Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: R5 (3) Skycatcher
Next Best: R1 (6) Miss Scandal
Best Value: R4 (11) Wootton Way
Best Roughie: R2 (8) Royal Chic
Turf talk:
- Showers are forecast in the lead up to race day with an already wet track. Working off the basis the track will be well into the heavy range.
- The rail pushes out from the previous meeting and will be in the +4m position for the entire circuit.
- In wet conditions, the inside few lanes in the straight will likely be inferior and runners who settle positively in the run should have an advantage.
Stats that matter
- For such a big stable, Chris Waller’s recent numbers have been impressive: 17 winners from his last 100 runners and a POT of +34.1%.
- Rachel King is riding in super form, with 20 winners from her last 100 rides and a POT of +44.3%.
Race 1
(6) Miss Scandal was well supported on debut in a Group 3 but came up with an issue post-race, so while disappointing, she can be forgiven. She went out to the paddock and has been given more time. She comes here fresh after two trials and maps for a positive run, so expecting her to be a sharp improver.
(9) Girl About Town resumes for her second career start. She was moderate on debut, but that was in a stronger race. She maps better here today, so expecting improvement from the debut run.
(1) Celestial Charm is one of six runners making their debut in this race. She looks the best of that lot based on her trial form and the last trial she won was in wet conditions, so expecting a strong first-up showing.
(8) Bollente Bella rounds out the numbers. She resumes for her second prep having competed in stronger races up in Queensland in her debut campaign. Expect she finds this easier and can improve.
Selections:
(6) Miss Scandal
(9) Girl About Town
(1) Celestial Charm
(8) Bollente Bella
Suggested Bet: (6) Miss Scandal – Win
Race 2
(8) Royal Chic resumes today and looks well set up in these conditions with a light weight and favourable race map. Her two best career runs came on wet tracks, so expect her to be capable of handling the conditions.
(5) Artgirl has a fitness advantage on rivals, which could be key for her chances. She maps well from a low barrier, so expect a positive run dropping back in distance.
(1) Snitzel Miss finished midfield when resuming in a stronger race at Randwick. She is fitter today and should find this easier, so expecting she can improve.
(3) Incremental showed improvement to run into the placings in his 2nd start, he has fitness on his side and with an apprentice claim he gets in well at the weights so can likely race in a positive position.
Selections:
(8) Royal Chic
(5) Artgirl
(1) Snitzel Miss
(3) Incremental
Suggested Bet: (8) Royal Chic – Each way
Race 3
(4) The Iron Star was doing his best work late at Hawkesbury last start when running on to finish a close second. He should be suited by the slight rise in distance here and that previous run was on a wet track, so conditions should prove no issue.
There doesn’t appear to be a great deal of speed on in this race, which should see (9) So D’oro get a soft lead. If she is given a soft time of it out in front, she could prove tough to catch in these conditions.
(2) Midnight Luna recently won two in a row before heading to Randwick and contesting a stronger race. She should find this a touch easier and should be capable in wet conditions.
(8) Wounder was well supported last start but never really got into the race. The rise in distance should suit, but the risk is how he handles a genuinely wet track, having never been tested on the surface.
Selections:
(4) The Iron Star
(9) So D’oro
(2) Midnight Luna
(8) Wounder
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4
(11) Wootton Way is on the quick back-up having run third at Warwick Farm last week behind an impressive winner. She looked to handle the heavy conditions well last week, so expecting her to have no issues again here. At peak fitness and rising in distance, she should be the one to beat.
(1) Airworthy resumes today with two solid trials under his belt. He has been a first-up winner previously, so can fire fresh, and maps to be a potential leader, which should suit at this track.
(5) Jaegers is at peak fitness and will be better suited dropping in grade today. The easier race should see him improve on recent finishes, provided he can handle the wet conditions.
(8) Real Baker was an easy winner at Bathurst last start when short in the market. This is a step up in grade, but he can handle a wet track and has good speed, so looks likely to settle forward, which should be ideal.
Selections:
(11) Wootton Way
(1) Airworthy
(5) Jaegers
(8) Real Baker
Suggested Bet: (11) Wootton Way – Each way
Race 5
(3) Skycatcher went back when resuming and hit the line strongly late for second. He looks suited rising in trip, fitter second-up, and is expected to handle a wet track given his big maiden victory in New Zealand came on a very wet track. Conditions look likely to suit and give him every chance to go one better.
(6) Louie’s Legacy has won twice on a heavy-rated track, so is another runner who looks likely to have no issues in the conditions. He was solid when resuming at Canberra and has a good second-up record, so can find improvement.
(5) Format resumes off the back of three trials, so expect he will be in good order fresh. He looks the likely leader of the race and will be the one to catch.
(2) Hereward looks every chance to improve on his recent runs now he is at peak fitness 3rd up. He won his last 3rd up run and has a good record at this track/distance set up and the wet conditions should suit. Expecting improvement.
Selections:
(3) Skycatcher
(6) Louie’s Legacy
(5) Format
(2) Hereward
Suggested Bet: (3) Skycatcher – Win
Race 6
(2) The Extreme Cat has mixed form so far this prep but gets ideal conditions and should appreciate the wet track. He is dropping slightly in grade as well, so expecting improvement on last start.
(7) Concordia Wind resumes. She has performed well fresh previously and won her only other start on a heavy rated track. There looks likely to be a quick speed in the race which may set her up to be running on late.
(4) Tenderize is dropping in grade from his most recent runs, he has a decent record in wet conditions so expect the heavy track will be no issue for him.
Scratchings helps with the race map for (11) Show County. With much of the speed coming out of the race he can potentially lead, which should suit, needs a soft run out in front to help with handling the wet conditions.
Selections:
(2) The Extreme Cat
(7) Concordia Wind
(4) Tenderize
(11) Show County
Suggested Bet: No bet
