Summary of Best Bets:
Next best: Race 1 No.2 Rebel Tuesday
Best bet: Race 2 No.2 Intellectual
Roughie: Race 9 No.11 Shadowfax
Value bet: Race 10 No.1 Out Of Square
Turf Talk:
- All 10 races are on the Morphettville course proper.
- Clear and warm weather in Adelaide should see the meeting start on a Good 4, with a possible upgrade to Good 3.
- The rail is out +3m from the 1200m to the winning post.
- The course proper generally plays evenly, but in drying conditions it can favour runners settling forward of midfield.
Stats that matter:
- Stuart Gower has trained 15 winners from his last 100 runners with a POT of +54% and saddles two runners today.
- Caitlin Jones continues in career-best form with 15 winners from her last 100 rides at a POT of +30.6%. She is also profitable on this track at +26.1% POT.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
(2) Rebel Tuesday comes into this race with a race experience advantage on rivals having ran into the placings in two good level early 2YO races this season. She has been freshened up with a recent trial and with improvement from her 1st prep she looks the one to beat.
(4) Meadows Flyer wasn’t too far from Rebel Tuesday in her only career run, she maps positively here and could be the improver for that experience.
Of the runners on debut (5) Tommy’s Lass looks the best of those here based off recent trials, The Hayes team have a strong recent record with 2YO runners.
(3) Farnace didn’t get the easiest of runs on debut but could be an improver for that experience, she maps softly again here and can get a better run.
Selections:
(2) Rebel Tuesday
(4) Meadows Flyer
(5) Tommy’s Lass
(3) Farnace
Suggested Bet: Backing (2) Rebel Tuesday
Race 2:
(2) Intellectual resumes today for his 2nd campaign. He looked good winning on debut before running 2nd to Snow Mercy who went on to win a Group 3 in her next start. That looks like a good form reference for this, and Intellectual looks well dialled up resuming having won a recent trial.
(1) Violet Lovebug has been in good form this prep having won 2 of 3 starts, in her last start she did win a similar level race to this. Gets weight off her back thanks to a handy apprentice claim and jumps from barrier 1.
(6) Sassy For Sure won a Maiden last prep and tackled a stronger race before a spell, she has had a break now and two resuming trials have been good so expecting a solid first up run.
(3) Migliorare was an easy winner on debut at Cranbourne and is looking to take a step up in level here today, he showed speed in that debut run and gets a favourable race map for this.
Selections:
(2) Intellectual
(1) Violet Lovebug
(6) Sassy For Sure
(3) Migliorare
Suggested Bet: Backing (2) Intellectual
Race 3:
(7) Rathlin Express is on the quick back up having run a close 2nd in a strong level Maiden last week. He has placed in 3 of his last 4 starts and continues to look close to a breakthrough win and this race sets up well for him if he can hold that recent form.
(4) Summertime Madness ran well last start to finish 2nd after a tough run from a wide position, a rise in distance today will be suitable for him.
(10) Maysoonfly makes her debut here, this race isn’t a super strong Maiden, and she has displayed enough talent at trials to suggest she is capable of winning at this level, jumping from barrier 2 could be an advantage as she should find a favourable position in run.
The race looks likely to have a moderate tempo which could see (6) Gazz find a good position out in front and if given a soft run out in front he could surprise.
Selections:
(7) Rathlin Express
(4) Summertime Madness
(10) Maysoonfly
(6) Gazz
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 4:
It’s hard to look past favourite (5) World’s My Oyster who has won two in a row here in SA and rating highly in both of those runs. She needs to step up again in grade but looks suited up at the 1600m trip.
(8) Wild Winner ran well for 2nd last week and looked better suited at this distance range, she maps softly again and remains light at the weights, she should be running on strongly again.
(3) Willybeafactor has ran 4th in two runs this prep but usually takes a few runs to find his best form and now 3rd up and rising to the 1600m he looks suited in this set up to be an improver.
(2) Surprise Coming did beat some key rivals in this race today last weekend, off the back of that now he needs to rise in weight but can run well again with a soft race map.
Selections:
(5) World’s My Oyster
(8) Wild Winner
(3) Willybeafactor
(2) Surprise Coming
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 5:
Race map looks the key for this race as it appears tricky to line up.
(3) Top Of The Ridge was a close 4th last start in a similar rated race. Rising in trip certainly suits him, but he needs a touch of luck early from the awkward barrier.
(1) Longer Route may get run of the race in a tricky map as he looks likely to push up and find a soft spot on speed from barrier 3, track conditions could set him up nicely.
(8) Kikorangi maps as the likely leader, he generally puts a good tempo into races and was brave last start over the 2000m so dropping back to the 1800m should suit him better.
(2) Mellifluent put in a poor run last start but perhaps didn’t get an ideal run, his form prior was strong and a rise in distance could see him bounce back to better form.
Selections:
(3) Top Of The Ridge
(1) Longer Route
(8) Kikorangi
(2) Mellifluent
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 6:
(13) Chillcuz showed improvement last start to finish a close 2nd, a rise in distance again could suit and she looks likely to get a soft run here from a low barrier, if she can get forwards and control the race from the front, she could prove hard to out tough late.
(11) Dirty Old Town won a good level Maiden last start and steps up in level here. She won softly last time and can go on with it but her run maps awkward from a wide barrier.
(4) Testing One Two was doing his best work late in the run last start at Murray Bridge and should appreciate a rise up to the 1600m.
(2) All Too Mysti won well two starts back but never really got going in her last start at Strathalbyn, she is on a quick turn around and the rise up to the 1600m off that looks as if it should suit, has a wide barrier to deal with though.
Selections:
(13) Chillcuz
(11) Dirty Old Town
(4) Testing One Two
(2) All Too Mysti
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 7:
Today’s feature race on the program is The Premier’s Plate over the 2000m which can be a traditional lead up for runners targeting the upcoming Adelaide Cup.
Race fitness could be key here and liked the way (2) Darknconfidential was hitting the line last week at the 1600m, so quickly up to the 2000m trip that he has won over before should set him up nicely.
(3) Komachi was tough in The Strathalbyn Cup when racing out of his comfort zone up on speed and remaining strong late to hold on for a close 2nd placing. He sticks at the 2000m which suits and can improve here with a better run than what he had to deal with last weekend.
(6) Guru Warrior is a talented runner who resumes having won 4 in a row before a break. This is the toughest race of his career yet and he does have a good record over this distance (3:3-0-0), but giving away fitness may be the risk for him here; expect he runs well but don’t think this is his grand final and he will have improvement to come fitter into the prep.
(8) Isuspectjeu was the fastest finisher of last week’s Strathalbyn Cup but was always going to be against it off a moderate speed. She has a light weight here again and should be doing her best work late in the run over a distance that suits.
Selections:
(2) Darknconfidential
(3) Komachi
(6) Guru Warrior
(8) Isuspectjeu
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 8:
Victorian visitor (6) Salsa Fellow is 3rd up and fit into this prep and should be well suited in what is a slight drop in level on his last start. He likely gets back in the run but has a slick turn of foot late so with a fast tempo up front he could be well set up in this.
(10) Mic Drop has done little wrong so far for her new stable having won both starts here in SA, she should run well again given she is in good form but was tested late last week and this is another step up in level which could prove a tougher challenge.
(5) The Stalker gave nothing else a chance to win last week when leading all the way, he gets a soft race map again here and looks the likely leader, should be well set up back to the 1100m and track conditions may favour him.
(4) Dancing Storm has been solid in recent runs but has faded late, he should be an improver in this with a lighter weight today and dropping back to the 1100m trip where he has a strong record.
Selections:
(6) Salsa Fellow
(10) Mic Drop
(5) The Stalker
(4) Dancing Storm
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 9:
(11) Shadowfax needs to take a step up in level for this race, but he gets a favourable set up which could favour him, he races up on speed so from barrier 3 can find that lead position easily and with weight coming off his back he will be carrying only 51.5kgs and could prove tricky to catch from out in front.
(3) Daisydoo has been consistent in 4 runs this prep finishing in the placings in all 4. She was doing her best work late in the run last week behind Mic Drop so that form could be franked in the previous race and Daisydoo sets up well here down in grade.
(12) Path To Profit is on debut for a new stable here today, she was a good winner two starts back and trialled well recently at Strathalbyn. She may surprise over this shorter distance.
(1) Bristler can mix form but is down in grade which should suit and has the speed to find a forward position, the wide barrier means he has to be quick early or may end up with a tough run.
Selections:
(11) Shadowfax
(3) Daisydoo
(12) Path To Profit
(1) Bristler
Suggested Bet: Backing (11) Shadowfax Each-Way
Race 10:
The talented (1) Out Of Square returns to SA having contested two much stronger races over in Victoria and she rates highly back in grade and back at her home track. Barrier 1 could be her risk if she gets shuffled too far back in the run but for a horse of her talent, we are being offered a decent price to find out and rely on a touch of luck that she gets a clear run in the straight.
(5) Ronny Bee was super for 3rd when making his local debut producing the fastest L600m of the meeting that day at Murray Bridge, the form out of that race reads well now and he is fitter 2nd up today.
(8) Major Rumble was the winner of the race Ronny Bee impressed in at Murray Bridge, he is at peak fitness and has a good turn of foot which he will need as he looks likely to be back in the running from the wide barrier.
(4) Thunder Shoc is in good form including a last start win over this track/distance set up, can run well but gets no favours from a wide barrier and will have to be sharp early to find a good position.
Selections:
(1) Out Of Square
(5) Ronny Bee
(8) Major Rumble
(4) Thunder Shoc
Suggested Bet: Backing (1) Out Of Square
