Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: R1 (3) Free Beer
Next Best: R4 (3) The Narrator
Value Bet: R8 (2) Test The Law
Turf Talk
- The track is rated a Soft 7 but with clear conditions forecast, we could see an improvement and likely race on something closer to a Soft 6.
- The rail returns to the True position for this feature.
- Generally a fair track and, in these even conditions, it should give all runners their chance if good enough.
Stats that matter
- Justin Pickering brings two strong chances to this meeting and his stable has previously had a strong record at this track, with a 17.4% winning strike rate and a POT of +57.3%.
- Harry Grace has been riding well in metro meetings and is in form, having ridden 11 winners from his last 100 rides to return a POT of +33.7%. He also boasts a strong record at this track, with a POT of +20.1% from 187 rides.
Race by race overview
Race 1
(3) Free Beer resumes here today with a set up that looks ideal. He boasts a good first-up record having won twice when fresh into a prep, but also boasts a strong record at this track having won 2/2. Getting onto a wet surface will likely also be ideal. (5) Hot Strut may look to settle forwards in the run which could suit in the small field, and he can be an improver here today down slightly in grade and fitter second-up. (4) Cork Harbour loomed to win at big odds in his last start but couldn’t reel in a strong winner. He maps to push forwards in this race and is in light at the weights so could give cheek. (6) World Action is down slightly in grade and at peak fitness at this point of her prep. She gets her chance in suitable conditions.
Selections:
(3) Free Beer
(5) Hot Strut
(4) Cork Harbour
(6) World Action
Suggested Bet: (3) Free Beer Win
Race 4
(3) The Narrator kicked off this campaign with a big win at Warrnambool, producing a career peak performance. If that was any indicator of the improvement he may have found since a spell, he is capable of finding more and improving again here, which would have him hard to beat. Wet conditions suit and he looks well set up. (7) Simply Outrageous was a huge winner two starts back before a midfield effort at Ballarat when up in grade. The worry would be she didn’t handle a wet track last time, which she may get here, but if she handles the conditions her best is good enough. (5) Four Outlaws was moderate when resuming but he may be better suited here today fitter second-up and getting back to his home track where he has a good record. (6) Geffina was a winner in her last start at Warrnambool. She can build from that and a wet track would suit.
Selections:
(3) The Narrator
(7) Simply Outrageous
(5) Four Outlaws
(6) Geffina
Suggested Bet: (3) The Narrator Win
Race 8
(2) Test The Law comes into this race fresh having been recently contesting stronger races. Despite him having a gap between runs, he has had two nice trials since and won both of those. He handles all conditions and is at peak fitness, so may put in a strong performance. (1) Any Luck is a last-start winner when taking out the Listed Warrnambool Cup. This is much easier, and she should prove hard to beat if she holds that form. (5) Van Roy may look to lead the field up from a wide barrier. He is in form having won the Penola Cup two starts back and then putting in a good run in a stronger race at The Bool. (4) Astradeel was an impressive winner when he resumed at Warrnambool recently. Expect he can be suited rising in distance now off that performance and, if it gets to a genuinely wet track, he will be suited.
Selections:
(2) Test The Law
(1) Any Luck
(5) Van Roy
(4) Astradeel
Suggested Bet: (2) Test The Law Win
