Stakes racing dominates the Caulfield program, offering our first glimpse of several autumn Group 1 hopefuls. Chief among them is Derby winner Observer, who resumes in the Autumn Stakes.
There must be some concern whether he has sufficient pace for a fast seven furlongs at Caulfield, but he’s rated well over this distance before and is likely to eventuate into a miler in time. This is scheduled to be his lone lead-up to the Australian Guineas, so expect him to be forward in condition.
Davida should control the pace after climbing the grades with fast wins at Cranbourne and Geelong. He’s the pundits’ pick, race fit, on-pace, and has rated well recently. Wagering is all about price, however, and I can’t justify his price relative to Observer and Planet Red.
Observer can settle outside him, apply pressure from the four-furlong pole, and overhaul him in the concluding stages.
The market’s second elect is the Guineas runner-up Planet Red, who has had Observer’s measure twice. From an awkward draw, he’ll be ridden conservatively, looking to stay over the top of the leaders in the last furlong. He’s a likeable three-year-old who closed well in the McKenzie Stakes, was given plenty to do in the Guineas Prelude, then stayed strongly in the Guineas to finish within a length of Autumn Boy.
All of that said, his current price of 3/1 looks awfully short given his likely settling position. He’ll need to be in the form he was on Guineas Day to win, perhaps better.
Observer, meanwhile, is trading just shy of 3/1, which undersells what he achieved in the spring and takes a soft view of his capabilities over seven and eight furlongs. I make him a 2/1 chance, and if the track favours leaders, he becomes even more likeable.
Ambassadorial has raced twice under the care of Tony and Calvin McEvoy and has quickly rediscovered the form he’d been in for Gai Waterhouse and Adrian Bott. Both runs have come in fast time over Flemington’s nine furlongs and returned strong figures.
This race caters directly to his strengths. This field concedes speed and quality, thus he can dictate affairs from the lead, applying pressure from the six furlong pole and breaking the race apart prior to the straight.
I don’t envisage a scenario in which he doesn’t start red odds, so anything better than even money is of tremendous value.
Harry Coffey is an adequate rider, and numbers would suggest that he does his best work over middle-distance and staying trips, heavily exceeding market expectation across a large three-year sample.
I can justify marking Ambassadorial closer to $1.70; thus, black odds should be taken.
Ahha Ahha has been a slow-burning filly turned mare, taking six starts to break her maiden. She’s been in good order this preparation, winning once from five runs, and has had excuses along the way.
She steps to the mile for the first time, which must be some concern, but her most recent run over seven furlongs at Geelong was encouraging. She finished quickly toward the end of a genuinely run race and gave every indication that the extra furlong may be in her favour, rather than something to be concerned about.
If she reproduces that level of form, there isn’t another runner in this field capable of matching her figures at the weights. From a handy draw, Melham should be able to settle her prominently, and provided she runs out the mile, she’ll be perfectly placed to take advantage.
Grey Ice made her seasonal reappearance at Eagle Farm, but ran out of condition over the concluding stages. She was brilliant in her last campaign, winning at Caulfield before holding her rating at Flemington on Anzac Day.
She’s since trialled twice, appears to have returned in good order, and gains plenty with 54kg and the engagement of Craig Williams. She is seemingly overlooked by the early market, and I give her a great chance to upset this field, provided Ahha Ahha doesn’t run to form.
The Kevin Heffernan is another outstanding race. Zou Sensation heads the market, but doesn’t necessarily headline the field. All Star Mile winner Tom Kitten returns to racing and, somewhat surprisingly, finds himself as the market’s second elect at 5/2 behind the gallant on-pace handicapper.
“Handicapper” may sound harsh, but it’s meant endearingly. Zou Sensation is a terrific horse who’s already earned his connections north of a million dollars in prizemoney. But Tom Kitten is a weight-for-age star.
The pace should be honest, Sandpaper, Veight, Jennilala and Zou Sensation all have the intent to lead. A strong pace caters to Tom Kitten’s strengths. Even accounting for a lack of race fitness, it ensures that he has the opportunity to run to his best form. If he can return to the heights he reached last autumn, he’ll overwhelm this field in the straight.
I can’t price Tom Kitten any longer than 2/1, so 5/2 must be value.
Watch: Tom Kitten win the 2025 All-Star Mile
Veight also makes some appeal, with a brilliant return in the Australia Stakes. I make him closer to a 5/1 chance as opposed to 13/2, and he warrants a small saving bet.
Seven of the twelve fillies resume for their Autumn campaigns in the Peter Le Grand Stakes. Alpha Sofie has attracted plenty of market support, and I agree with the sentiment.
That said, I’m more intrigued by Signature Scent, who did plenty right in four runs for Ciaron Maher last preparation. She wasn’t entirely clued on to racing in the spring, but was talented enough to make an impression. Her recent trial was scintillating, and time away may have been exactly what she needed to mature. With a southerly at their back out of the chute, she’ll enjoy every favour, and if she has progressed, which I think she has, 6/1 is too big.
Balance makes her debut for Clinton McDonald and has trialled extremely well. I’ve had something small on her, too.
Suggested bets:
- Race 1 No.3 Ambassadorial @ $2.10
- Race 5 No.1 Observer @ $3.90
- Race 7 Backing both No.1 Tom Kitten @ $3.50/No.2 Veight
- Race 8 Backing both No.4 Signature Scent/No.12 Balance
- Race 9 10 Backing both No.8 Ahha Ahha/No.9 Grey Ice
