Summary of Best Bets
- Best Bet: Race 4 (3) Aqua Storm
- Next Best: Race 8 (6) Em Sixty
- Value: Race 7 (1) Dashing
Turf Talk
- Day 1 of the 3 day carnival so we get the track in the best conditions. Clear weather conditions are forecast and the track is currently rated a Soft 7 so expect it to likely hold this rating.
- The rail will be placed in the True position, expect it to be even across the track.
- The track should present quite fairly but generally prefer to side with runners who can settle forwards of midfield.
Stats that matter
- Neil Farley nearly has a full book of rides today and has been profitable to follow recently. He has ridden 15 winners from his last 100 rides to return a POT of +46.6%.
- Will Gordon has a strong riding record here with a winning strike rate of 14.2% and a POT of +28.5%.
- Patrick Payne’s stable has been flying with 24 winners in his last 100 starters returning a POT of +26.2%.
Race by race overview
Race 4
(3) Aqua Storm sets up well here resuming for a new stable. He was well supported in two runs in his first campaign and managed to run into the placings despite having some excuses. He has trialled up well and maps for the right run so if he has any improvement from the debut runs he will be hard to beat in this. (7) Magnus Maximus has race fitness on his side having had the 2 runs so far this prep, he finished midfield last start having had to go back from a wide barrier but maps much better here today and can improve. (8) Pick A Symphony resumes, he was consistently in the placings last prep and may have improvement to come over more ground but looks fit after 2 trials and should hit the line strongly. (2) Angling For Info needs to find improvement on his last start but he could get a soft lead here and could prove tough to catch if he gets a soft run.
Selections:
(3) Aqua Storm
(7) Magnus Maximus
(8) Pick A Symphony
(2) Angling For Info
Suggested Bet: (3) Aqua Storm (Win)
Race 7
It has nearly been a year since (1) Dashing has had a start and he will have to carry a big weight, but I can make a case for him at big odds in a favourable set up. He is a strong first-up performer including winning The Wangoom first-up last prep, he has won here at Swan Hill and handles all conditions. He has had two trials leading into this so could return in good order off the long break. (9) Salsa Fellow is in good form having won two in a row and gets in light at the weights; he should have no issue in any conditions but can’t afford to get too far back in the run. (4) Fancify was solid in her resuming run at Flemington, she has been a mare who generally improves with a few runs under her belt so could be an improver fitter second-up now. (11) Gold Spirit takes a step up in level off the back of some strong form back in South Australia, he can push forwards and settle in a handy position and could take catching with a light weight on his back.
Selections:
(1) Dashing
(9) Salsa Fellow
(4) Fancify
(11) Gold Spirit
Suggested Bet: (1) Dashing (Eachway)
Race 8
(6) Em Sixty has mixed form this prep but looks at peak fitness now and gets his chance to improve getting back to a distance he is undefeated at and gets suitable conditions. If he can recapture the form he was producing at the end of last prep he should go close. (2) Dramaticus is in super form this prep with two wins from four runs, he again maps for a positive run from the inside barrier and will be around the mark again if he handles the wet track. (8) Geffina is also in strong form having won two in a row coming into this. She was a big winner last start so rising slightly in distance won’t hurt her chances and she will appreciate a choppy track. (1) Stop The Rock resumes well down in grade from last prep, he will have to carry a big weight but has won fresh before and at this distance so could surprise.
Selections:
(6) Em Sixty
(2) Dramaticus
(8) Geffina
(1) Stop The Rock
Suggested Bet: (6) Em Sixty (Win)
