Shaun Beirne has never been afraid to oppose a favourite when the price doesn’t reflect the risk. This weekend at Bet Legends, he’s again leaning on that discipline – questioning two well-backed runners at the Gold Coast and Flemington, not because they lack ability, but because the market is expecting too much.
As Beirne puts it, “They’re both good horses. That’s not the debate. The debate is whether you should be paying that price.”
Gold Coast R7: everything lines up… except the quote (and maybe the vet check)
There’s been plenty of chatter that this race will be run at a scorching tempo, but Shaun isn’t sold.
“I keep hearing it’ll be a very strong pace,” he says.
“I don’t see it that way. With the prize money on offer and how the race maps, I think it’s much closer to an average-run race.”
That scenario suits Warwoven perfectly. The favourite has produced strong time ratings in both wins to date and Shaun notes the margins could have been wider if he’d been fully tested.
“If you just look at the horse in isolation, there are no negatives. He maps to get a great run, the ratings are strong, and he’s clearly the one they all have to beat.”
So why take him on?
“The issue is the price. I just can’t get to the market number whichever way I look at it.”
While the market has identified three clear favourites, Shaun believes the real threats sit outside that group – particularly runners coming through a seven-day back-up.
Shiki is one of those. She has a defeat to Warwoven on her record, but Shaun is prepared to forgive that run.
“She came to the gates that day with blood in her mouth. My recollection is she hit her head, although it’s not in the stewards’ report. For me, she ran on fear that day, not comfort. I’m very forgiving of that margin.”
Tigroni also appeals as a genuine danger.
“She was very good last week from an impossible position,” Beirne says. “She maps much better here, and that alone puts her right into the race.”
Flemington R5: market asking for another leap
At Flemington, Shaun’s focus again is squarely on a favourite – this time one coming off a significant peak run.
“I’ve marked her off her last start rating,” he says plainly. “That was a spike personal best.”
The expected pace is moderate, and Shaun concedes the favourite settles on speed. But the concern isn’t map-related – it’s what the market is asking the horse to do next.
“The market is expecting her to improve another one-and-a-half to two lengths,” Beirne notes. “That’s not easy off a spike like that.”
He’s not ruling her out.
“She absolutely can win,” he says. “But at the price, I’m happy to play around her rather than dive in.”
That’s the Bet Legends philosophy in action. Respect talent, trust the ratings, and don’t let short prices talk you into bets you don’t need to have.
If you’re keen to back these faovurites, be sure to head over the Betlegeends.com.au and take Shaun on!
