Best Bets
Best Bet – R4 (2) Hovland
Next Best – R5 (3) Hello Captain
Value Bet – R7 (6) Formal
Track
- There are clear conditions forecast for race day but with recent weather there is a high potential we will still be on a heavy rated track. Likely a Heavy 8, perhaps improving closer to a Soft 7 depending on weather.
- The rail pushes out from the previous meeting here and will be +3m the entire.
- In similar conditions at the last meeting here two weeks ago, the track played fair and runners mostly came away from the inside lanes in the straight. Expecting a similar set-up today.
Stats
- Rachel King continues to lead the way for in-form jockeys. She has ridden 20 winners from her last 100 rides to return a POT of +35.3% and is booked for four rides here.
- The Hawkes stable only has the one runner at this meeting, but has been profitable to follow recently, saddling up 21 winners from its last 100 starters at a healthy POT of +23.3%.
Race 1
(6) Krasina made a solid return to racing when running fourth here early last month. She needs to find some improvement but contested strong races last prep and now has the extra fitness and is likely suited with a slight rise in distance. (5) Kinetic Kiss looks the best of the runners who make their debut. She has trialled strongly in her last two hit-outs and looks likely to be positive in the run. (11) Excelluna has run second in her last two starts and doesn’t look far away from a breakthrough win, but has to overcome a wide barrier in this. (10) Coral showed good speed on debut. She is drawn low again today, so maps to be positive, which should suit.
Selections:
(6) Krasina
(5) Kinetic Kiss
(11) Excelluna
(10) Coral
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2
(8) Our Huntress has been tough for punters to follow, running in the placings in her five career runs, including going under as a $1.45 favourite last time. But happy to be giving her another chance. She was good late first-up but got too far back on a wet track and couldn’t make up ground. She drops in weight today and jumps from a low barrier. Expect her to settle closer, which should suit. (10) Royal Botanic improved last start to run into the placings at Scone. She can settle positively in the run, which gives her a chance to be in an ideal position for a long way. (7) Miss Supernova wasn’t far behind Our Huntress in their last run and is at peak fitness third-up. She has run into the placings in two runs so far this prep and a win looks close. (6) Merini was solid when making her Australian debut at Wyong. She is fitter now second-up and rising in distance should suit.
Selections:
(8) Our Huntress
(10) Royal Botanic
(7) Miss Supernova
(6) Merini
Suggested Bet: (8) Our Huntress Win
Race 3
It looks a messy race map for a few, but the runner who looks likely to get the run of the race is (6) Samaka, who has speed and looks a likely leader. He could be at peak fitness now third-up into the prep, having run in the placings in both previous runs, and could prove hard to catch. (8) Unleash Harry was solid in his debut performance at Hawkesbury earlier in the year. He has had a freshen-up since and took out a recent trial at Randwick, which suggests he can return here in good order. (5) Royal Air Force resumes. His form was moderate last prep but that was in stronger races, particularly at the end of the prep. He is suited back down in grade and will likely be running on strongly. Many make their debut here today, including (14) Rebel Royal, who showed good talent in recent trials, so can fire first-up, but would have had more confidence if he had drawn a better barrier. He may need luck from out wide early.
Selections:
(6) Samaka
(8) Unleash Harry
(5) Royal Air Force
(14) Rebel Royal
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4
Feel (2) Hovland can produce a peak performance for the prep in this set-up he is faced with today. He is third-up now into the prep, so at a good level of fitness, and remains at the 1600m trip where he has a strong record (4:1-2-1). He has performed well in the wet conditions previously, so conditions should prove no issue. (7) Stellar Rhonda is in super form, having won two of her three runs this prep. One of those came on a heavy rated track, so if the track does remain wet, she can handle it and lines up well in these conditions. (4) Viewpoint went back from a wider barrier last start and never really got going in that race. He sets up to settle closer today from a low barrier and a race with a likely moderate speed should bring him on to find improvement. (8) Hammoon Heroine won at a short price when first-up but couldn’t repeat that when well supported again next time. She is third-up now and gets a good map here to race in a strong position off a likely moderate tempo.
Selections:
(2) Hovland
(7) Stellar Rhonda
(4) Viewpoint
(8) Hammoon Heroine
Suggested Bet: (2) Hovland Win
Race 5
(3) Hello Captain was a good winner when resuming here a fortnight ago. He still raced a little green at stages, so could be capable of improving again now he is fitter, and did tick the heavy track box winning in similar conditions to what we expect today. He will go up in weight, but the extra fitness should help with that. (12) Mrs Maree is in consistent form and is dropping in grade for this today. She looks the value play of the race given her form, but is untested in wet conditions. (13) Jarrito resumes today. She has a good record first-up into a prep and looked good in a recent trial here at Warwick Farm. She can fire fresh but will need to overcome a tricky barrier. (5) Alphard may look to push forward and in a race with a tough race map for others, he could find himself getting the run of the race and suggest if he does that, the drop back in distance should suit.
Selections:
(3) Hello Captain
(12) Mrs Maree
(13) Jarrito
(5) Alphard
Suggested Bet: (3) Hello Captain Win
Race 6
(3) Black Babylon ran well in a similar race to this a fortnight ago when running on for second. Facing a slight rise in distance here today but he is fitter now and proved he can handle a wet track last time, so he gets the right set-up to go one better. (2) Cormac T ran second here at Warwick Farm over the same distance two starts ago. He looks better suited back to this set-up today after a moderate run at Scone last time, and he gets onto a wet track, which could also help him find improvement. (7) Natoya wasn’t far behind Black Babylon at this track last start. She should also be suited rising slightly in distance off a similar set-up, so expect her to again be around the mark. (10) Le Troisir comes across from Victoria for this run. His form has been mixed this prep, but his only career win came on a heavy rated track, so suggest he is looking for wet ground and this track may suit him and help bring on improvement.
Selections:
(3) Black Babylon
(2) Cormac T
(7) Natoya
(10) Le Troisir
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7
(6) Formal was tough when resuming here a fortnight ago but was overrun late in the race. He is set up to find improvement here today, getting in light at the weights after an apprentice claim, and a heavy rated track will play into his hands as he has a strong record in the expected conditions. (10) Aye Aye Captain made a solid return to the races recently after a long spell. She can find improvement now she has had that run and is fitter today, while rising in distance will likely suit her also. (3) Metaphorically resumes from a long spell for this. He has run well first-up previously and while this will be a big effort off that long break, he maps for the run of the race and can potentially lead the field up and be in a prominent position. He may prove hard to catch if he can take control of the race from out in front. (7) Mamushka brings in some strong recent form and may find this the easiest race she has contested for some time. She can run well if she handles the expected wet conditions where she is relatively untested.
Selections:
(6) Formal
(10) Aye Aye Captain
(3) Metaphorically
(7) Mamushka
Suggested Bet: (6) Formal Each-way
