Turf Talk
- Rail goes back to the true for the first time since March 21, when they were off the fence throughout the meeting.
- Track is going to be genuinely rain affected, expect them to edge off the fence as the meeting goes on.
- A day that we really have to learn from each race because given the challenges they’ve had at Caulfield of late it’s really hard to accurately predict how it is going to play.
- Light winds won’t have a huge impact, but they will make those on speed harder to catch, depending on the track pattern.
Stats that matter
- Clint McDonald is going at 23% from his last 100 runners at a PoT of 13.9%.
- Matthew Dale has a couple of runners coming south as his stable look to find form, with eight winners from their last 100 runners at a PoT of -58.8%.
- Both Greg Eurell and Edward Cummings would like to have their stables going better, with each having just seven winners from their last 100.
Race by race overview
Race 1
A fair few of these look a risk at 1200m.
Backed (7) Star Of Macedon on debut and thought he was excellent. He had only one soft jump-out leading into that so should derive plenty of improvement and he was forced to sit deep with no cover, albeit being wide in the straight was where you wanted to be that day. Other positive is the track was quite wet and he seemed to get through it well. Will be strong at the end of 1200m when a few are wilting.
(3) Carnevale knocked up over 1000m on debut at Flemington and now resumes at 1200m. Granted he’s had three jump-outs to get him fit, but they were all 800m heats and I’m far from convinced the trip is going to suit first up, especially on testing ground. Can win, for sure, but far too short.
Like how (11) Momentum has trialled up for her debut. She won a heat comfortably at Wangaratta before showing a strong turn of foot in a Caulfield Heath trial. Can be a touch slow away, but if she jumps cleanly should get a good run in the race.
(2) Obambulate is no query at 1200m. He will be strong late.
Selections:
(7) Star Of Macedon
(11) Momentum
(2) Obambulate
(3) Carnevale
Suggested bet: Star Of Macedon E/W
Race 2
(3) Swift Force has speed to burn and she should be able to hold the front. She belted her rivals at her Victorian debut here at Caulfield last time out and she gets in with the same weight after the claim for Jabez Johnstone. That said, Craig Newitt had built a good association with this horse and off gate one it could be a little tricky if the inside is off. She’s a promising filly, this, but she’s short enough at $1.60.
(7) Sun Setting was very good behind Swift Force when not having the best of luck last start. That was her first exposure to genuinely wet ground and she seemed to get through it OK.
Thought (2) Emmadella ran OK first up for the Dabernig stable at the ‘Bool. She was 61 weeks between runs having formerly been with John Thompson in Sydney. If we are on a heavy track come Saturday then she will get through the slop no worries.
(9) Sea Poem has trialled up OK.
Selections:
(3) Swift Force
(7) Sun Setting
(2) Emmadella
(9) Sea Poem
Suggested bet: Can’t take $1.65 Swift Force but clearly the horse to beat. Emmadella is worth including in all exotics.
Race 3
A few of these come through a race down the straight at Flemington behind Wise Inlaw. Thought the best of the runs there was (7) Celtics, who got a mile back and was badly held up at a key stage. He hit the line like 1400m would suit and he’s raced that way throughout the campaign. Gate one could be a trick depending on how the track plays, but he should settle leader’s back and is right in the game.
(5) Yes Yoshi is a horse I have a lot of time for but not yet convinced he’s a 1400m horse and genuine wet ground would be a query.
(11) Obvious failed to fire in two recent runs but he has been back to the jump-outs and moved very well. His best is good enough to win a race like this and he goes well with the sting out. Going to get a lovely run from the soft draw.
(12) Kingsbury was impressive winning on debut at Pakenham before coming off the bit very early at Sale last start then hitting the line strongly. Step to 1400m is ideal.
Selections:
(7) Celtics
(11) Obvious
(5) Yes Yoshi
(12) Kingsbury
Suggested bet: Backing Celtics at $9 and Obvious at $41.
Race 4
I’ve got (1) First Chorus marked favourite and think the market has him about right. He’s a gun wet tracker who wasn’t suited by the pattern, and maybe didn’t run the 1800m, at Flemington last start. He can press forward and sit outside the leader and has regular rider Jamie Mott jumping back aboard.
(12) Lady Sadler has had four goes at the mile and is yet to run a drum but her run at Pakenham last start was a lot better than it looked. She has no issue with the sting out.
(3) Madiyya is crying out for the mile now and gets it on Saturday. Untried on wet ground, but nothing suggests she won’t get through it. Will be strong late.
(7) Enna’s Dream is an enigma after showing so much promise early in her career. Best is good enough to win this.
Selections:
(1) First Chorus
(12) Lady Sadler
(3) Madiyya
(7) Enna’s Dream
Suggested bet: Happy to watch.
Race 5
(2) El Rocko will lead (4) Lady Jones. Tempo will be solid for a small field.
(8) See That Storm has to be the starting point in the race. He makes his Australian debut bringing decent UK form and his recent Caulfield trial was excellent. He is a horse that can put himself in the early firing line, so should settle just behind the lead pair. He’s won all three fresh runs and whilst two of them were at 2000m, a fast-run mile here should be right up his alley. The horse that beat him last start went on to win again next time out before running midfield behind Calandagan in the Champion Stakes.
El Rocko is on the seven-day back-up and he will again relish the soft track. He can get a mile on his day and if he can control the tempo they will struggle to run him down.
(3) Oh Too Good and (6) Verdad went to the line close together at Flemington last start. Think it will be the same again on Saturday.
Selections:
(8) See That Storm
(2) El Rocko
(6) Verdad
(3) Oh Too Good
Suggested bet: See That Storm the horse to beat. But wet ground the one query.
Race 6
The only query I have on (11) Simurgh is staying at 2000m after a commanding win this track and trip last start. He was off the bit and chasing a fair way out but responded very well to win. He’s clearly got plenty of talent and more upside than many of his rivals. Maps for a beautiful run in the race, too.
(6) Aberfeldie Boy hit the line strongly first up over 1700m at Warrnambool. Had gone off the boil for Robbie Griffiths but may have found a new lease on life down at the ‘Bool with Tom Dabernig. Ran a narrow third when arguably a good thing beaten in the Easter Cup back in 2024 but hasn’t done a lot since.
(9) Skippers Canyon looks ready for 2000m now and getting onto genuinely rain-affected ground suits.
(7) Sly Boots covered a stack of ground at Sandown last week and stuck on well. Has run OK on a seven-day back-up previously and maps for a much better run.
(5) Makdane won well first up at a mile, albeit that was a slowly run/poor rating race. He loves the sting out and getting to 2000m should only suit him further, with added fitness. Three runs at Caulfield have all been good. Wetter the better for him.
Selections:
(11) Simurgh
(6) Aberfeldie Boy
(9) Skippers Canyon
(5) Makdane
Suggested bet: Simurgh deserves to be a clear fave. Something small E/W Aberfeldie Boy at huge odds.
Race 7
Very good speed.
Like the map for (7) Bred ‘Em All, who can settle in behind the speed and look to pounce late off a hot tempo. Was backed off the map on debut before winning impressively in a race that rated well. Backed that up with another very good win last start. Maps ideally and should be in the finish.
Sting out really suits (5) Cannyworth. He won his maiden impressively in the slop and all runs on rain-affected going have been good. Not sure he was in the best ground here last time out but stuck on well against the older horses. Strong tempo suits and think he’s looking for 1100m now.
The query with (4) Tres Magnifique is twofold: the extra 100m stepping from 1000m to 1100m and a genuinely wet track. She looked all out on the post at the Heath last start, when narrowly holding off Per Sempre. This is a stronger race.
(6) High On The Hill drops in weight after a good win in Adelaide last start. Maps for a nice trail and should be highly competitive.
(3) Rosberg promised the world and has delivered an atlas. He has had the ultimate gear change, having been gelded between runs. He was totally and utterly putrid in Adelaide last start having trialled nicely prior. Maybe the gelding will be the making of him; otherwise it will be the end of him. Best is clearly quite good, but sheesh, he’s hard to trust.
Selections:
(7) Bred ‘Em All
(5) Cannyworth
(4) Tres Magnifique
(6) High On The Hill
Suggested bet: Backing Bred ‘Em All/Cannyworth
Race 8
Not a lot of speed for a Listed 1100m race which should see (14) Bazaball Rewarded control the tempo.
Wouldn’t be totally shocked to see (8) Taunting run a race at big odds. Covered ground/knocked up fresh in Adelaide but will strip fitter. Key with this bloke is wet tracks, he loves them. Equicast comes off after that fresh run and he has ratings in the locker, at least towards the back, that are good enough to win this.
(2) Watchme Win is in the game, bringing strong SA form. He was terrific in the Hawkes Stakes two back before running well enough in the Goodwood last start. Gets back up in weight but he carried 60kg to victory two back and dropping back to 1100m from 1200m suits.
Bazaball Rewarded beat (12) Bustling last start but there’s an 8kg weight swing and fitness in the latter’s favour here. Bustling hadn’t raced for some 86 weeks prior to that first-up third at Caulfield, so his effort had great merit. He can be ridden more positively in a race there doesn’t look huge tempo.
(3) Recommendation will put himself on speed and is always going to be competitive in a race like this. No issue with soft tracks.
Would’ve liked to see (11) Gin A Tonic trial up a touch better but he’s more than capable and should get a good run on speed. Sting out no issue.
Selections:
(2) Watchme Win
(8) Taunting
(12) Bustling
(3) Recommendation
Suggested bet: Backing Watchme Win/Taunting 1×3.
Race 9
Really good speed. Track pattern by this stage crucial.
(7) Elouyou trialled up fairly leading into the campaign before hitting the line strongly first up at 1000m here at Caulfield. Better suited over 1200m on Saturday and does go well second-up. Any further rain won’t worry him. Maps nicely off a hot tempo.
(5) Perspiration started his career with Ciaron Maher and looked a seriously talented 2yo and early season 3yo, including winning a Heritage Stakes at Rosehill on soft ground. He has found his feet in Tasmania and his defeat of Swift Force at Hobart was most impressive, with Swift Force having bolted in at Caulfield last start and going around as favourite in Race 2.
(6) Tristate was home the best last 400m/200m splits of the meeting in the same race as Elouyou. He was off 75 weeks there so should only strip fitter and doubt the wide draw will be anything but a positive.
(3) Stolli Bolli is so consistent. Ran out of room late down the straight at Flemington last start. Gets a lovely run from the soft draw. Wet track no knock.
(14) So You Pence is lightly raced and has upside. Form through last campaign has her right in the game; would’ve liked to see her trial better at Kembla Grange, however.
Race doesn’t end there. This is tough!
Selections:
(7) Elouyou
(5) Perspiration
(6) Tristate
(3) Stolli Bolli
Suggested bet: Something small Elouyou/Perspiration
