Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: R5 (2) Over Yonder
Next Best: R2 (9) Winning All Round
Value Bet: R7 (3) Silver Lifestyle
Turf Talk
- Clear and warm conditions are forecast, with the track expected to present as a Good 4 and a potential upgrade possible.
- The rail remains in the true position.
- Similar conditions to the last meeting here, where three winners were leading at the 600m mark, so again expect a slight advantage to on-speed runners.
Stats that matter
- Luke O’Connor’s stable remains in strong recent form, producing 17 winners from his previous 100 runners, returning a POT of +79% for punters and +21.9% here at Strathalbyn alone.
- Tala Hutchinson has been in super form as a 2kg claiming apprentice, riding 21 winners from her previous 100 rides with a POT return of +38.1%. She is booked for five rides at this meeting.
Race by race overview
Race 1
(7) Minimise ran midfield on debut and can be an improver with that experience. She hit the line strongly after a slow early tempo, rises in distance which suits, and maps well from a low barrier. Expecting improvement. (5) Fine Ace contested a stronger maiden at Morphettville last start but got little luck from a wide barrier. She sets up much better from the inside here and can bounce back. (9) Royal Muse hit the line strongly last start and the rise in distance looks suitable now she has the extra fitness second up. (1) Dexter Dream resumes. He has had plenty of runs with little success, but in a race that lacks speed he may push forward and surprise on a track that is expected to suit.
Selections:
(7) Minimise
(5) Fine Ace
(9) Royal Muse
(1) Dexter Dream
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2
(9) Winning All Round was well supported on debut and put in a solid performance to run a close second, only 0.3L from the winner. He rated well there and with any improvement he should prove hard to beat. The wide barrier should be little concern from the favourable 1350m start. (10) Mandarin stuck on well last start and can settle in a positive position again from barrier 3. Dropping back in distance should suit. (7) Sayersitisn’Tso hasn’t shown much in two career starts but has had potential excuses in both runs. He showed improvement at a recent trial and maps well. (1) Eagle Moon can look to lead and that puts him in a strong position early in the race.
Selections:
(9) Winning All Round
(10) Mandarin
(7) Sayersitisn’Tso
(1) Eagle Moon
Suggested Bet: (9) Winning All Round – Win
Race 3
(12) Forever A Diamond ran a close second when resuming and then faded out late after a tough run from a wide barrier. She is going well and this looks an easier level. With a much better map today, she looks the one to beat based on recent form. (14) Minua Murra showed improvement last start when hitting the line well, so looks likely to be suited rising in distance. (10) Bass Coast Flyer got caught wide first up and faded out late. She can bounce back with a better race map and looks a likely improver. (4) Dashing Fountain makes his debut here. If he can overcome the wide barrier, he could figure strongly based on the runs he has produced at recent trials.
Selections:
(12) Forever A Diamond
(14) Minua Murra
(10) Bass Coast Flyer
(4) Dashing Fountain
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4
(8) Harsh showed good improvement last time out when rising in distance and running second. He sets up well in this given there does not appear to be much early speed on paper, which should give him the chance to push forward and get the run of the race in the expected conditions. (1) Sentimental Flame ran midfield at Morphettville last time out after recently contesting the Adelaide Cup. He gets his chance to improve on recent finishing positions dropping sharply in grade from his previous few starts. (4) Peta’s Heart has been running on well and looks suited rising to a staying trip third up, but will need an even track. (5) Retourne put in an average run last start, but his form prior to that was much better, so he can bounce back. He can get a soft run from barrier 1 and be in a strong position in run.
Selections:
(8) Harsh
(1) Sentimental Flame
(4) Peta’s Heart
(5) Retourne
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5
(2) Over Yonder has been competitive in stronger races and looks well suited dropping well down in grade for this. She has a strong record at this distance range and sets up well from barrier 3, so looks tough to beat based on recent form. (5) Like A Drifter was a big winner first up off the back of two winning trials. If he can run up to that level here, he is capable of handling the rise in grade, but the wide barrier makes it tough. (8) Empire Grace has put in the best runs of her career here on her home track, with both of her career wins coming here. This looks like a drop in grade from her recent runs, so she is suited back to this level but is another who needs some luck from a wide barrier. (4) Justacclaim was an easy winner on debut at Murray Bridge and maps to put himself in a good position again and take a step up in level.
Selections:
(2) Over Yonder
(5) Like A Drifter
(8) Empire Grace
(4) Justacclaim
Suggested Bet: (2) Over Yonder – Win
Race 6
(2) Kikkuli was a winner here two starts back before putting in a bad one at Clare. He had excuses that day and is better than that performance. He can bounce back and gets the right race map to suit. (6) Loca Bella may find this a slightly easier race than what she has contested in her other runs this prep. She needs to find improvement but can do so at this distance range. (1) Enciphering is at peak fitness and potentially makes this a truly run race up on speed, which likely suits him best given his recent performances. (5) Belle From Hell was moderate when resuming but was coming off a long spell and contesting a stronger race. Expecting her to be capable of sharp improvement off that long spell.
Selections:
(2) Kikkuli
(6) Loca Bella
(1) Enciphering
(5) Belle From Hell
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7
(3) Silver Lifestyle drops in level and gets back to his home track where he boasts a good record. He jumps from barrier 1 and gets the run of the race if the track is favouring on-speed runners. (2) Tripod Terror ran a close second last start when contesting a stronger race at Morphettville. He had to go back from the wide barrier but was hitting the line strongly. Expecting he can improve rising in distance and settling closer from a better barrier. (5) Ironbar can be an improver rising back up to a distance where he has a good record (4:2-1-0). He sets up well from barrier 3 and gets the right run. (4) Grinzinger Ace is a last-start winner and has a good record at this track, so can go on with it now based on his last start.
Selections:
(3) Silver Lifestyle
(2) Tripod Terror
(5) Ironbar
(4) Grinzinger Ace
Suggested Bet: (3) Silver Lifestyle – Each-way
