Best bets summary:
Best bet: Race 3 No.4 Like A Drifter
Value bet: Race 5 No.3 Yes I Believe
Next Best Bet: Race 7 No.4 Empire Grace
Turf Talk:
- Rail position is set to be +3m W/Post-400m and True the remainder for this meeting as it has been in the two previous meetings
- Clear weather is forecast for race day and the lead up, so the track is expected to present as a Good 4
- In previous meetings with a similar condition set up, the track has played fairly. Majority of runners have won with cover and likely come away from the rails in the straight.
Stats:
- Apprentice jockey Sophie Potter has been making good use of her weight claim producing 20 winners in her last 100 rides at a POT of +33.3% and she will have 4 rides here today
- Stephen Theodore brings 3 runners to this meeting and he has previously had a good record at this track producing a winning strike rate of +19.1% at a POT of +47.6%
Race 1
Preferring to side with race fitness for this race and (2) Pulambi looks likely to get every chance to improve from what appears an ideal set up, he was well supported last start but perhaps not suited on that track, gets back to his home track today and drawn to be prominent again.
(6) Lunarshot hit the line strongly in a much stronger race at Morphettville last time out, should be suited rising to the 1200m if she can hold the form she produced last start.
(3) Shalhavmusik maps to be positive in the run from a low barrier so should be in a strong position in run.
(1) Urbanise was competitive in stronger races last prep after she won her maiden race, but she is fresh here today and may be better suited over more ground going forwards into the prep.
Selections:
(2) Pulambi
(6) Lunarshot
(3) Shalhavmusik
(1) Urbanise
Suggested bet: No bet, not quite fully trusting most of these off their recent form.
Race 2
(9) Goodlookin’ Guru & (6) Ze Ze Zap are both runners on debut and come from handy stables. Both have trialled well in the lead up to this run and are capable of winning in this grade at some stage, giving a leaning to Goodlookin’ Guru for this with the light weight and better barrier.
(4) Stranded next who looks likely to have improvement to come after his first-up run and this looks easier.
(3) Sir Monica managed to improve into the placings last start, if he can be positive from the good barrier, he should land in a good position in a moderately run race.
Selections:
(9) Goodlookin’ Guru
(6) Ze Ze Zap
(4) Stranded
(3) Sir Monica
Suggested bet: No bet
Race 3
(4) Like A Drifter was strong through the line when resuming over the 900m trip at Murray Bridge recently. Rising in trip here today looks ideal off the back off that run after he also made his debut in a stronger race in September. This looks a ideal level for his debut win.
(8) Splash Of White has looked close to a win with 2 placings in his previous 3 starts, he was only caught late here last start so expect another forward showing in similar company.
(10) Vaniteux was well supported fresh in a similar grade before contesting a stronger race at Morphettville. Back down in grade and a return to his home track could see him improve.
(3) Impending Fury may be an improver in this race, rising up in trip from a low barrier to get a soft run.
Selections:
(4) Like A Drifter
(8) Splash Of White
(10) Vaniteux
(3) Impending Fury
Suggested bet: Like A Drifter (Win)
Race 4
This looks a super competitive race considering the level most of these have gotten to in their career is very similar.
(7) Bolted In has been average in his last 3 starts, but the key to his improvement here could be dropping well back in grade from last start, if the track is fair he gets a good chance here.
(3) Je City resumes today, he was competitive in a stronger grade last prep but over longer trips, he may have improvement to come over more ground this prep but can fire fresh in this grade.
(6) Mapleway has been well in the market in his last 3 starts but disappointed last start with an average run, he potentially had some excuses from that run so has had a freshen up now, can bounce back.
(4) Lastar drops in grade and has won at this track previously, but will need to overcome a wide barrier to find his best form here today.
Selections:
(7) Bolted In
(3) Je City
(6) Mapleway
(4) Lastar
Suggested bet: No bet, tough race to split the first few in the market.
Race 5
(3) Yes I Believe has been back in the field in both of his runs so far this prep, but gets a more suitable set up here with a low barrier likely to give him a softer run and he does drop in grade from last start. He gets into easier race with a suitable set up so can improve sharply.
(5) Didwewin comes into this race off the back of a last start win at Port Lincoln. He gets an ideal race map and can be forward in the run which may help him improve to be competitive again here.
(10) The Ice Cutter hit the line strongly last start over this same track/distance set up, if he can get an economical run from the wide barrier he should figure in the finish again.
(13) Gogolf Guru has run 3rd in her last 3 starts and has performed well at this track in the past.
Selections:
(3) Yes I Believe
(5) Didwewin
(10) The Ice Cutter
(13) Gogolf Guru
Suggested bet: Yes I Believe (Each way)
Race 6
(4) Think Tank has finished 2nd in his last two starts. A rise back up in distance here today looks as if it will suit based on how he has been hitting the line and he has won at this trip previously.
(2) Alchian wasn’t far behind Think Tank when they met last start and he can turn the tables here today give he gets a much softer race map and will be suited at this distance given he hasn’t missed the top 2 in 3 previous starts.
(6) Sandpiper was a winner two starts ago before tackling a much stronger race last start. He will be suited here today dropping back in grade.
(8) Annanda was a winner at this track/distance set up earlier in his prep. He appears better suited over this distance range after his last start performance so suggest he can improve.
Selections:
(4) Think Tank
(2) Alchian
(6) Sandpiper
(8) Annanda
Suggested bet: No bet, low confidence staying race to bet into
Race 7
(4) Empire Grace was impressive winning by a solid margin last start over this same track/distance set up beating a field that contained Grinzinger Ace who she meets again here today. Empire Grace again looks well placed in a similar set up and rivals need to find 2L to get past her from last start so it is hard to take her on from that.
(5) Grinzinger Ace has been consistent this prep and races well at this track so he should be around the mark again.
(2) Explicable has run into the placings in his two starts so far this prep. He was strong through the line last start at this same track/distance set up so should likely be around the mark again in a similar race.
(1) Head Of The Herd needs to overcome a wide barrier early, but will be suited back down in grade and likely fitter 2nd up today.
Selections:
(4) Empire Grace
(5) Grinzinger Ace
(2) Explicable
(1) Head Of The Herd
Suggested bet: (4) Empire Grace (Win)
