Betsy’s Set: Manikato Stakes night

Race 1

Speed comes from (1) Home Rule, (6) Jacks On Ice and (10) Capper Thirtynine – they should roll along.

(13) Daggers is going to get a lovely run first-up, gelded. He was super first-up in the $1 million Inglis Sprint last campaign and he has looked really settled in his jump-outs coming back as a gelding. This is an ideal kick off point and I have him marked clear favourite.

(5) Sunshineinmypocket will run well fresh. He’s drawn to get a good run, in the running line, just forward of midfield. Latest trial was very soft, but he moved well enough.

Reckon (1) Home Rule is better suited at 1400m than 1200m and gets back up in the weights, but he’s airborne and makes his own luck on speed.

Selections:
(13) Daggers
(5) Sunshineinmypocket
(1) Home Rule
(14) Fission

Betting suggestion: Like Daggers.

Race 2

Few promising horses go around here.

Like (5) Oliveanotherday. He should’ve won by a mile on debut at Warracknabeal before atoning with a soft maiden win at Geelong last time out. Love the step to 1200m, he’s drawn for a great run and I think he has plenty of upside.

The form around (1) Prestar reads very well. Won a handy midweek race before being far from disgraced in the Run To The Rose. He can press forward and make his own luck.

(7) Barari comes through a strong race at Sandown last start and think she’s ready for the 1200m now.

Selections:
(5) Oliveanotherday
(1) Prestar
(7) Barari
(6) Rohesia

Betting suggestion: Backing Oliveanotherday.

Race 3

Good speed. (2) Unflinching, (3) Beast Mode, (9) Bold Print roll forward at the very least.

Really like Unflinching here. He loves the 955m at The Valley and it looks an absolute set play from the Mathrick stable. As he generally does, he has been trialling up like a rocket, and while there is good speed in the race he has the most toe of the lot. Like the claim for Logan Bates, the barrier and the equicast off for a horse that has clearly had some feet issues in the past (previously had synthetic hoof filler as well).

(8) Grand Larceny has been kept fresh leading into this with just one jump out. He is going to need some luck off gate one as a few will cross him, but he has the right man aboard in Blake Shinn. Think he’s too short at $2.50, but a chance nonetheless.

Selections:
(2) Unflinching
(4) Rich Fortune
(8) Grand Larceny
(5) Harry Got Styles

Betting suggestion: Think Unflinching is the best on the card.

Race 4 – Stutt Stakes

The default leader is (1) Vinrock. (6) Bingi is the one who might apply a bit of pressure, as could (8) Decanted.

The key will be whether they want to put much pressure on (1) Vinrock, or just let him cross, lead, dictate and likely win. He had it pretty soft at Flemington last time out when running the Exford Plate, but he also carried a penalty there and meets many rivals from the race better at the weights. Doubt the mile pulls him up. He’s the horse to beat, but I have him rated $2.10-$2.20.

Liked the way Vinrock’s stablemate (4) Prestige Ole hit the line first-up in that Exford Plate. He should derive good fitness benefit from that having been first up and the mile is ideal.

(2) West Of Swindon was three-deep throughout and strong on the line behind Vinrock. The inside alley should enable him to settle behind the leader – he’s got a chance.

Selections:
(1) Vinrock
(4) Prestige Ole
(2) West Of Swindon
(6) Bingi

Betting suggestion: Happy to watch.

Race 5 – Scarborough Stakes

They will go like last week’s pay here. (7) Esha, (5) Stardom and (4) Vein Girl are all very fast fillies. (11) Shinjina will be right there, too.

Gee, (9) Point Barrow is an exciting filly. She overcame a significant track bias to break her maiden first-up at Bendigo before a dominant, yet soft, win at Sandown last time out. She beat a handy field last start and only looks better suited up to 1200m. Assuming horses can make ground, she looks awfully hard to beat.

(4) Vein Girl comes down from Queensland and, for mine, she will be in this a long way. Her Doomben trial and Flemington jump-out leading in have both been excellent. She gets James McDonald – which is a plus, and she can sit in the first three. One of the key chances and over the odds.

It will be interesting to see how Esha bounces back from tackling the older horses in the Moir last start. She got well and truly softened up there, ultimately being found to have pulled up lame – I’d want to see her bounce back before diving in at the shorts. The other query is the end of 1200m.

Selections:
(9) Point Barrow
(4) Vein Girl
(3) Icarian Dream
(6) Prestige Snitzel

Betting suggestion: Backing (4) Vein Girl and (9) Point Barrow.

Race 6 – Feehan Stakes

(5) Pride Of Jenni leads.

Not giving a great deal of unique insight here but this just looks (6) Treasurethemoment’s race to lose. Gate one in a small field could be a bit tricky, but with Pride Of Jenni likely to string them along, this promising mare should be able to land on her back and then slowly ease off the fence as the field spreads. The little query that has to be factored in is the setback she had that saw her miss the Makybe Diva, and for that reason, I couldn’t back her at the short price.

The farcical tempo didn’t suit (1) Tom Kitten who pulled his head off in the Makybe Diva Stakes. Given that was a virtual barrier trial, probably a positive that he stays at the 1600m here. Strong tempo should see him find a good rhythm.

Great to see Declan Bates back on Pride Of Jenni. No knock at all on Craig Newitt who is a great frontrunning rider, but Declan was the making of this mare with his daring rides that ultimately brought out the best in her. This veteran mare has trialled as you’d expect leading into her first-up run, she goes well at The Valley and she’s obviously going to control the race – the obvious knock is it seems her best is now behind her, with two significant failures in three recent starts.

Selections:
(6) Treasurethemoment
(5) Pride Of Jenni
(1) Tom Kitten
(2) Attrition

Betting suggestion: As a racing fan, hugely interested in the contest. As a punter, have absolutely no interest.

Race 7 – Manikato Stakes

Maybe (1) Rothfire and (9) Alabama Lass the most likely leaders. Not a huge deal of speed, but it’s a 1200m Group 1.

(6) Lady Shenandoah is the best horse in the race. She should’ve won the Concorde first-up when desperately unlucky. Already seen Tiger Shark come out of that Concorde and win at Caulfield last week. Ability is not the query – the map is. She’s drawn the outside alley, but for a 1200m Group 1 there isn’t a lot of speed, so it wouldn’t shock to see J-Mac push forward here. If she gets the breaks, she wins.

Can’t see (8) Skybird not being in the finish. Thought she should’ve won the Moir Stakes first-up. She’s a mare that has a ripping turn of foot and love her drawing the middle of the line – it should ensure she gets a clean crack at them late.

(9) Alabama Lass and (2) Baraqiel are going to be in it a long way. Suspect they both settle in the first four and both are better at 1200m than the 1000m of the Moir last time out.

(5) Magic Time continually produces very consistent ratings – those which are strong enough to see her in the finish of this. She should get a very soft run from gate one and 1200m is her absolute sweet spot.

Selections:
(6) Lady Shenandoah
(8) Skybird
(9) Alabama Lass
(2) Baraqiel

Betting suggestion: Want to see how track is playing re: Lady Shenandoah. The bet I can have is 1×4 Skybird who looks the value.

Race 8 – Stocks Stakes

The Let’s Elope Stakes is the dominant form reference heading into this. There wasn’t a lot separating those at the top of the market in that race.

(5) Abounding is flying this time in. She arguably should’ve beaten Magic Time first-up at Caulfield and again didn’t have the best of luck when narrowly going under in the Let’s Elope last start. She draws well and should get every chance – the knock is she’s very well found.

(3) Rumbled Again split Attrition and Desert Lightning here at The Valley last time out. She has a liking for this track and gate one will give her a soft trail into the race. She ran well in the race last year when forced to cover ground around the home bend, if Harry Coffey can sneak a run with her up the inside she has the talent to win a race like this at big odds.

(10) Aberlour is the map horse. She looks to control the speed here and dropping back from a mile to 1500m looks a plus to my eye. She’s a tough, honest, consistent mare who should be in this a long way.

Selections:
(3) Rumbled Again
(10) Aberlour
(5) Abounding
(7) Oh Too Good

Betting suggestion: Backing Rumbled Again/Aberlour.