Shaun Beirne doesn’t approach races purely as a bookmaker.
Long before Bet Legends, he was a punter and a form analyst, building markets from ratings rather than sentiment. That perspective drives his approach to bookmaking.
Boxing Day presents a couple of races where Beirne believes the market is leaning too heavily on improvement that hasn’t yet been achieved.
At Bet Legends, Beirne is comfortable holding his opinion when the late money arrives. Sometimes that means respecting a move. Other times, it means leaning into it.
Randwick: Beirne keen to keep Konsa safe, take on others.
Breine believes Konsa should be favourite in Race 1.
“If I’m pricing the race as a punter, he’s the one I want shortest,” he said. “He’s the most straightforward horse to line up.”
“He has been slow to begin in each of his two starts but late sectionals have been excellent.”
“He will only improve stepping to the mile.”
From there, Beirne sees reasons to push back against some of the popular runners.
Man Of Worth is respected, but Beirne isn’t convinced the ceiling matches the price.
“His Irish peak on my ratings is only fair,” he said. “And what he’s done in Australia so far hasn’t really moved that number.”
“He maps well and can improve, but at this stage he hasn’t shown me a rating that warrants being treated as dominant.”
Kumbaya brings talent, but also tactical risk.
“He got too far back last start,” Beirne said. “There’s no doubt he’s got sectional ability, but from barrier 13, trained by Waller, you’re almost certainly giving up too much ground again.”
“That’s fine if everything falls into place, but it’s not a profile I want to be short about.”
Beirne sees Toussaint as a key chance, but one the market may overrate.
“He should be second pick behind Konsa,” he said. “But for me, he’s more of a chop-out than a horse I want to build a book around.”
All of that shapes Bet Legends’ approach.
“As a punter, I want to be playing this race,” Beirne said. “As a bookmaker, that means we’re happy to be short Konsa, have Toussaint around him, and let the rest of the field into the book at prices.”
Sandown: Beirne keen to oppose Aviatress in the Christmas Stakes
Beirne believes Aviatress is racing well below her best.
“She’s a good horse and there’s no great knock on her,” he said. “But when you’re doing the ratings, the price – around $3.50 – just doesn’t stack up.”
Her recent numbers have been consistent, but well short of her peak.
“They’re solid, but they’re a fair way below her personal best,” Beirne said. “The market is effectively assuming about a length and a half of improvement.”
“That might happen, but you’re paying for it now.”
From both a punter and bookmaker’s perspective, that creates an opportunity.
“She could improve and still be under the odds,” Beirne said.
“At the price, we’re comfortable taking her on.”
If you want to back Aviatress, make sure you head to betlegends.com.au where you are sure to get top odds.
