Turf Talk
- The track is rated as a Soft 5 at time of writing, with some showers still to come in the lead-up days. Despite clear weather on race day, expect to work off very soft to heavy conditions.
- The rail returns to the True position for the first time since April 1.
- In similar conditions, it has been an advantage to settle forward of midfield in the run.
Stats that matter
- Bjorn Baker continues to be one of the most in-form stables at this meeting, producing 21 winners from his last 100 runners with a POT return of +21.7%. His career record at Warwick Farm alone has returned a POT of +16.4%.
- Rachel King has a strong book of rides and is in super form, having ridden 20 winners from her last 100 rides with a POT return of +42.4%.
Race by race overview
Race 1
(2) Olympian was doing his best work late in the run at Hawkesbury last start, but was always going to have a tough time with a big weight and a wide barrier. He appears better suited today rising in distance off that performance, and the last time he was at 1600m he ran less than 1L off a Group 3 win. This is much easier.
(3) Coulter hit the line strongly last start over the 1600m and may find this an easier race. He maps for a softer run than he got last time, which should help.
(1) Azarax maps as the likely race leader jumping from barrier 1 and could prove tough to catch if conditions favour on-speed types.
(6) Spice Prawn’s only career win came at this track. She likely gets ideal conditions today, but will need an even playing track as she will likely be back in the run.
Selections:
(2) Olympian
(3) Coulter
(1) Azarax
(6) Spice Prawn
Suggested Bet: (2) Olympian – Win
Race 2
Looks every chance to be a messy race with a full field made up mostly by runners on debut and a tricky race map.
(2) Celtic Spy was overrun when he resumed at this track, but gets into this race fitter now and again maps for a positive run, so can improve enough to be a winning chance.
(11) Our Emperor makes his debut here off the back of three impressive trials. Tim Clark takes the ride and he jumps from barrier 1, so expect him to be forward in the run, which will suit.
(15) Iommi looks the next best of the runners making their debut based on early trial form, and he will have the handy Waller and McDonald partnership saddling him up.
(10) Like An Eagle trialed well at Rosehill recently so suggest he has enough talent to win with the right run but may need luck early jumping from a wide barrier.
Selections:
(2) Celtic Spy
(11) Our Emperor
(15) Iommi
(10) Like An Eagle
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3
(7) Hello Captain resumes today. He showed talent in his debut preparation when winning easily on the Sunshine Coast before heading straight to the paddock as a winner. He maps for the ideal run and has been well dialled up with two recent trials, so with any improvement from his debut campaign, he should be capable of rising through the grades.
(5) Bruce I Am was a winner on debut, then was well supported again at Wyong and ran a close second. This race looks no harder, and he can settle closer in the run today.
(6) Fairway To Heaven is in form, having won two of her last three starts. This race is likely a step up in grade, but she maps to likely lead the race again, which may suit in these conditions.
(8) Nandina is dropping in grade today which could help give her the scope to find improvement on her last start performance. She jumps from barrier 2 so could settle closer in the run today which should suit.
Selections:
(7) Hello Captain
(5) Bruce I Am
(6) Fairway To Heaven
(8) Nandina
Suggested Bet: (7) Hello Captain – Win
Race 4
(11) Superfabulistic hasn’t missed the placings in four runs this prep, including a last start win over this track and distance set up. She rises in weight for this, but should again be a winning chance in similar conditions.
(3) Hovland hit the line strongly last start over this track and distance set up, and coming into this race fitter now could give him enough improvement to be a winning chance.
(6) Mojave River showed improvement in her 2nd Australian start when rising in distance to the 1600m. She hit the line well last time and now remains at the suitable 1600m trip but at peak fitness now 3rd up she can improve again and should be strong late.
(7) Sting In The Tail ran into the placings when resuming, drops slightly in grade for this today and is fitter now and suited in the conditions.
Selections:
(11) Superfabulistic
(3) Hovland
(6) Mojave River
(7) Sting In The Tail
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5
(8) So Suave comes back to NSW for the first time this prep and is at peak fitness for this, having contested a stronger race at Bendigo last start. He maps well from barrier 1, so likely gets the run of the race and should prove hard to hold out late with a favourable run.
(5) Black Babylon was moderate when resuming at Randwick, but looks likely to be much better suited here today fitter second-up and rising to a suitable distance. Expect he can improve sharply.
(2) Just Flying has a wide barrier, which could make it tough for him early, but if he can use his speed and cross with little trouble, he should find this an easier race than his last few starts, which could see him fighting out the finish if he gets the soft run.
(6) Blacklist hit the line well last start so rising in distance for this today looks likely to suit and he can handle a wet track so conditions should prove no issue.
Selections:
(8) So Suave
(5) Black Babylon
(2) Just Flying
(6) Blacklist
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6
(13) Confidentiality kicked off this campaign with an easy win and then ran second at Randwick over the 1000m, doing his best work late. Rising to the 1100m will suit and dropping in grade sets him up well.
(1) Glorious Moments resumes off a long spell. He won both starts last prep before the spell and if he can quickly find that form, he should prove hard to beat here. But with the wide barrier and gap between runs, he may have improvement to come with extra fitness.
(6) Formal resumes. He has a consistent first-up record and gets in well in the weights after an apprentice claim, so could surprise here at big odds.
(10) Heuristic travels well on wet ground so he could appreciate the wet track and put in a strong 1st up performance.
Selections:
(13) Confidentiality
(1) Glorious Moments
(6) Formal
(10) Heuristic
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7
Looks a very competitive race to finish this meeting.
(9) Pasadena has won two in a row this prep and looks to rise in level again. His key advantage may be the race map, given some of the stronger chances have wide barriers and he can potentially get the softer run jumping from barrier 1.
(5) Deep Pleasure is at peak fitness third-up into this prep and has a good record at this distance. He ran second at this track and distance set up to kick off the campaign, so expect he will be suited.
(4) Supermassive kicked off the prep with a strong win carrying a big weight. He was then well supported next start at this track and distance but got overrun late. He will again likely be well supported given his talent, but the wide barrier may make it tough for him early as it is expected to be a lot of pressure beneath him.
(3) Pimlico is in super form having won 2 runs this prep and is hard to knock in a similar race, the wide barrier could make it tricky early but if he can use speed to cross quickly and find a position with little trouble he should be around the mark.
Selections:
(9) Pasadena
(5) Deep Pleasure
(4) Supermassive
(3) Pimlico
Suggested Bet: No bet
