Good Will Hunting: Pakenham Cup

Skippers Canyon is an intriguing runner, rising sharply in grade after finishing fourth in BM74 company at Caulfield a fortnight ago. He was seemingly outpaced over 1800 metres, missing the start and chasing the entire way. He made significant late headway over the concluding two furlongs, running the sixth quickest last 200 metres of the meeting in what was far from a slowly run race. The jump in both class and distance is far from ideal, but he’s evidently talented and capable of making the leap, particularly in what is, admittedly, a relatively weak Pakenham Cup.

He can be slow away, but if he’s within striking range on the turn, I can see him unleashing a sprint that can overhaul some somewhat stagnant stayers.

I’ve marked him $4.50, his current quote, and that was factoring in every ounce of improvement I could reasonably find. I was hoping for a price closer to $8.00, banking on the market taking a set against him given the rise in grade and trip, so I won’t be backing him if this price holds. He’s the sort of runner I’d usually roll the dice on for his upside against some stagnant stayers, but it appears the market has already identified that angle, and at the current quote, I simply can’t get involved.

Ziryab was narrowly beaten by Black Run but meets him 2kg better at the weights, which can be crucial over a staying trip. For mine, Ziryab and Black Run should have their market positions reversed. Now fifth-up, at his preferred distance, Ziryab has a sensational chance to win the Pakenham Cup.

When you isolate his runs beyond eleven furlongs, he’s placed in all three, all in fast time, including a brave effort in the Warrnambool Cup. He’s supremely suited by the way this race is likely to eventuate, and the current $8.50 doesn’t give his chances enough credit.

Alenquer’s last win came in Ireland in the Group 1 Tatts Gold Cup in 2022, when beating Cox Plate winner State Of Rest. He’s been winless for 1301 days, but he’s racing in excellent form for Lindsay Park and consistently running to the level required to win what is a below-standard edition of the Pakenham Cup.

He rode a strong pace in the Zipping Classic, loomed up to Light Infantry Man, but faded late to finish fourth. Again, he maps to take a prominent position in a race in which the pace won’t come close to the ferocity of the Zipping Classic, and he’s certainly capable of giving a sight at double-figure odds. He’ll be on my side for sure.

Etna Rosso must be given a chance based on his consistency this preparation. He was well supported in the Group 1 Metropolitan Handicap, starting $9.00, and although he ran below market expectation in finishing twelfth, the market’s confidence in him is significant.

He has produced a similar performance rating in each of his past three starts, a figure just shy of the likely winning standard, which keeps him firmly in the mix.

He enjoyed a better run than Alenquer in the Zipping Classic relative to the pace, but ultimately, he ran to a strong level of form. I have him marked slightly longer than the current market, but I’m not opposed to him by any means.

Without having a firm opinion, I’ll likely be taking a position on Alenquer and Ziryab on raceday.

Outside of the Pakenham Cup, my best bet of the day comes in the form of Jenni Gone Bonkers, who was sensationally backed in the Twilight Glow Stakes a fortnight ago. As mentioned, she was heavily supported into odds-on off the back of a dominant maiden win at this track in early November. She remained at seven furlongs last start, and the numbers suggest she was simply beaten for speed.

A mile on a bigger track looks far more suitable, and everything points toward a peak performance against what is, admittedly, a mediocre field of fillies and mares. She doesn’t need to improve to win, but I think she will. I expect her price to continue to shorten until race time, and punters should be taking the $2.40 currently available.

Will’s Pakenham Cup market vs bet365 (prices correct as a 3pm, 12/12/2025).