Racelab’s Matt Collum has taken a forensic look at the field using their ratings system, to assist working out who’s best credentialed to take out this year’s Hong Kong Mile.
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In The Lab | Hong Kong Mile | Group 1 1600m
The track – unique features of Sha Tin course, advantages PIR/barriers:
- Turf, “A” Course, Good
- Lane 1 performs best for all distances from 400m – finish with a POT of 23.6%
- Settling on speed is the most profitable position in run
Speed map & tempo:
Expecting an even tempo here over the mile:
Positive/negative jockey/trainer worth highlighting:
- K W Lui & Craig Williams are currently striking at 33.3% with a POT of 139.6%
- P F Yiu & C Soumillon are returning a solid 106% POT when combined
Past 5 winners with Racelab Performance Rating:
This table outlines the Racelab rating achieved by each of the past five winners when taking out the Hong Kong Mile. It gives an indication of the level required to win the race in recent years for a few different levels of weight carried, margin spread and race quality.
| Date | Horse | Age | Sex | Weight | Margin | Racelab Rating |
| 08/12/24 | Voyage Bubble 6G | 57.0kg | 1.3L | 111.8 |
| 10/12/23 | Golden Sixty 8G | 57.0kg | 1.5L | 112.1 |
| 11/12/22 | California Spangle 4G | 57.0kg | 0.3L | 111.9 |
| 12/12/21 | Golden Sixty 6G | 57.0kg | 1.75L | 111.3 |
| 13/12/20 | Golden Sixty 5G | 57.0kg | 2.0L | 112.5 |
Racelab benchmark likely to be required to win this year’s edition of the Hong Kong Mile:
Based off the final field, their recent form, and potential Racelab Prime Rating, the below figures give an indication of what horses will need to achieve based on their weight carried under the WFA scale to win.
| Weight | Rating |
| 57.0kg | 110.5 |
The Racelab Prime Ratings for each horse can be seen in the screenshot below.
The ratings/market:
Based off a range of data, speed map and recent form, Racelab has come up with its own 100% market, which is compared to the current market in the table below. Value exists where the Racelab price is lower than the current price.
The verdict and betting strategy:
Field of fourteen runners in the Hong Kong Mile. Speed should be decent with Copartner Prance booting up from the low draw. The key lead-up races are the BOCHK Jockey Club Cup and the BOCHK Private Wealth Jockey Club Mile. Galaxy Patch was given a perfect steer by J-Mac when winning the mile after finishing off nicely in a suitable fast pace – he might not be so lucky this time. My Wish went around at $1.40 last start and was the only runner to stick on in an unfavourable tempo. From gate two he will enjoy a cosy run throughout and has fitness on his side. Voyage Bubble has some work to do from the wide draw but is right in this with the right run. Beauvatier went to a new level last start winning the Challenge Stakes at Newmarket and comes here fresh. Any give in the track will enhance his chances and can run a big race at odds.
Suggested Bet:
My Wish (WIN)
Beauvatier (WIN)
My Wish & Beauvatier (Quinella)
Legend:
| Name | Definition |
| Prime Rating | Expected rating figure for the upcoming race based on historical performances |
| Job To Do (JTD) | The minimum rating required for each runner to win the race using a combination of metrics: Benchmark, Weight Carried, Mean Weight and Distance. |
