Summary of Best Bets
- Best Bet: Race 5 (2) Nextonixs
- Next Best: Race 4 (2) Autumn Frost
- Value Bet: Race 10 (10) Sassy For Sure
Turf Talk
- Clear and warm weather is forecast for race day and clear weather in the lead up days so expect the meeting to be run on a Good 4 rated track
- The rail pushes out slightly from the previous meeting here and will be +6m 1000m – W/Post & +3m remainder
- Generally prefer to give a slight advantage to runners who settle in the first 4 in running on The Parks track
Stats that matter
- Dan Sheperd only brings 1 runner to this meeting but his team is in good form having won 15 of their last 100 starts returning a POT of +37.3%. The stable also have a positive POT of +8.8% at this track alone
- Off the back of an Adelaide Cup Day double, Brooke King continues her good form riding 10 winners from her last 100 rides with a POT of +33.8%
Race by race overview
Race 1
(2) Never Ordinary was well supported on debut in a stronger race than this and ran well to finish 2nd in that. She looks hard to beat in this if she runs up to that level but will be very short in this market. (1) Lalor was solid in last weeks 2YO Magic Millions feature and looks the likely main danger based off that run. (3) Neveu & (4) Tikkamos both make their debuts in this and raced together in a recent trial that was won by Neveu, given that would give him an advantage of the two again here.
Selections:
(2) Never Ordinary
(1) Lalor
(3) Neveu
(4) Tikkamos
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 2
(5) Sir Myka is the fit horse in the race 3rd up today which may prove to be his advantage, he ran 2nd in his last start to Mathematician which is a strong form line as well for a race like this. He may catch them on the hop today with that fitness advantage. (1) Mating Call resumes for her 2nd campaign here today having impressed in her debut prep including a good effort in the Group 1 Thousand Guineas, she was a winner 1st up last time in work and may be the class runner of this field. (4) Kalmana resumes, he showed good form last prep and may find the lead here which will suit, can fire fresh but may be better later in the prep. (3) Light The Night backs up having been competitive in a stronger race last week, he should be better suited back down in level today.
Selections:
(5) Sir Myka
(1) Mating Call
(4) Kalmana
(3) Light The Night
Suggested Bet: (5) Sir Myka WIN
Race 3
(12) Sicilian Princess has had a few chances now for a breakthrough win but do feel she is close having run well last time behind a handy winner, she maps well here again and is light at the weights, gets her chance. (14) Thundara comes out of the same last start race as Sicilian Princess and ran well there, suggest she will be fitter for that run and could be an improver. (7) She Rex has good speed and looks the likely leader of this race which may suit if the track is favouring on speed types. (13) Silent Answer comes across from Victoria having contested so good maidens over there, she may find this easier but looks likely to get back in the run so needs an even track.
Selections:
(12) Sicilian Princess
(14) Thundara
(7) She Rex
(13) Silent Answer
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4
(2) Autumn Frost ran a close 2nd in a similar race to this in his last start and has now run 2nd twice in a row. This race appears no harder and expect he is likely suited rising slightly in distance. (1) Stokomo has also strung together a set of placings this prep and appears close to a breakthrough win, expecting a positive run from him in this set up back to the 1300m. (7) Synthesise resumes, she found a good level last prep so should be capable in this grade if she can fire fresh, jumps from barrier 3 so should be in a handy position in the run. (8) You’resogolden has good speed and can lead, a handy 2kgs comes off her back so she may take catching if she gets a soft run of it out in front.
Selections:
(2) Autumn Frost
(1) Stokomo
(7) Synthesise
(8) You’resogolden
Suggested Bet: (2) Autumn Frost WIN
Race 5
(2) Nextonixs has been hitting the line strongly this prep which should set her up well in this race as it looks likely to be run at a quick speed. She thrives over this track/distance set up and gets an ideal run here so expect she can carry on with her strong recent form. (9) Not Surprised crosses from Victoria and looks likely to put some speed into the race, she jumps low from barrier 1 and has a light weight so could take catching. (7) Bristler is another runner with good early speed and has finished 2nd in his last 2 starts so expect in a similar race he should be around the mark. (6) Over Yonder has found good form and can be hitting the line strongly off the expected fast tempo.
Selections:
(2) Nextonixs
(9) Not Surprised
(7) Bristler
(6) Over Yonder
Suggested Bet: (2) Nextonixs WIN
Race 6
(2) Scandalize is at peak fitness this prep and has found strong recent form so is suited at the 1400m distance again. He maps as a likely leader which is expected to suit at this track. (5) Ramasis was impressive when winning in maiden grade last start having also impressed on debut, he looks a progressive type and capable of winning again if he handles the rise in distance. (9) United Legend is expected to be fitter 2nd up here today so will be suited rising to the 1400m, he won his only other start when over this distance, gets the right run from barrier 3. (3) Ironbar was an impressive winner in an easier race last time and takes a step up in level now today, looks likely to need some luck as he will be back in the run but a rise to the 1400m will suit.
Selections:
(2) Scandalize
(5) Ramasis
(9) United Legend
(3) Ironbar
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7
(8) Tyusix was met with strong market support in the Pt Lincoln Cup and was hitting the line strongly late to finish a close 3rd. She is in strong form and looks suited rising in distance today. (5) No Rumours will find this an easier race than the Group 3 he contested last time out, suited down in grade and will have no issues seeing out the trip. (2) Lauding usually takes a few runs into a prep to find his best form and may get to that point here today now that he is 3rd up. He has a super record 3rd up (4:2-1-0) so can start to find some improvement. (1) Andrew’s Memory has won 2 in a row now and looked to appreciate the rise in distance in his last start, how he finished in that race suggests he will appreciate the rise in distance again.
Selections:
(8) Tyusix
(5) No Rumours
(2) Lauding
(1) Andrew’s Memory
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 8
(4) Chillcuz is in career best form and comes into this race off the back of a good win at midweek level. She maps well here and gets in light at the weights with a handy 3kg claiming apprentice aboard, her recent form is good enough to progress. (1) All Too Mysti looks better suited dropping back in distance today where she has a consistent record, she was close in the finish last start behind Dirty Old Town who was placed in Listed grade Monday making that a handy form line for a race like this. (11) Vercelli has shown promise at trial level for some time and recently it appears to have clicked as she picked up a maiden win and backed that up with a solid 2nd last start. In good form and gets a good set up here from a low barrier with a light weight. (6) Flash Alice won well 1st up and finds herself here in a potentially easier race than what she contested last start, expect her to find a good position in run from a low barrier and can threaten at a decent price.
Selections:
(4) Chillcuz
(1) All Too Mysti
(11) Vercelli
(6) Flash Alice
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 9
(1) Flashing Steel flies over the 1550m trip having won 4/4 starts over this distance in his career. He drops in weight after a claim and looks likely to race on speed from a low barrier which should suit. (2) Annihilate produced a big finish late last start to come away with a win, his late sectionals were slick so will be suited rising in distance off the back of that run. (6) Following Sea should be better suited here fitter 2nd up and gets a favourable race map, expect him to have a level of improvement from that run. (4) Sparkup put in a bold effort last start with a big weight so will likely appreciate dropping some weight and remaining at a distance that he has had success over previously.
Selections:
(1) Flashing Steel
(2) Annihilate
(6) Following Sea
(4) Sparkup
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 10
(10) Sassy For Sure hasn’t yet found her best form this prep but looks a chance to peak here 3rd up today and will be most likely suited up in distance for the first time this prep, gets an ideal set up and should be hitting the line strongly. (2) Tough Talk has won 2 in a row and looks to rise in level again, this isn’t a huge step up in level and it is a similar set up to the race he won last time. (3) Cork Harbour is down in grade from his recent runs and may get race map favours from the inside barrier if the track is favouring on speed types, he looks a likely leader and will drop a handy 3kgs after an apprentice claim. (9) One More Song resumes today, she showed good talent last prep and her recent trials were good, the wide barrier could make for a tough run for her though and she may need luck in the run.
Selections:
(10) Sassy For Sure
(2) Tough Talk
(3) Cork Harbour
(9) One More Song
Suggested Bet: (10) Sassy For Sure EACH WAY
