Surprised (4) Swift Endorsement is favourite. May be suited getting back onto dry ground, but can’t have him as short as the market.
(7) Jundah has trialled nicely ahead of her debut and she was saved from a wide draw last week to race here. She’s drawn for a soft run. The little query is she’s first-up at 1200m after only having one jump-out this campaign, but think she’s talented enough to win this.
(8) Just Magic is the other horse I think is over the odds. She didn’t seem to handle the wet on debut but improved markedly getting onto this track last time out. Was held up at a crucial stage but strong late. Step to 1200m ideal.
Suspect (11) March On By can improve this campaign. He’s jumped-out well and can lead them up in a race there doesn’t look huge pressure.
(1) Bradford was OK in the inferior ground last start.
Suggested bet: Backing both Jundar and Just Magic at $5.50 and $5. Quinella 7,8,11.
Good race. Really like how (3) First Regent has jumped-out for this. He has responded to light pressure late to win his last two jump-outs impressively on the Cranbourne synthetic. He has drawn well and should get a lovely run just behind the speed. Eurell has had five winners this track the past two Mondays.
(5) Vallo has trialled up nicely for his return in the shades. Slight concern he’s only had the one soft jump-out and maps to spot them a start, but will be strong late.
(6) Cosmic Shower has always shown good potential in trials but failed to bring it to race day.
Suggested bet: Like First Regent – think he can win on debut. Small save on Vallo.
Moderate race that has very little speed.
Hope they ride (10) The Lady Venus positively again as she could lead and take plenty of catching. She was narrowly beaten by Duntulm Lass last start who has since run very well again. That was only her second go at a mile and she had no issues with the trip. Big price.
(2) Rockin’ Dee Fox comes through the same race as the favourite (8) Shindy and he was every bit as good a run. He was eight weeks between runs going into that and it was his first go on a synthetic track – over the odds at $15.
(1) Fox Peril maps for a gun run firs time out to the mile. Comes through a handy 1400m race this track last time out.
Shindy can win, but is short enough for mine.
Suggested bet: Backing Rockin’ Dee Fox and The Lady Venus at double figures. Small save Fox Peril, as well.
(7) Duntulm Lass has been a different horse since she hit the synthetic. She has always shown talent, but has been her own worst enemy. She is still bombing the kick, but this track giving every horse its chance really suits her. She will again get back, but she can do it off fast or slow tempos. Provided she gets into clean air in the straight she will prove hard to hold out again.
(8) Queen Of The Surf raced in restricted room here last time out and now gets blinkers on for the first time. Will need a good ride from the gate but is right in the game.
Suggested bet: Keen Duntulm Lass. She loves this surface and can be winning again.
(6) Bardia’s Dream has been backed off the map. Get why, to a degree. Blinkers first time, was an impressive winner this track and trip first-up last campaign; that said, she was hugely flattered that day by the huge wind/sideways rain that belted everything on speed – that race was run in some of the worst conditions I can recall. Jump-outs have been quite dour – maybe the blinkers sharpen her up. Can absolutely win and goes in quaddies/exotics, but too short now, for mine.
(5) Affirmative Lad was given a sore back last time out, covering more ground than the early settlers. Get a senior on and a good draw – which are both positives. Always been a query at the end of 1200m, but is racing like he wants it.
Think (11) Qubella runs well here. Versatile galloper who has jumped-out really well for this return.
Suggested bet: Small win bets on Affirmative Lad/Qubella.
This gelding (3) Astari trialled just ‘OK’ leading into the campaign before missing the kick first up over 1000m. His race was all over before the home bend but he rattled home the best last 400/200m splits of the meeting. Ideally suited up to 1200m and provided he jumps cleanly I’d expect him to settle more forward in the run. Has a 4kg claimer on, which is a risk, but provided he jumps OK he maps for a really soft run and it gets him well away from his maiden danger in (1) Godtfred Kirk at the weights. Think he’s a good bet at $7 and can see him starting shorter.
Suggested bet: Something E/W Astari at $7.
(5) Immortal Triumph leads and will take a stack of catching back to a dry track and 1000m. First two runs this campaign on drier ground were excellent then has struggled on heavy tracks his past two. If he can get anywhere near the rating he posted at Geelong three back they won’t see which way he went – and that was the driest track he’s seen this campaign. A fair bit of the speed has come out of the race through scratchings/emergencies which only enhances his chances.
Think (1) Bold Print is right in the game down in grade. He has spent much of his career in much stronger company than this and after the claim for Bailey Kinninmont he gets in pretty well in a race where very few have claimed. Can quickly offset the wide draw and on a day of light winds not overly fazed if he sits deep.
Suggested bet: Really like this race. Best bet of the day backing both Bold Print and Immortal Triumph.
Wide open race to finish.
Have always had some time for (6) Mr Crafty. He trialled up well leading into the campaign and just got too far out of his ground first-up this track over 1200m. He was strong to, and through, the line, and the step to 1400m here is ideal. Like a senior rider taking over as he can get quite keen. Think he’s a big price at $14.
(5) Express Guard had no luck this track and trip last start. This is his first campaign for Brad Cunningham who trains locally here at Pakenham and he clearly enjoyed the surface. Drawn out, but he’s a horse that will get back anyway, so not worried about that. Think he will be strong late.
Suggested bet: Backing Express Guard/My Crafty
