Race 2 – 1000m Maiden (2.00pm)
#8 FARAWAY DREAM has had five jump-outs total and she’s been consistently good in each of them. She won her latest jump-out on the synthetic at Cranbourne in fast time for the morning and whilst she finished seventh in the prior piece of work, she never got a crack at them and went to the line with plenty in hand. Her two jump-outs in the winter were also solid. She’s a filly that jumps the gates well enough to put herself on speed but doubt she leads a horse like #3 SETA MURO. Linda Meech is going at 27% when she teams up with Trent Busuttin and Natalie Young. The only little concern is her latest jump-out was 1000m and she debuts at the same trip – prefer them going up in distance a touch – but she has the ability to be winning on debut.
#6 COSMIC ROSA seems to have jumped-out in shades of late but debuts without them. He has shown tactical speed and can use that inside alley to hold a spot handy to the pace. Jumped-out well enough to be competitive on debut.
#11 SHE’S OURVALENTINE had no luck on debut at Cranbourne behind Seven Oceans. She was scratched from a race at Kyneton earlier in the week and saved for this. She’s drawn well and can run a race.
#10 SCUSIES ran an improved race when the winkers and lugging bit went on at Echuca last time out. She’s shown ability in her three starts to date, just wonder if she wants further than 1000m? That said, she’s knocking on the door of a win.
Betting suggestion:
Backing #8 FARAWAY DREAM
Race 3 – 1200m Maiden (2.30pm)
This is a cracking maiden.
Horses don’t trial up much better than #7 CONCORD CONNIE. Sure, she’s won all four of her jump-outs, that easy to decipher from the form guide. But it’s the manner in which she’s done it that’s most impressive. She’s a filly with seemingly a ripping turn of foot. If there’s on chink in her armour it’s that she isn’t the cleanest beginner, but Lachie Neidorf has been on in her last two jump-outs so he should be awake to that. Despite this being a strong maiden, she’s the horse to beat.
#2 CONFLICT gets the blinkers on having run second in two strong maidens at Pakenham and Kyneton. He’d be a ‘good thing’ in most maidens but maybe runs into a very smart horse here. If Concord Connie doesn’t measure up to her trials then this bloke will prove awfully hard to beat.
Like the way #3 MYWIFEISNOTHORSE has trialled up. He has had a number of jump-outs at Cranbourne and has gone well in each. Expect Carleen Hefel to send him forward from a good draw on debut and it wouldn’t surprise at all if he ran a place on debut. Seems the value in the race at $23.
Betting suggestion:
#7 CONCORD CONNIE hasn’t been missed in early betting and is now in very tight at $1.75. Would want black figures to be playing, so keep an eye on the market- maybe the support comes for CONFLICT.
Could have something tiny the win, more the place on #3 MYWIDEISNOTTHERE at $23 +.
