Betsy’s Set: Caulfield

Race 1

Speed from (3) Ikasara, (6) Gracie’s Rain and (8) Just Like Gaby. Tempo should be reasonable.

$5.50 the field probably underlines the evenness of this contest.

Just Like Gaby went quite hard this track and trip last time out in a race that has produced some solid form moving forward. She can sit just off Ikasara and I suspect will be awfully hard to hold out late.

Big fan of what (12) Hot Statement has done since returning from a long break. He has gone bang-bang at Morphettville, showing a strong turn of foot. Wide draw no issue as he’s going to get back anyway, but expect him to steam at them late.

(7) Interest Point trialled well leading into this campaign and he was very good winning last start at Ballarat. He maps for a soft run and the 100m step up to 1100m is ideal.

(13) Legacy Bay has trialled nicely and can run a race fresh.

Selections:
(8) Just Like Gaby
(12) Hot Statement
(7) Interest Point
(13) Legacy Bay

Suggested bet: Backing Just Like Gaby and Hot Statement.

Race 2

Good speed here.

Think (3) Lodbrok has a chance at 20/1. Strong through the line first up at a mile two back and then back on the inferior ground at Flemington last time out. He’s at his best on firmer ground which he should get here and from gate two he gets a lovely run in the race. Step to 2400m is ideal.

(14) Move On In’s only Australian win came at 2400m and he gets back to that trip for the first time this campaign. He finished alongside Gates (also in here) at Pakenham last time out and was only really getting warm at the end of 2000m. Maps ideally.

(1) Black Run comes off the best last start rating when winning at Randwick. If he repeats that he will take plenty of running down. That said, he was beautifully rated on speed there in a race dominated by the leaders. This is a different scenario with more tempo and getting onto a dry deck. Can win, just think he’s well enough found.

(13) Hot Too Go should get a lovely run and is racing well.

Selections:
(3) Lodbrok
(14) Move On In
(1) Black Run
(13) Hot Too Go

Suggested bet: Small 1×3 Lodbrok.

Race 3

Suspect (1) Nation’s Call comes across and sits outside (7) Nearing Liberty and these two can control the tempo.

If Nation’s Call has pulled up well from a gut buster last Saturday then he’s the horse to beat. He was well backed against stronger company last weekend but nothing went right: he was taken on early, went too hard and was back to the inside on a day you needed to be off fence. His effort to stick on as well as he did was huge. He has performed well off short back ups in the past.

(9) Skippers Canyon is a promising galloper. His Australian debut at Sandown first up last campaign was excellent and then he got too far back in a race dominated on speed at this track and trip. Jump-outs have been solid enough for a stayer, the query is dry ground as his best form to date is with the sting out.

Nearing Liberty is ideally drawn to get a soft run on speed. Five weeks between runs some concern but will be in this a long way.

(6) Cavity Bay is ready now third up.

Selections:
(1) Nation’s Call
(9) Skipper’s Canyon
(7) Nearing Liberty
(6) Cavity Bay

Suggested bet: Nation’s Call 1×3.

Race 4

(6) Beast Mode is airborne since the blinkers have gone on. Those wins have been at 955m and 1000m, the query here is 1100m and I think that’s risk enough to take him on at $3. Pattern will be key, however, if you see a couple of leaders roll in early then his chances obviously increase.

For mine, (4) Hedged is the horse to beat. He’s back 100m in trip, but don’t think that’s an issue. He was very good behind the subsequent McEwen winner Jigsaw first up at Cranbourne and then had little luck behind Caballus down the straight last start.

(8) Grinzinger Prince ran very well in this race last year and his first up win would suggest he’s going even better this time around. He will get back, but the strong tempo should suit, look for him to be closing off hard.

(5) Bases Loaded hasn’t shown his best for a while, but he’s struck a series of wet tracks up in Sydney. He has changed stables from Waterhouse/Bott to the Hayes boys and liked a recent jump out. He can run a better race on firm ground.

Selections:
(4) Hedged
(8) Grinzinger Prince
(6) Beast Mode
(5) Bases Loaded

Suggested bet: Something small Hedged / Grinzinger Prince.

Race 5

A very weak Group 3, this. Seems an afterthought for plenty of these and there’s a distinct lack of talent.

(3) Roll On High certainly has the talent. She gave Joliestar windburn at her third start when winning the Desirable Stakes early doors and at times since has displayed that talent, albeit she’s enigmatic. She did have the pattern in her favour at Flemington last start but she was still good by the same token, and there were a few key gear changes leading into that effort that give hope she can carry on in the same form (tongue tie/crossover nose band both on). She will spot them a start but be strong late.

(10) Miss Playlounge is appallingly in at the weights being a 65 rater, carrying the same 56kg that Molly Bloom does as a 95 rater under the conditions of the race, but at least she brings good recent form to the race. She maps to sit right on speed here from gate three and both runs this time in have been good. 50/1 looks a massive price.

(8) Pondalowie was flying prior to last start where she knocked up badly. Just hope they don’t revert to dropping her out the back as she has the speed to use gate two and settle right behind the leaders. A big hope off her runs two, three and four back.

(9) Blindedbythelight has been plagued by wide barriers her last two. Like the soft gate and assume she will be ridden for speed in a race that lacks early pressure. Not sure 2000 to 1600, but a hope in an open race.

Look, think Roll On High probably deserves to be favourite, but I couldn’t take the $3 on offer, at least until we see horses making ground. Only horse that interests is Miss Playlounge at 50/1.

Selections:
(3) Roll On High
(10) Miss Playlounge
(8) Pondalowie
(9) Blindedbythelight

Suggested bet: Something small Miss Playlounge.

Race 6

Speed looks (13) Proved, (10) Royal Lass, (5) Apache Song and (1) She’s Bulletproof. Even tempo at best.

(8) Vestas is airborne. She has gotten a mile back in both runs this campaign but smashed the line from impossible positions. She was the clear run of the race in each, including behind She’s Bulletproof first up in the Northwood Plume. The knock is she gets back off speed but with even luck in running I think she’s clearly the horse to beat.

Reckon another backmarker in (6) Merrigold is over the odds. She’s well up in class here but she should’ve won first up in the race won by Don’t Hope Do. She’s better suited at 1200m and likes firmer going, which she should get on Saturday.

This looks a target race for (3) Pop Award who has been freshened up and trialled nicely going in. Can win.

(2) Aviatress trialled nicely at Balaklava ahead of this return to the track. She gets back in her races but she has a powerful finish. Goes well fresh and gets Willo on board, who has won on her before.

She’s Bulletproof got it all her own way winning two back and then played up in the barriers and suffered a few nicks in the Begonia Belle last start. The stable also reported she may have been in season there, which could help explain her poor performance. Despite winning two back, not convinced she’s at her best this campaign.

Selections:
(8) Vestas
(6) Merrigold
(3) Pop Award
(2) Aviatress

Suggested bet: Backing Vestas and Merrigold (provided horses can make ground, and we will know by now). Like the race.

Race 7

(12) Sheza Alibi has to be the starting point. The blinkers went on last start and she went like a rocket at Flemington. She was held up at a key stage there and arguably could’ve won by further. The mile won’t pull her up and going back through her winter form she ran second to Autumn Boy in the Tatts Stakes, which only looks better now. Maps ideally from gate one. The only problem, she’s $1.70.

If (9) Centu Cavaddi was coming into this off his Sandown run two back he’d be single figures. Stable thought he may have choked down when well beaten behind Regal Award last start. He’s the horse I could have something small each way on.

(2) Burma Star, (4) Kaleo, (5) Tagline, (7) Pictor and (8) Sulek all come through the Springtime Stakes, where there was very little between them. Thought Kaleo was as good a run as anything in that and he’s $18 here. Appeals out to the mile.

(11) Top Reward can lead and give a sight at odds. Big ask for him to win this at start number two, but his debut win at Mornington was solid and there has been good form out of that race. There’s a distinct lack of tempo, which can play into his hands.

Selections:
(12) Sheza Alibi
(9) Centu Cavaddi
(11) Top Reward
(4) Kaleo

Suggested bet: Not much interest.

Race 8

Where the hell does the speed come from?

Maybe (7) Vinrock leads with the shades on the first time but he was only fair to begin in them in a recent jump out on the Caulfield Heath track. (3) Busustow can be thereabouts.

(1) Jimmysstar is no issue at 1400m. Much of his career he’s looked more like a middle distance horse, but such is his talent he’s been able to sprint at the top level. This has a similar feel as to the All Aged Stakes at the end of last campaign where he was able to hold off a fast finishing Joliestar, albeit that was his fourth run of the preparation. Despite the small field, drawing inside Angel Capital is an advantage as he will almost certainly be a pair closer in the run.

This looks a real target race for (5) Angel Capital after he was robbed of a Group 1 in the Rupert Clarke. Being an entire, getting that G1 will be hugely valuable on the CV. He was awesome without luck in the Everest and has had a nice tick over trial since. Think he can sprint past Jimmy and I think they should be closer in the market.

(2) Evaporate is probably better at a mile but he’s racing well.

Selections:
(5) Angel Capital
(1) Jimmysstar
(2) Evaporate
(4) Pinstriped

Suggested bet: Think Angel Capital is the bet. He looks a big price.

Race 9

Not much speed despite the big field. (7) Tomato Toastie probably tries to lead from the deep. (6) Rohesia can be more forward with the blinkers going on, maybe (17) Jessica Rabbit (if gets a start) and (10 Thanks Gorgeous other speed influences.

Sheesh, not sure they would’ve wanted gate one for (1) My Gladiola given a choice. She has been ridden conservatively early in her races this campaign and it has delivered outstanding results. However, given the same tactics, they risk being buried on the fence from the inside alley, so will be interesting to see what Mott does early. She brings clearly the strongest form having run very well in the Coolmore and is thrown in at the weights under the SWP conditions of the race. Provided this isn’t going to the well one too many times for the campaign (four races and five jump outs) then she is going to prove awfully hard to beat.

That said, I’m going value hunting. (9) Teine Aulelei is back 200m in trip but not too worried about that, not convinced she’s a 1400m horse despite her racing style. The knock is she’s going to spot them a start but she has the turn of foot to get her out of trouble. She’s still on the up this campaign.

Rohesia is going to have a tactical advantage on many of her key rivals and the blinkers going on is a plus. She’s no superstar, but Ethan Brown is riding in terrific fashion and he will ensure she gets every chance.

(2) Inkaruna has been running well down the straight at Flemington. If she can translate that form getting back around a bend she will be competitive.

Selections:
(9) Teine Aulelei
(1) My Gladiola
(6) Rohesia
(7) Tomato Toastie

Suggested bet: Not much interest. Something small 1×3 Teine Aulelei.

Race 10

Looks reasonable speed here.

Again looking for value.

(2) Modown has had three trials leading into this and has gone well at his last two. He is a horse who has always resumed or debuted at 1200m, this is the first time he kicks off a campaign at 1400m and I expect the extra trial suggests this was a target race fresh. He’s going to get a lovely, soft run in the race and figure in the finish at $15.

(4) Pascero is a massive price at $51. His career peak rating comes at the Caulfield 1400m course and if he got anywhere near that then his rivals would have to improve to beat him. His best may be behind him and he’s changed stables since last at the sports, but loved the way he trialled (noted, he always trials well) at Pakenham leading into this. He maps to sit handy to the speed and should get his preferred firm going.

(15) Dark Simba has trialled well and can be most competitive first up with the right run.

Thought (13) Spione had his chance at Geelong last time out but is probably better suited to 1400m and maps nicely.

(7) Taken has a chance first up, albeit he’s only had the one soft jump out while (14) Somewhere has ability.

Race doesn’t end there.

Selections:
(2) Modown
(4) Pascero
(15) Dark Simba
(14) Somewhere

Suggested bets: Again specking roughies: Modown and Pascero.