Track
- Showery conditions are forecast for race day on an already Soft rated track, working on a Soft 7 but there is the potential the track could get to a heavy depending on the amount of rain that hits race day.
- The rail pushes out and will be +11m the entire
- In wet conditions runners will likely come wide away from the inside lanes in the straight, feel the track should be even but runners who settle forwards of midfield in the run will have an advantage.
Stats that matter
- Alysha Warren is hitting form at an important time of year for an apprentice. She has ridden 14 winners in her last 100 rides and returned a POT of +30.5% making her 3kg claim important
- Jess Tzaferis’ stable has been building into strong form; from her last 100 starters she has produced 13 winners and a POT return of +22.5%
Race 1
(1) Blandford Baron is resuming for his 2nd campaign as a 2YO. He showed good talent with a win last prep and then went to Flemington but failed after he was found to be lame there. He has had 3 trials wins since then and looks in super order for this return; his race experience edge is a key advantage.
(4) Arizona Dreamer ran well on debut at Balaklava, she beat home Lynch who came out Wednesday to win a Maiden by a big margin and franking the form. She is light at the weights and can improve enough to be a winning chance.
(2) Neveu ran 2nd behind a talented runner when making his debut, he has had a freshen up since and resumes here off a winning trial.
(6) Swooshka was green on debut when running midfield at Bendigo, her trial form leading up to that run was much better which suggests she has scope to improve and should be better for having had that debut run.
Selections:
(1) Blandford Baron
(4) Arizona Dreamer
(2) Neveu
(6) Swooshka
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2
(11) Miss Chevalier was well supported on debut and ran a close 2nd behind the talented Bred Em’ All. She now drops back to Maiden grade, and this looks a much easier race, if she runs up to her debut performance she should be hard to beat.
(6) Street Legal resumes for this, he has a race experience advantage on some rivals here so could have found a level of improvement in the paddock. Recent trial form suggests he can return in good order.
(7) Emotive has run 2nd in her last two starts and is knocking on the door for a win, she does meet a tougher field here today but maps as the likely leader of the race and could find herself in a strong position and surprise at odds.
(2) Be Brief makes his debut. He has performed well at trial level, and the stable have a strong record with debutants. He can fire fresh with the right run.
Selections:
(11) Miss Chevalier
(6) Street Legal
(7) Emotive
(2) Be Brief
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3
(5) Biancelli resumes here today and has a consistent record through the early stages of his career. He has been a runner who has performed well when 1st up previously (3:2-1-0) so expect he can kick off in strong fashion. His main query will be how wet the track is as he is untested on a wet surface but if he can get a soft lead he could prove tough to catch despite the conditions.
(1) Sir Now looks the clear main danger, he is a tough veteran who made a solid return recently. He is fitter now 2nd up and despite a big weight again, capable of improving with that extra fitness. A wet track will prove no issue for his chances.
(3) Sixteen Reasons is 3rd up here today, the first two runs of her prep have been in Group 3 races and she drops back to BenchMark grade today. Coming back to a much easier race should see her improve.
(4) Enuff Seduction has hit the line strongly in his last 2 runs and particularly two starts back in a Group 3. He gets in lighter at the weights thanks to a claim and jumps from barrier 1 so potentially can settle closer in the run.
Selections:
(5) Biancelli
(1) Sir Now
(3) Sixteen Reasons
(4) Enuff Seduction
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4
(2) Wine Barron looks to get a chance to win two in a row given the set up he gets here. It is a very similar race as his last win sticking at the 1800m trip where he has previously won 2/2 and he handles a wet track. If he can go forwards again and control the tempo he could prove tough to catch.
(5) Starts Now usually takes a few runs to find his best form and is 4th up into this today where he has won twice previously, looks ready for the 1800m trip and gets every chance to find his best form.
(10) Peta’s Heart is a last start winner at this track/distance set up. She is rising in grade today but she is proven at this set up and looked to appreciate wet conditions last start so the track should prove no issue today.
(11) Our Sassy Lady Has had excuses in her last couple of starts and could get a turn of luck here. She is light in the weights and perhaps gets a positive run from barrier 2 which could have her finding improvement
Selections:
(2) Wine Barron
(5) Starts Now
(10) Peta’s Heart
(11) Our Sassy Lady
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5
(12) Harmonic Dancer is a runner who has shown a lot of promise through the early part of his career but has proven hard to catch with only the one win from six starts and going down as a short priced favourite more than once. He had a long prep last time in work so can certainly be an improver now given he has had the break. He was a winner of a recent trial and looks in good order, if he finds his best form here it looks a suitable race.
(11) Justica’s Bonus is first-up today. He ran well in a recent trial to win and wet track conditions will suit.
(5) Act Natural is consistent having never missed the top 3 in 13 career runs. He took a long time to break his maiden and went straight to the paddock once he did so. Resumes here off a recent trial win and could have a newfound confidence, but the wide barrier makes it tricky.
(9) All Shot rises in level but is in super form having won two in a row now. He needs to handle a step up in level but has a light weight and could be strong late to get every chance to continue on the strong form.
Selections:
(12) Harmonic Dancer
(11) Justica’s Bonus
(5) Act Natural
(9) All Shot
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6
(2) Golden Horizon may be at his peak fitness now 3rd up into this prep. He has chased home the talented Bred Em’ All in both runs this prep and may be suited facing an easier field today. He maps for run of the race out of barrier 3 and can get a soft run to settle on speed so looks advantaged.
(1) Shystar rates highly in this field, she is down in grade from her previous three runs this prep. She tired in the run late last start so coming back to the 1200m trip should suit but she jumps from out wide again.
Wet track conditions should suit (6) Wind Rush here, he contested a Class 2 in his last start and was solid enough but prefer him here back to the 1200m trip and remaining in this suitable grade.
(8) Shocap is another runner who has been in behind the handy Bred Em’ All in her last 2 runs. It looks a strong form line to bring into a race like this and suggest she will appreciate the rise in distance to the 1200m.
Selections:
(2) Golden Horizon
(1) Shystar
(6) Wind Rush
(8) Shocap
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7
(8) Extra Hot was winding up strongly late in her last run when she was coming into the race off the back of a freshen up. She has the benefit of extra fitness here today and if the track is wet it will likely play ideally into her hands as she will prefer a wet track. Expect her to be hitting the line strongly late.
(7) Vanlee made a solid debut for her new stable recently, she is fitter 2nd up now and looks suited rising to the 1100m. Her best form from back in NSW would be hard to hold out in a race of this level and she should have no issues with wet conditions.
(10) Sassy For Sure has been hard for punters to catch as her get back, run on style does leave a lot to luck, but she is consistent and hits the line strongly. Rising to the 1100m trip off her last start performance looks suitable.
(9) Layin’ Up made a solid return to racing when running into the placings at Bordertown. She is fitter 2nd up now and should handle the expected conditions well.
Selections:
(8) Extra Hot
(7) Vanlee
(10) Sassy For Sure
(9) Layin’ Up
Suggested Bet: (8) Extra Hot – Eachway
Race 8
Hard to look past (4) Royal Sway who has been impressive so far into her career which includes a big, last start win when defeating a similar field to who she meets again here today. She beat the field by 3L soft to the line last start and is only up 1.5kgs, expect she wont have a problem in the conditions and is hard to beat again.
Gave (2) Kalmana a strong chance to beat the favourite when they met last start, but he had little luck in the straight and was never in the race. If he can go forwards today and take that luck out of the equation he can improve.
Stablemate (1) Mostly For Show rates highly in this field, he was down in grade last start and had little luck from a wide barrier. He sets up for a better run here today but still has some ground to make up despite that.
(3) Safe Bet was a tough winner last start at Balaklava. He will be fitter for that run now and a rise in distance should suit, can perform well again here.
Selections:
(4) Royal Sway
(2) Kalmana
(1) Mostly For Show
(3) Safe Bet
Suggested Bet: (4) Royal Sway – Win
Race 9
Giving visitor (1) Astunner a strong hope in a race like this at a big price. He has been consistent recently when winning four of his previous six starts and even though some of those were picnic races, they were Cup races so this doesn’t appear a great deal harder. His key advantage could be how wet this track is as I feel if we are on a heavy by the last race of the day that is a big advantage he has.
(10) Grinzinger Halo found himself too far back last start and couldn’t make up enough ground to look a winning chance late in the run. She jumps from barrier 2 today, thinking she can settle closer from there and that should set her up to improve on last start’s finish.
(9) Swycho has run into the placings in her last two starts and can give the field something to chase from out in front as she does look the likely leader.
(5) Falstaffian is another runner who likely looks to lead the field up or settle on speed. He is coming into this up in grade off a maiden win but rated well enough there to suggest he can handle the rise in level.
Selections:
(1) Astunner
(10) Grinzinger Halo
(9) Swycho
(5) Falstaffian
Suggested Bet: (1) Astunner – Each-way
