Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: R6/2 Miss Sghirripa
Next Best: R3/5 Platino
Turf talk:
- Overcast conditions are forecast but little rain is expected, expecting the track will be presented as a Soft 5
- The rail pushes out from the previous meeting and will be in the True from 1700m-1500m & +3m the remainder
- In wet conditions the track may play off rails in the straight, give a slight advantage to runners who can get forwards but not expecting a savage leaders bias
Stats that matter
- Young trainer Justin Pickering brings 2 good chances to this meeting and his stable has a strong record at this track with a winning strike rate of 20.4% and a POT return of +48.2%
- Tala Hutchinson continues to be a profitable apprentice for punters to be following having ridden 21 winners in her last 100 rides with a POT return of +43.6%. She also has a POT return of +63.7% at this track alone from 40 rides
Race 1
(1) Lynch made his debut last week at Balaklava and looks likely to have improvement to come given he didn’t get the greatest of runs out wide and over raced on a slow tempo. He should be much better for that experience, and maps close to the inside so looks hard to beat with a better run. (5) Tai Po Jewel makes her debut, her trials recently have been better to the eye than what the finishing position suggests, and the last trial has proved to produce good form. (3) Morlock comes from the same Murray Bridge trial that has looked good after Damizer won last week, Rochelle Milnes sticks after that trial which is encouraging. (7) Tweeter gets into the race light at the weights after an apprentice claim and jumps from barrier 1 which could prove advantageous for a runner on debut.
Selections:
(1) Lynch
(5) Tai Po Jewel
(3) Morlock
(7) Tweeter
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2
(12) Sahha Sweetie resumes for her 2nd campaign, she may have more upside than some of her rivals here being only lightly raced and she looked to have improvement when winning a recent trial at Strathalbyn. (4) Moussaka has good early speed and can potentially lead this field up in the early stages, he has run into the placings in 2 of his last 3 runs so doesn’t appear to far from a breakthrough. (8) All Too Elegant has started at long odds in her 2 career starts, she gets a senior jockey today and jumps from barrier 2 so expecting she can race positively which should give her a chance to find some improvement. (5) No Mans Land has looked handy enough in 2 recent trials to suggest he could be capable of a strong performance on debut.
Selections:
(12) Sahha Sweetie
(4) Moussaka
(8) All Too Elegant
(5) No Mans Land
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3
(5) Platino was well supported when on debut at Horsham but jumped slow and found himself in an awkward position early, he then over raced off a slow tempo and looked green. He knuckled down well in the straight and ran on well late, expecting he will be better for that experience and put in an improved performance. (6) Winston’s Pride resumes for his 2nd preparation; he has finished midfield in both career runs but did run well in a recent trial which suggests that he could return here an improved product. (9) Forever A Diamond looks the likely leader of the race with a favourable map, he faded late last time after taking up the lead but Murray Bridge is a hard track to lead at so he could be better suited here. (1) Artful Maximus is another runner who may look to lead or at least settle positively in the run, a drop back in distance to the 1200m should suit him and see him stronger late in the run.
Selections:
(5) Platino
(6) Winston’s Pride
(9) Forever A Diamond
(1) Artful Maximus
Suggested Bet: (5) Platino – Win
Race 4
(1) Goldfields Grey ran into the placings when resuming but finished a long way off the winner after getting too far back, he may have found them too sharp at that distance and looks much better suited over more ground today and fitter 2nd up. (11) Patanjali recently resumed here at Gawler and was quite good late in the run despite coming off a long spell, he is fitter 2nd up now and up in distance should suit. (7) Andrefi should find this a slightly easier maiden than the other 2 she has contested so far this prep, a rise in distance should suit also but she needs luck early from a wide barrier. (8) Copperflange maps well jumping from an inside barrier, in a race that is likely to lack much early speed he should settle prominently in the run and may get run of the race.
Selections:
(1) Goldfields Grey
(11) Patanjali
(7) Andrefi
(8) Copperflange
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5
(7) Petit Eagle ran on strongly late in her last start over this same track/distance set up. She finds herself in a similar race and potentially finds herself meeting a slightly easier field here today, if she runs up to her last start she should again figure in the finish. (9) Loca Bella has proved hard to catch in her career with only 1 win from 20 starts, but her last 2 runs have been strong when running 2nd in both. She has placed over this distance previously and a wet track suits her. (2) Southern Monarch has made a strong start to her career winning 2 of 3 runs so far into it. She maps well jumping from barrier 1 and if she can show the same early speed that she has in previous starts, she will likely find the lead and could prove hard to run down. (4) I’m Kenny is a tough veteran runner who can be adaptable in all conditions and gets a positive race map so expect he will land in a strong position in the run and can threaten down in grade today
Selections:
(7) Petit Eagle
(9) Loca Bella
(2) Southern Monarch
(4) I’m Kenny
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6
(2) Miss Sghirripa ran on well when resuming at Strathalbyn, she is now fitter 2nd up and rising in distance, and was a winner at a similar set up last prep, she is dropping in grade and looks well set up in this. (4) Tahnee Territory is 1st up here today, she was a winner 1st up last prep and comes into this having won a recent trial at Murray Bridge so expect her to be capable of firing 1st up, she can potentially push forwards and lead. (3) Mondello is another runner who may look to lead jumping from the inside barrier. She was solid when resuming and running 2nd at Strathalbyn and with the extra fitness now can go one better in this set up. If the track was to deteriorate and get to a heavy, that could best suit (6) Pretentious Lass who has a super record in wet conditions She has a light weight on her back after an apprentice claim so could be well set up in the conditions.
Selections:
(2) Miss Sghirripa
(4) Tahnee Territory
(3) Mondello
(6) Pretentious Lass
Suggested Bet: (2) Miss Sghirripa – Win
Race 7
(7) Rob The Bank ran on strongly late at Horsham but had to settle for 2nd when he couldn’t reel in the leader. That was on a heavy rated track so he proved he can handle the wet conditions which he likely gets here today, he maps to settle in a strong position. (3) Fussy As maps as the likely race leader but will need to be quick early to get across from barrier 10. His last 2 runs have been moderate, but conditions look favourable for his chances so expecting improvement. (8) Lakehurst is a last start winner at Pt Augusta and while this is harder, he has won twice over this track/distance set up and wouldn’t surprise. He may not want the track too wet though as that may affect his chances. (4) Vexatious Choice ran on well when resuming at Strathalbyn, he is fitter today and rising in distance which should suit.
Selections:
(7) Rob The Bank
(3) Fussy As
(8) Lakehurst
(4) Vexatious Choice
Suggested Bet: No bet
