3 of 4 this prep and the 1400m is ideal. Hasn’t run on this track but seems fool proof these days. Needs a good ride early from the gate with 59.5kg.
(4) Battlefield is a beauty and very consistent. Just hard to see him turning the tables on Hatchet from the last run.
Well (11) John Rambo, could today be the day? Probably not but he has the ability. It has been 11 runs since he has won and in that time he has been $5 or under in 9 of them. Opens fav again. He gets a lot in his favour here. Drops to just 52.5kg, great barrier and loves the sting out of the track. Could he…..
Respect (12) Rhapsody Chic for Freedmans, fitter 2nd up, likes edge out and blinkers on.
Selections:
(2) Hatchet
(3) Anemacore
(11) John Rambo
(4) Battlefield
(12) Rhapsody Chic
Suggested Bet: Hard to go past (2) Hatchet
Race 8:
Full field and this could get a bit sticky at stages and best ride might win.
(2) Earn To Burn has been hard in the market all prep and form is solid. Drops 3kg here, set to show best 4th run back but has to overcome a bad barrier.
The class is (1) Call Da Vinci who is a genuine blacktype horse. You’d think he needs 1600m to show best but with some speed on and level weights I would not be surprised to see him go right over the top late.
(3) Fabulantes is in career best form and just has the bad gate to contend with. Has been getting back in races and letting down like the good horse he is. Moor knows him well and just needs some luck.
(5) Saxobushi had been in great form until the Magic Millions Guineas where outclassed and hoof filler went on. 50 days between runs so watch the market.
(6) Hunters Mate back to 100m suits. (7) Galactic Star was very good late fresh and has upside. (10) Smexy has shown plenty of ability and draws well.
Selections:
(1).Call Da Vinci
(3) Fabulantes
(5) Saxobushi
(2) Earn To Burn
(6) Hunter’s Mate
Suggested Bets: No bet
Race 9:
Very interesting race.
(4) Wanda Rox is in amazingly well at the weights. 103 rater and a winner of a good race last time out. She is a way better 1000m horse though and the last 100m here is a query.
Only horse rated close to her is (5) Exotique Miss who is a 97 rater. She loomed fresh but was a bit weak late and needed the run fresh. Loses the apprentice and gets a leading senior on her. Decent gate and can map well. Handles all tracks and hard to beat.
(1) Considered has an incredible record (8:5:1:2) and is just a winner. Love the fact she comes off a strong 1400m win and rock hard fit now. Gate is the concern but she handles all ground and would love a drop of rain.
(6) Cherry Rose is more than up to these on her day and has a great record (20:8:6:0). Just always hard to line that NQ form up but she has measured up here before.
(8) Zoubaby is flying for Gollan. Speed on will suit and she just wants it as dry as possible to show her best.
Everything says (10) Margot’s Deel will need the run and further to show her best. She has class though and well worth the shy at the stumps first up.
Selections:
(5) Exotique Miss
(1) Considered
(10) Margot’s Deel
(8) Zoubaby
(6) Cherry Rose
Suggested Bets: Small win bet (5) Exotique Miss
Race 10:
I have trouble finding (2) Sibaaq but the last two runs have been full of merit and has placed in both runs at the track. This is easier than the Parramatta cup G3 last start.
(3) Glory Daze was always going to need the fresh run and may need another. Super flat footed and looked as though he’d run last on the corner. Picked back up the last 100m and good through the line. Could be the sharp improver.
(8) Quothquan is so consistent but just doesn’t win. Handles all tracks, rock hard fit and will look the winner again at some stage.
(6) Demon Darb had been going better than it read on paper but I did not expect the last start win. Off that run he has to be a chance again.
(4) Encoder has very good ability but has mixed form this prep. I’ve lost a bit of trust but does seem to run well here most of the time.
Been against (9) Noble Conqueror for all his wins and on when he doesn’t so I have had enough. Some chance again but not for me.
Selections:
(8) Quothquan
(3) Glory Daze
(6) Demon Darb
(2) Sibaaq
Suggested Bets: No
