Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: R10 (9) Hay Street
Next Best: R2 (7) Moon Sweeper
Best Value: R4 (14) Shangri La Impact
Best Roughie: R5 (4) Island Dream
Track
- Expecting a Heavy-rated track given there is rain forecast prior to Saturday. Conditions should be clear on race day, but expecting wet conditions.
- The rail returns to the True position for the first time since mid-March.
- Expecting a fair track in these conditions, with winners able to come from a variety of positions, but it is also likely runners look to come away from the rails in the straight in the wet conditions.
Stats that matter
- Chris Waller brings another big team to this meeting and has been having strong recent success, producing 17 winners from his last 100 starters and a POT return of +32.5%.
- Alysha Collett has a full book of rides here and has been in strong form, riding 13 winners from her last 100 rides and returning a POT of +24.4%.
Race by race overview
Race 1
(1) Tron Bolt rated highly when winning his last start by a big margin in a similar race at Randwick. If he can run up to that form, he will be hard to beat again and gets in light at the weights with an apprentice claim. (2) Nations League has run into the placings in his last two runs, and both of those races have been strong form references. He jumps from barrier 1, so may get a chance to settle closer in the run. (6) Iommi looks the likely leader of the race, which puts him in a strong position. He ran into the placings on debut on a wet track, so looks likely to handle the conditions. (3) Cormier was impressive when producing a big win on debut at Scone, he is well bred and looks progressive but will need some luck to overcome a wide barrier in the early stages
(1) Tron Bolt
(2) Nations League
(6) Iommi
(3) Cormier
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2
(7) Moon Sweeper ran a close second to Autumn King in their last run, but gets the advantages today that can likely see go one better. He firstly gets a drop in the weight, which may give him an advantage late, especially given he may get a soft run from barrier 2. He has won in wet conditions previously as well, so the track conditions should be little issue. (12) Red Rags To Bulls was hitting the line strongly last start and can figure again in more suitable conditions. She has won two from two over this 1500m distance. (8) Hammoon Sensation can use speed and settle in a forward position from barrier 1. He tired in the run last start, so with a better barrier and a drop in distance he can improve. (15) Brutal Belle brings different form into this race as a last start winner when making it 2 in a row. She should appreciate a wet track and rising in distance
Selections:
(7) Moon Sweeper
(12) Red Rags To Bulls
(8) Hammoon Sensation
(15) Brutal Belle
Suggested Bet: (7) Moon Sweeper – Win
Race 3
Keen on (2) Ice Kool if he runs in this race, but he is dual-nominated for another race on the program. He is kicking off this campaign down in grade and looks ready to fire first-up off the back of two sharp trials. (11) Gorgeous looks the main danger, having run within 2L of the winner in a Listed race last time. She is down in grade, so sets up well, but won’t want to get shuffled back too far in the run. (1) Cold Brew can run a race at a decent price. He resumes today and has performed well first-up previously, has good early speed, can settle forward in the run and has won on a wet track previously. (7) Sir Les comes to town to contest a stronger race having been undefeated in his two runs so far. This is a step up, but he is in flying form.
Selections:
(2) Ice Kool
(11) Gorgeous
(1) Cold Brew
(7) Sir Les
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4
(14) Shangri La Impact is in super form, having won two of her three starts this prep. She boasts a strong record on a Heavy-rated track (3:2-1-0) and has the speed to push forward and settle in a strong position. She can run a race at a decent price in these conditions. (15) Nasebah made an impressive Australian debut when winning by nearly 4L. She rated highly in that race and has the scope to be an improver now she is fitter. She is capable of rising through her grades. (6) Nobler has won two in a row and looks suited rising to the 1800m trip at this point of his prep. He should be hitting the line strongly if he handles the going. (7) Sounds Unusual is third-up and rising in distance, which could see him find his best form. He has run well when at this point of a prep (3:2-1-0), so looks ready to peak.
Selections:
(14) Shangri La Impact
(15) Nasebah
(6) Nobler
(7) Sounds Unusual
Suggested Bet: (14) Shangri La Impact – Each-way
Race 5
(4) Island Dream was disappointing when resuming, but off that performance she potentially had an issue. Happy to forgive her and give her another chance in this set-up. She is fitter now second-up and has won two from two previous second-up runs throughout her career. She has won on a Heavy track before, so conditions shouldn’t be an issue. (15) Ertijaaj was an impressive last-start winner at Caulfield. She travelled sweetly at the top of the straight and won softly. This is harder, but she looks a progressive type and can improve. (12) Bella Corazon looks likely to be back in the run from a wide barrier, but she got back last start and hit the line strongly, so expecting her to be better suited up in distance and fitter now. (7) Covert Thinking resumes. She has had three solid trials leading into this and is undefeated on Heavy tracks, so conditions will suit her, which could prove to be an advantage.
Selections:
(4) Island Dream
(15) Ertijaaj
(12) Bella Corazon
(7) Covert Thinking
Suggested Bet: (4) Island Dream – Each-way
Race 6
(4) Mawjood is on the quick back-up having run into the placings last week in a similar grade. He is at peak fitness and has a consistent record in these conditions. He maps to get every chance again in a similar set-up if he holds his form. (8) I Am Carrot resumed with a nice win and looks every chance to have enough improvement to handle a rise in grade. He is fitter now and looks capable of rising in distance in this set-up. (3) Fiddlers Green has been consistent so far this prep. He gets back to a wet track, which should suit him, and jumping from barrier 4 may put him in a good position. If he can hold his recent form, he sets up for another good run. (2) Man Of Worth kicked off this campaign with a high-rating run and then had the second-up syndrome when racing flat last start. He looks better suited back to the 1500m trip and expecting he will bounce back to stronger form today.
Selections:
(4) Mawjood
(8) I Am Carrot
(3) Fiddlers Green
(2) Man Of Worth
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7
(12) Big Papa is only lightly raced with four career starts so far, but he has won two of those and they were both when he was first-up. He resumes here today having finished midfield in a Group 3-level race, and kicking off back down in benchmark grade will suit. His recent trials have been sharp, so expecting he can fire fresh if he handles the conditions. (13) Agatha won her maiden at a short price two starts ago and then ran well in a Listed-level race, so dropping back to benchmark grade here today will be much easier. The risk is her wider barrier, so she may need luck early to get the right run. (15) Raskol was solid when resuming and running into second. She is fitter here now second-up and will drop sharply down in weight, which should see her be much stronger at the end of the race. (2) Madrina can settle forward, which should suit, and has previously performed well on Heavy ground, so looks ideally set up in this.
Selections:
(12) Big Papa
(13) Agatha
(15) Raskol
(2) Madrina
Suggested Bet: (12) Big Papa – Each-way
Race 8
(2) Crepe Myrtle looks to get a suitable set-up today. She is third-up into the prep and rising to the 1200m. She has won twice when third-up into a prep, so is at peak fitness, and won her only other start over the 1200m. If she handles the wet conditions, she should go close. (9) Sequista should be better suited fitter second-up and dropping in grade back to benchmark level today, while a rise in distance should suit. (5) Miss Kim Kar resumes today. She usually takes a few runs to find her best form in a prep, but could surprise here at a decent price in wet conditions as she should prefer the sting out of the ground. (13) Ernaux has been tough to catch in her career with only the one win, but maps for a soft run from barrier 2, which could land her in a strong position the query for her chances is how she handles the wet track
Selections:
(2) Crepe Myrtle
(9) Sequista
(5) Miss Kim Kar
(13) Ernaux
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 9
(4) Zambardo looks to have found his right race to be able to recapture the strong form we saw him produce last preparation. He looks ready for the 2000m trip now third-up today and is getting onto a wet track. He has only had the one start on a Heavy-rated track, but that was a career-peak performance when he was second behind Via Sistina in The Champions Stakes at Flemington. If he can run up to that today, he should be hard to beat. (20) Thebudgiesmugla waits on a run as the emergency, but if he gains a start, he looks a strong chance based off his performance last week. He rated highly when winning over the 2400m on a wet track and getting back to the 2000m at this level looks a good next step off that run. (1) Tavi Time gets to the 2000m trip for the first time this prep. He has been undefeated in his two other runs at this distance, so looks a chance to reach his peak here today in an appropriate set-up. (13) Nellie Leylax has a strong record on wet tracks and can potentially lead this field, which may suit. He remains down in the weights, so if he goes forward, he could prove tougher to catch.
Selections:
(4) Zambardo
(20) Thebudgiesmugla
(1) Tavi Time
(13) Nellie Leylax
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 10
(9) Hay Street has been in consistent form this prep and looks suited in this set-up. He ran a big race at Scone last time behind a smart winner, and they put a decent gap on third place, so he looks suited remaining at this level and looks ready for a rise to the 1200m trip. Wet conditions should prove no issue. (13) Applaud resumes today. He has won twice when first-up previously and is also undefeated in Heavy conditions. This set-up gives him every chance for a strong first-up performance. (18) Just Response has good speed and can potentially lead the field up and race in a strong position. He faded out in the run last start, so like him coming back to the 1200m trip. (2) Midnight Opal was a winner two starts back, then ran midfield in a stronger race at Randwick. He should find this a drop in grade, which may bring on improvement, and the wet conditions should suit.
Selections:
(9) Hay Street
(13) Applaud
(18) Just Response
(2) Midnight Opal
Suggested Bet: (9) Hay Street – Win
