Summary of Best Bets
- Best Bet: Race 5 (1) Shining Smile
- Next Best: Race 9 (12) Meleys
- Value Bet: Race 6 (1) Cruiserweight
- Best Roughie: Race 8 (7) Fine Future
Turf Talk
- Day 3 of the carnival and with clearing weather conditions over the weekend the track should be in good order, likely a Soft 5/6.
- The rail remains in the true position.
- It has been a slight advantage for runners who settle forwards of midfield in the run and expecting that will again be the case.
Stats that matter
- Recent Group 1 winner Brad Rawiller has five rides on this program. His recent record is strong with 17 winners from his last 100 rides to return a POT of +32.9%.
- Pat Kearney took out Friday’s feature and Race 1 yesterday. His stable is in form with 17 winners from his last 100 runners and returning a POT of +41.4%.
Race by race overview
Race 5
(1) Shining Smile has been moderate in his last few starts but should be much better suited here today dropping sharply in grade. It looks like a race likely to have high pressure on speed but from barrier 3 he can sit just off that hot speed in an ideal position and gets in well at the weights so could prove hard to hold out.
(5) Per Sempre is dropping in grade slightly for this and is at peak fitness now. If she can run up to her recent efforts she should be hard to hold out late but can’t afford to get too far back.
(3) Behaviour resumes down in grade, jumping from barrier 1 can potentially put him in a good spot for a soft run.
(8) Tapo has good early speed and is a proven first-up performer. With a light weight she can put in a good effort at a price here.
Selections:
(1) Shining Smile
(5) Per Sempre
(3) Behaviour
(8) Tapo
Suggested Bet: (1) Shining Smile (Win)
Race 6
(1) Cruiserweight was a big winner on debut at Newcastle and went straight out to the paddock. Resuming here having been given more time and looked good winning a recent trial at Flemington so if he has found a level of improvement this looks like a winnable race.
(7) Yuuki is in strong form having won two in a row coming into this. He is drawn wide but there doesn’t appear to be a great deal of early speed which gives him the chance to cross and put himself in a prominent spot.
(13) Queen Christine comes into this off a last start maiden win. In a tricky race map for some she can get a soft run from barrier 3.
(2) The Mean Fiddler resumes. He will likely have improvement to give over more ground later into the prep, but he did win first-up last prep and the stable is in super form.
Selections:
(1) Cruiserweight
(7) Yuuki
(13) Queen Christine
(2) The Mean Fiddler
Suggested Bet: (1) Cruiserweight (Win)
Race 8
SA visitor (7) Fine Future ran well to win two races recently before contesting a Group 3 and running well behind Arran Bay. He comes in fresh from that run and is a runner who does perform well fresh generally. He is drawn wide but has been hitting the line strongly so should finish off well here and is worth a ticket at value.
(4) Electric Impulse ran well to the line when resuming at Flemington. She is a runner who has a good second-up record and looks suited rising in distance.
(3) Cartoon Graveyard has been consistent in stronger races of late. He gets drier conditions today from what he got last start which should suit but needs luck early from the wide barrier.
(2) Precious Charm had little luck at Warrnambool in her last start. She comes into this race fresh which should suit and maps softly so expecting she can improve from that last start effort.
Selections:
(7) Fine Future
(4) Electric Impulse
(3) Cartoon Graveyard
(2) Precious Charm
Suggested Bet: (7) Fine Future (Eachway)
Race 9
(12) Meleys was knocking on the door for a win when stringing together four placings recently and finally broke through last start for a maiden win. She won in good fashion and good time and has confidence now so should be capable of going on with it from here.
(2) Kings Reflection won impressively at Warrnambool to break his maiden. He is capable of going on with it from here and a choppy track in the last race of the carnival would suit.
(11) Fenestella is drawn wide but has good early speed. If she can cross, she should land in a prominent position which should suit.
(15) Jackand kicked off this prep running worse than midfield in a stronger race. He can be a likely improver getting into a slightly easier race and rising in distance now fitter
Selections:
(12) Meleys
(2) Kings Reflection
(11) Fenestella
(13) Pharoah’s Daughter
Suggested Bet: (12) Meleys (Win)
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