Summary of Best Bets:
Best bet: Race 4 No.8 Metallic Ruler
Next best: Race 5 No.1 Expeetee
Turf Talk:
- First meeting on Sandown Lakeside since August 20
- The Lakeside course is the inner track at Sandown. It is tighter, and as a rule favours horses closer to the speed.
- Light southerly winds will only aid the field down the long back straight.
- Expect those on speed to be hard to run down.
Key stats:
- Luke Currie is striking at 23% from his last 100 rides at a PoT of 33%.
- Trainer John McArdle is going at 20% from the last 100 horses he’s saddled up at a handy PoT of 30.6%.
- Tony and Calvin McEvoy have another in form stable, with a strike rate of 23% from their last 100 runners.
Race 1
(7) Lady Verity justified an odds-on quote at Geelong, shedding her maiden by leading at a sedate pace and quickening away from her opposition well. She attempts six furlongs for the first time, but gives every indication that that won’t be what brings her undone. She’s been aptly supported early, now inside my rated price of $2.40.
(5) Tan Tat Delight set the clock alight on debut over the concluding 400 metres, and reinforced the strength of her debut effort to break her maiden at second asking. She ran a strong overall time at Kyneton, clearly faster than the BM66 in the race following. Her position in the market should be flipped with Cavern.
(3) Cavern was restrained to last from a wide barrier, but failed to finish the race quicker than standard time. I don’t believe 1200 metres will be to his detriment, but quickly raising from five furlongs to six can trouble some horses.
(4) Off Their Perch closed fiercely at Echuca on debut prior to a spell and has trialled as if she’s improved leading into this preparation. Her chances are slightly undersold by the market at this stage.
Selections:
(7) Lady Verity
(5) Tan Tat Delight
(3) Cavern
(4) Off Their Perch
Suggested Bet – Backing Lady Verity at $2.60+
Race 2
(13) Yellowjacket made a sensational debut at Pakenham, closing five lengths faster than standard over the last two furlongs, all while racing as if uncomfortable over 1000 metres. She’ll improve for an extra furlong and has the favourite in her sights if she can make improvement on her debut.
(11) Thanks Gorgeous‘ chances are obvious; she’s been placed behind My Gladiola, Ole Dancer and, most recently, she ran fourth to Inkaruna in the Thoroughbred Club Stakes. She races on pace and, if she holds her form, is certainly the most likely winner of this race.
(6) Layla has trialled as if she is talented and must be in calculations.
(1) Celestra was supported as if she were talented on debut, but failed to fire. She can improve based on two impressive jump-outs.
Selections:
(13) Yellowjacket
(11) Thanks Gorgeous
(6) Layla
(1) Celestra
Suggested Bet – No bet
Race 3
(1) Aliano was well respected by the market on debut, racing three wide without cover, eventually tiring into fourth. He resumed over 1000 metres this campaign, and that wasn’t to suit, seemingly chasing the entire race. Quickly rising to six furlongs will be to his liking.
(5) Algorithmic was thrown into the deep end in his first campaign and raced respectably, albeit well handled. He improved in one run last preparation, and can take further improvement this time. He is deserving of favouritism, but not quite so short.
(3) Louis Barthas was held up for a run last start and can quickly improve with the winkers being applied.
Selections:
(1) Aliano
(5) Algorithmic
(3) Louis Barthas
Suggested Bet – No bet
Race 4
(8) Metallic Ruler makes his debut for Gavin Bedggood, has trialled well and is one of the few pure six-furlong horses amongst this field. I think he should be the favourite.
(5) Winsome Star made a plain Victorian debut, seemingly outpaced around the tight turning Heath track over six furlongs. Again, he’ll need things to go his way, and is an opposable favourite at the meeting, albeit at 4/1.
(6) Attain, much like Metallic Ruler, has made his way into the Gavin Bedggood stable and makes his debut for him here. He profiles well, but is likely to be restrained from the wide draw, and I’m looking for an on-pacer in this race.
(3) Primal Spirit races on pace and can quickly improve. His career peak performance rating came over this track and distance, leading throughout. He must have a chance of capitalising here.
Selections:
(8) Metallic Ruler
(3) Primal Spirit
(5) Winsome Star
(6) Attain
Suggested Bet – Backing Metallic Ruler (Best Bet)
Race 5
(1) Expeetee led at a sedate pace to win at Wodonga just shy of a fortnight ago. Sixth up into this campaign, out to his preferred distance, I’m happy to gamble that he can lead and stave off the challenge of this field.
(8) Wolfess was excellent winning in town last start, getting the better of (3) Winston in a slower than standard race to the 800 metres. She’s 28 days between runs, which is a negative, but has a likable profile nonetheless.
(9) Oceans Above was well supported to start inside 3/1 at the Heath, eventually comfortably handled by Suntora, but the SP holds true. There’s evidence to suggest that he mightn’t have been prepared for such a fiercely run race, and can make a drastic improvement. Big odds.
(3) Winston rolls forward and is fourth-up now.
Selections:
(1) Expeetee
(8) Wolfess
(9) Oceans Above
(3) Winston
Suggested Bet – Backing Expeetee (Next Best Bet)
Race 6
(8) Darkbonee is a talented horse, one I’m convinced will end up as a Saturday grade contender. Although he was comfortably beaten by Ten Commandments over seven furlongs first up, and would need to show improvement to win here. He’s met with a difficult barrier draw to overcome, and is slightly too short at the current $2.40.
Selections:
(8) Darkbonee
(9) Katsumi Orochi
(1) Fiasco Tess
(4) Legend Beast
Suggested Bet – No bet
Race 7
(3) Betwitchery can run to the level of form needed to win a race of this quality. She has trialled as if she has returned well and has claims of being significantly shorter than what the market is giving her credit for.
(7) Escarpa continuously runs well, but needs a certain scenario to take place to win. She doesn’t possess enough pace to put herself amongst the early speed, but hasn’t shown the capacity to stretch out over further. An opposable favourite, but a chance nonetheless.
(10) Exuberance raced wide without cover last start and can be forgiven. Blinkers are applied, and she’s been met with strong early support.
(11) Chewing Gum can settle further forward from barrier 1.
Selections:
(3) Betwitchery
(7) Escarpa
(10) Exuberance
(11) Chewing Gum
Suggested Bet – Backing Betwitchery
Race 8
(16) Stealth Of Night set a strong early pace at Cranbourne and was only narrowly beaten first up. Williams can use her early pace to hold a prominent position, and provided she runs to expectation, she has the capabilities of comfortably handling this field.
(1) Porter races on the pace and can give a sight.
(19) Watersports was held up for a run first-up and can settle further forward in this.
Selections:
(16) Stealth Of Night
(1) Porter
(19) Watersports
Suggested Bet – Backing Stealth Of Night at $2.40 or better
