Summary of Best Bets:
Race 6 Quinella – 1,3,7
Race 7 #10 Laridae – Like the form from last race and well suited here.
Turf Talk:
- Rail 6.5m
- Rail out this far may favour the leaders but I wouldn’t jump at shadows early. Watch the first couple closely.
- Weather looks good so we should be on a good surface.
Key Stats/:
- We told people last week Ben Thompson is at the start of a great run and he hasn’t let us down. Striking at 30% from his last 50 and ROI +119%
- Mark Currie has an ROI +38% from his last 50 runners and has them going well.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Loved the trial of (2) Hard To Exceed at the coast. On speed and showed a turn of foot to win easily. Draws the inside gate with a claim for good apprentice.
(4) Naughty Neil was a similar trial at Deagon. Led easily, kicked and strong through the line. Maloney taking a ride for Munce is interesting.
Also loved what (11) Subsiding did at the trials. Well bred, good stable and gets Thompson on top.
Nothing wrong with the trial of (6) Yotei as well, strong late and will win races.
Selections:
(11) Subsiding
(2) Hard To Exceed
(6) Yotei
(4) Naughty Neil
Suggested Bet: Small win bet (11) Subsiding
Race 2:
I don’t love rail out for (5) Inside Passage as it is a get-back horse and may be hard to make ground. Usually strong late though and does look one that should be winning a Maiden soon.
(6) Rusty Tycoon doesn’t draw well but does have some tactical speed. Has been a pass mark this prep and ready to show best 4th run into the prep.
You watch (4) Tulong and feel it has to win a race but I have just about given up now. Thought it was well placed and had every chance last start. Now just an exotics horse.
(9) Peak Miss has placed in five races but still a maiden from 12 runs.
Selections:
(5) Inside Passage
(6) Rusty Tycoon
(9) Peak Miss
(4) Tulong
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3:
Competitive race this one. The toppy (1) Abraham has been terrific his whole career and was a well deserved winner last time out. That was 1200m to 1650m and you’d have to say will only be better for the run at the trip. Has upside to come.
(6) Canara is Waller and is much better placed up here than down south. Solid behind a good one last start but 1 win from 25 doesn’t give you much confidence on a win bet.
(7) Kirkall is no star but a bit to like. Moor/Lees combo and can map well from the inside draw. Lightly raced and can keep improving through the preparation.
(8) Kurithea was a winner over this track/trip two ago and then went to an 1800m Saturday grade race and was outclassed. Rock hard fit and back to this grade will help.
Selections:
(1) Abraham
(7) Kirkall
(6) Canara
(8) Kurithea
Suggested Bet: Small win bet (1) Abraham
Race 4:
I find a lot of these hard to catch.
No doubt (3) Cindersea will be hard in the market again. She does have ability but feel she is always under the odds lately. Wide gate not ideal.
(7) Trounce is with Lees and has won or placed in 5 of 7. Decent win last start off a freshen and looks well placed again here. Just needs some luck or a good ride early from the gate.
Not sure what to make of (8) Cordina to be honest. Has some ability but can mix it up. If money comes, I would respect it.
(9) Divine Source has the wide gate but has speed and likely to push forward and take bad luck out of the equation. If it is playing to the front, could be hard to run down here.
Can make a case for 1,4 6 also and not much would surprise here.
Selections:
(9) Divine Source
(7) Trounce
(3) Cindersea
(1) Just Precious
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5:
Well (1) True Amor is the obvious. Form all prep has been good and nearly won the CL Magic Millions race two back. Beaten at a short quote last start but this is suitable. Loses senior for apprentice but the good gate helps her out.
After (9) Meldubious won fresh I thought it would simply keep winning its way through the grades. Gee, the last couple have been disappointing and hard to have off them.
(5) Grammar Lad has ability and lightly raced. Trials have been pass marks but just looks one that could be a big improver with the break under its belt. Rodd rides and can make use of a good gate.
(6) Irama put a poor one in to finish the prep last time out but had been impressive before that. That form has held up well and can run a race fresh here.
(4) Runwiththetide ran last fresh. If we get a dry track, he could be the sharp improver and will be up on speed.
Selections:
(1) True Amor
(5) Grammar Lad
(6) Irama
(4) Runwiththetide
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6:
(3) Cho Oyu is an honest type with a good overall record (9:4:1:1). Winner first-up then given 60 days between runs is a little query. Is talented and I feel is best horse in the race. If he’s fit enough, he’s good enough.
(1) Hell To Pay has improved at each run for Gollan and got the cash last time out. Takes a claim again and as usual Gollan has placed him well. I think he’s handy without being great.
(7) Acappella Sun was a surprise leader two back and won at decent odds. With the feather weight I would say that’s only way to try and ride her again.
(6) Streak Of Winning might be the next best.
Selections:
(3) Cho Oyu
(1) Hell To Pay
(7) Acappella Sun
(6) Streak Of Winning
Suggested Bet: Quinella 1,3,7
Race 7:
(7) Rock Ya showed very good talent last prep and looked a good one in the making. Is 2/2 fresh but has been off the scene for 460 days, market might give us a guide on fitness levels.
(8) Sunlord is no star but was very consistent last prep in similar races. The fresh run was good, fitter now and can measure up again.
(10) Laridae can mix it up a bit but the last two have been very good. Took it to The Wheelbarrow last start and that horse is flying. Big gap to the 3rd horse and that’s always a good sign. I like that formline a lot. Light weight and hard to beat.
(5) Delrico may need another run but could improve 2nd up.
Selections:
(10) Laridae
(8) Sunlord
(7) Rock Ya
Suggested Bet: Win bet (10) Laridae
Race 8:
Could be a little trap race.
Most of these have found their mark. A couple are lightly raced so I am leaning their way but they only come off plain Maiden wins.
(11) Bells Of Steel was on speed and too good this track/trip last start. Has a good apprentice on top who claims again and will look the winner at some stage.
(14) Tam Na Ghar was in the market and proved too good after getting a nice run last start. Step in grade here obviously but can get some confidence from the last run and rock hard fit.
(6) Tomba has been good for the new stable. Has been strong late and could run over them late if the leaders are stopping. Peaks fitness wise 3rd up.
Selections:
(6) Tomba
(11) Bells Of Steel
(14) Tam Na Ghar
Suggested Bets: Just small (6) Tomba
