Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: Race 7 No.12 Knobelas
Next Best: Race 6 No.1 Gallant Son
Value Bet: Race 9 No.3 Mytemptation
Bet recommendation: Race 2 No.8 Trapalanda
Turf talk:
- Expecting clear conditions race day despite the forecast of a small chance of a shower at some stage and with the warm weather through the week the expectation is that the track will be rated a Good 4.
- The rail pushes out slightly from the previous meeting here on New Years Eve and will be +6m today.
- Monitoring the wind levels as a western or south western wind is forecast. If strong enough these winds may give advantage to runners with cover off the rails around the bend depending on the strength on the day.
Stats that matter
- South Australian trainer Chris Bieg is in good form and travels two runners across the border for this meeting today. He has won 17 of his last 100 starts at a POT of +54.1% and he has trained three winners here at Flemington previously returning a POT of +45.9%.
- Harry Coffey has been in hot form through this summer period and profitable to follow for punters with 18 wins in his last 100 rides at a POT of +34.4%.
Race 1
(1) Jenni Gone Bonkers looks the one to beat in this race at short odds given her consistent form so far this prep including a strong win last start when up in grade. Her only failure this prep came second up at Caulfield when she finished second as a short price favourite at Listed level. This race appears to have plenty of speed in it which should give her an ideal run and senior Mark Zahra taking the ride today is a bonus.
(2) Flying Done has won two in a row and is after his third in a row here today. He won easily last start and maps well again today. If he can repeat that big last start rating he should go close again in a similar grade.
(6) Our Chief was strong through the line in a fast run race when he resumed recently at Caulfield. Expecting he could find a level of improvement here today fitter second up and rising in distance.
Can’t mention the last start run of Our Chief without mentioning (5) Falset Star who comes out of the same last start race and produced the fastest L600m, L400m and L200m of that race. He should also appreciate the rise in distance but giving a small negative to his race map from the inside barrier as there is a risk he gets shuffled back on the rail. With clear running late he can threaten.
Selections:
(1) Jenni Gone Bonkers
(2) Flying Done
(6) Our Chief
(5) Falset Star
Suggested bet: No bet
Race 2
(8) Trapalanda was the best of the chasing pack behind Touchdown last start when finishing 2nd behind him in their previous start and gets a different set up here today which could bring improvement. He drops weight in weight today and is at peak fitness third-up. He has won two from two third-up previously, with Touchdown out of the race now today he looks well placed.
(9) Sun Gift is proven at these staying trips and has a strong record at 2000m so expect she will be strong through the line down light at the weights.
(1) Prince Eric was a winner two starts ago in a fast run race before not getting an ideal set up last time. If they run this along quickly he can get his chance to swoop late.
(11) Wolfess has been consistent having run 2nd in her previous 2 starts and was a winner previous to that, she is drawn inside and can push forwards and race in a good position.
Selections:
(8) Trapalanda
(9) Sun Gift
(1) Prince Eric
(10) Wolfess
Suggested bet: (8) Trapalanda (Win)
Race 3
Some high class runners resume here today down in grade from where they finished last prep.
(2) Military Tycoon is one of those resuming runners who looks in good order having won a trial at Murtoa recently. She showed her class winning at Group 3 level first-up last prep and importantly she won that race down the Flemington straight which could prove an advantage today.
(1) Esha has won twice previously first up and looked good winning a recent trial. She can push forward at a high cruising speed and may be advantaged out wide in the straight but this is her first look at Flemington.
(6) Conscience was a winner on debut before a spell and then well supported when resuming and did not get the ideal run. She is first-up again and with a light weight should be hitting the line strongly.
(8) Jenni The Ninja has had a freshen since winning her debut at Pakenham and her recent jump-out suggests she can resume in good order and may have enough upside to challenge.
Selections:
(2) Military Tycoon
(1) Esha
(6) Conscience
(8) Jenni The Ninja
Suggested bet: No bet
Race 4
Expecting improvement from (7) I Only Wish who had excuses last start at Cranbourne when never getting clear running. Back to a bigger track should suit.
(4) Miss Playlounge is in good form winning three of her last five and was strong through the line last start. Rising in distance looks suitable.
(2) Suntora won two in a row before running a close second last start when only caught late. Dropping back to 1800m could suit.
(9) Bon Fete steps up in grade but gets in light and should be finishing strongly late.
Selections:
(7) I Only Wish
(4) Miss Playlounge
(2) Suntora
(9) Bon Fete
Suggested bet: No bet
Race 5
(12) Watersports finally broke through last start after three placings in a row. Rising slightly in distance should suit and she again gets in well at the weights.
(5) Extreme Virtue looks advantaged with a three kilogram claim and maps as the likely leader. If she controls the tempo she will be hard to run down.
(4) Otago rates well on earlier career form and drops in grade but may need luck early from the draw.
(11) His Finest Hour ran well over this track and distance last start and could get a soft run from barrier three.
Selections:
(12) Watersports
(5) Extreme Virtue
(4) Otago
(11) His Finest Hour
Suggested bet: No bet
Race 6
Keen to side with the resuming (1) Gallant Son who returns well down in grade from races he contested last prep including a Listed second and a Group 2 fourth. He will carry weight but rates clearly back to this level.
(13) Cavalry Girl has race fitness and comes off a last start win over this track and distance. The wide draw could be advantageous.
(7) Runlikenencrytion is third-up off a Sandown win and has a good record at 1000m.
(14) Chergui ran second in a stronger race last start and drops in grade. The wide barrier should not be an issue down the straight.
Selections:
(1) Gallant Son
(13) Cavalry Girl
(7) Runlikenencrytion
(14) Chergui
Suggested bet: (1) Gallant Son (Win)
Race 7
(12) Knobelas likely left herself too much to do last start. She rises to 1600m where she has an excellent record and is at peak fitness third-up. Her career peak came at this stage last prep and she can reproduce it here.
(3) Roadcone controlled the tempo last start and proved hard to catch. She may need luck early from the draw.
(7) Sneaky Sunrise was well supported last start and gets back to a track and trip that suit.
(11) Teardrop Rotation brings winning SA form and has been hitting the line strongly. The mile should suit.
Selections:
(12) Knobelas
(3) Roadcone
(7) Sneaky Sunrise
(11) Teardrop Rotation
Suggested bet: (12) Knobelas (Win)
Race 8
This is a competitive edition of the Group 3 Standish Handicap.
(5) Hedged and (3) Aviatress come through the Christmas Handicap with Hedged winning comfortably. Hedged has proven straight form which gives him the edge.
(1) Maharba is the class runner but gives away race fitness.
(9) Major Share handles the straight and gets in well at the weights.
Selections:
(5) Hedged
(3) Aviatress
(1) Maharba
(9) Major Share
Suggested bet: No bet
Race 9
This is a very open race and the value with (3) Mytemptation looks appealing. He maps to get cover off a fast tempo and may be better suited down the straight.
(1) Rue De Royale won over this track and distance last start and can build again.
(10) Behaviour looks better suited up to 1200m and could finish late.
(12) Mercurial Lady returned to winning form last start at her preferred trip and may control the speed.
Selections:
(3) Mytemptation
(1) Rue De Royale
(10) Behaviour
(12) Mercurial Lady
Suggested bet: (3) Mytemptation (Each way)
Race 10
(14) Legacy Bay has been consistent and the last start form reads well.
(13) Hot Digity Boom should improve with fitness and extra distance.
(4) Porter likes to roll along and dropping back to 1400m suits.
(3) Fear No Evil is another runner who can benefit with a positive race map, he may be better suited dropping back to the 1400m trip having won his only other start at this distance
Selections:
(14) Legacy Bay
(13) Hot Digity Boom
(4) Porter
(3) Fear No Evil
Suggested bet: No bet
