Turf talk:
- No rain for a while so surprised the track has come up a Heavy 9, hopefully it’s a touch better than that.
- They’ve only had one meeting here since night racing finished in April so track should be in reasonable condition.
- Rail out 4m, light winds = probably leaning to those on speed. Momentum is key at Cranbourne.
Key stats:
- Jabez Johnstone continues to top the jockey ranks, going at 23% his last 100 rides (25.4% PoT for the punters)
- Peter Moody and Katherine Coleman have had a quiet period with just four winners from their last 50 (-63.1% PoT) and nine winners from their last 100.
Race 2
Fascinating race, this.
(11) Majestic Son looks the best horse in it. His recent trial win over Civic Square (ran OK at Sandown Wednesday) at Cranbourne was excellent. Showed a really nice turn of foot. The concern I have is he was slowly out in that recent jump-out and if he is again, from gate one, he could be buried away on the fence. Also a touch worried that he has had a 1050m and 1000m jump-out and now debuts over the same trip, would rather see him at 1100/1200m. However, he looks very smart and it will be no surprise at all if he wins. Specking a couple at odds.
(8) Reina Del Rio trialled up nicely prior to her debut last campaign in a hot Maiden; she was just fair there but there’s been stacks of winning form to come from it. Her first jump-out this time in was excellent; he latest was plain but she did wear earmuffs in the run which she may have resented (doesn’t wear them today). She’s worth a few bob at $31.
(12) Bossy Babe trialled nicely prior to her debut at Pakenham where she blew the start and then over-raced horribly. She was home the best last 600/400/200m splits of the meeting in what was a very good run. She has jumped better in trials previous and draws much better today – if she can bounce and settle near the speed she will prove awfully hard to beat.
Might have egg on my face but can’t cop (6) Koko as a $3.50 second favourite. Thought she was very plain at Sale and think she’s more a 1200m horse.
Suggested bet: Backing Bossy Babe/Reina Del Rio at odds. Quinella 8,11,12. Trifecta 4,8,11,12.
Race 3
Keen on (9) Alien Angel and I can get her as short as even money. Was sent out a short priced favourite on debut last campaign and while she was beaten, she ran well, with several subsequent winners in behind her. She has trialled up very nicely on three occasions this preparation, both nearer the speed and taking a sit. She has a lovely turn of foot and the 1300m is ideal for her fresh. The only thing she will need is a good ride off gate one, but suspect McNeil drives up and sits leader’s back. With even luck, she’s the horse to beat.
(5) Night Guard gets blinkers for the first time, which he wore in a recent jump-out and went nicely. Has been wide, no cover, in each of his runs to date and the latest was in a strong Maiden. The main danger to the favourite.
Suggested bet: All things being equal, Alien Angel looks a clear standout.
Race 4
Moderate race.
The 2yo (14) From Yesterday gets his chance but sheesh, he was bog average last start and while lacerations sustained might be some excuse, I couldn’t be charging in at the shorts here.
(10) Wolves’ Den comes through the right race first-up at this track. Was well supported there and the little step in trip is ideal. Should be favourite, for mine.
The best value in the race is (9) Tempered Edge at $26. Forget the debut over 1000m, was far too short and against strong opposition. Loved how he hit the line in a recent Mornington jump-out and straight to 1500m signals intent.
Suggested bet: Backing Tempered Edge 1×4 E/W and having something on Wolves’ Den. Like the race.
Race 6
Think (4) Room For Bingo and (5) Struggle Steet look to lead from (1) Nasraawy and (8) Miss Cotoletta.
(5) Struggle Street goes like a bomb fresh and she has trialled nicely for this return. Last campaign was her first for Reece Goodwin and outside of being beaten on a pretty firm deck at Woolamai first-up, she had a good campaign. Statistically the heavy track record of 3:0-0-0 doesn’t read awesomely, but ran pretty well in a strong field behind Balastier on a heavy deck one day and did win on a Soft 7 at Warracknabeal. She gets her chance fresh.
(8) Miss Cotoletta is way down in grade and gets the claim to offset. She only had one jump-out leading into her first-up run and generally goes better second-up then fresh.
(1) Nasraawy is racing well and will be in the finish again.
Suggested bet: Backing Struggle Street, saving Miss Cotoletta.
Race 7
(7) Godtfred Kirk was 45 days between runs at Pakenham last start and had to work hard in the middle stages of the race before just peaking late. That race was run in slick time (easily the quickest of the 1200s that day and 0.5 secs outside the track record) and he was forced to carry 63kg. It was a huge run. Draws well, gets back down to 60kg and this frankly isn’t any harder.
The only danger I see is (9) Too Tough. Not sure how he wasn’t made to go back to the trials after staying in the gates at Sale last start… He’s a real talent but given what he did last start, the way he can miss the kick and fact I’m not sure these tighter tracks are really his go, I can’t price him anywhere neat the $3.30 on offer. Include him in the quaddie, for sure, but unders.
Suggested bet: Keen Godtfred Kirk.
