Summary of Best Bets
- Best Bet: Race 7 (1) In That Mode
- Next Best: Race 3 (8) Blindato
- Value Bet: Race 8 (3) Toes In First
Turf Talk
- Rain overnight Tuesday has been forecast on an already heavy-rated track. Working off a Heavy 9 but it could push to a Heavy 10 depending on how much rain falls.
- The rail moves out from the previous meeting and will be +3m the entire circuit.
- The track generally plays fairly in wet conditions, so expect runners to be able to win from all positions if good enough.
Stats that matter
- Campbell Rawiller is starting to get back into strong form, having ridden 13 winners from his previous 100 rides and returning a POT of +13.9%.
- Harry Grace rides this track extremely well. From nearly 200 rides he has a winning strike rate of 14.9% and a POT of +21.1%.
- Adam Chambers travels here with just one runner but continues to be profitable to follow with 17 winners from his last 100 runners and a POT of +62.6%.
Race 1
(11) Bella Angelica resumes for her second preparation here. She showed flashes of talent in her debut campaign including running second here two starts ago. She has trialled up well recently which suggests she is capable of finding enough improvement to be a winning chance.
(13) Stand Alone recently made her debut in a stronger maiden at Morphettville. She has to improve but should be better for that run and will be suited dropping in grade. She also gets in light at the weights.
(10) Meadows Flyer is another runner who is first-up here today. The two-year-old races she came out of earlier in the year were handy races. She may be up against stronger horses and a heavy track but if she handles that she should go close.
A few make their debut here but the best of them could be (3) Habondia who has looked handy in recent trials. Harry Grace rides which could help at a track where he has good success.
Selections:
(11) Bella Angelica
(13) Stand Alone
(10) Meadows Flyer
(8) Vosstaniya
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 2
(4) Magnetic Chess looks hard to beat here. He showed glimpses of talent in his debut campaign and has good early speed and a soft race map. He should push forward and be hard to catch in the conditions but has come up very short in markets.
(9) Zarubina is resuming. She has had plenty of chances in her career and is still chasing a first win, but all of her best runs have come on heavy ground so she should handle this track and is in light at the weights.
(12) Terralight mixed his form last prep but went to the paddock after improving at Penola and running into the placings. He comes into this with two recent trial runs so should be in good order.
(6) La Moma looks likely to handle the conditions here at her home track so she could surprise.
Selections:
(4) Magnetic Chess
(9) Zarubina
(12) Terralight
(6) La Moma
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 3
(8) Blindato looks to have good talent having kicked his career off with a win on debut before tackling a stronger race at Morphettville behind the smart Royal Sway. He looks suited back down in grade and rising in distance. They could run along here which will set him up to swoop over the top.
(4) Eyes To Me made a solid return to racing when running third here first-up. He is fitter now second-up and suited rising in distance so is capable of finding improvement slightly down in grade.
(9) Otto’s Dream won on debut for his new stable and rises in grade now. The distance should prove no issue as he will likely push forward and has a light weight.
(2) Black Sea can get a soft run jumping from barrier three and will find this easier than the race he contested last start. Can improve at peak fitness now.
Selections:
(8) Blindato
(4) Eyes To Me
(9) Otto’s Dream
(2) Black Sea
Suggested Bet: (8) Blindato (Win)
Race 4
(2) El Paso Citie has run into the placings in four of his last five starts and can race on speed in a handy spot from barrier one. If he handles the conditions he could prove tough to catch.
(10) Aquaholic kicked off this prep with a close second here on Cup Day. He goes well in the conditions on his home track and should find this a drop in grade which may see him go one better.
(1) Eugenius was a winner two starts back before contesting a much stronger race at Morphettville last time and running midfield. Expect improvement in an easier race and he may surprise at decent odds if he produces his best.
(11) Atomova was a winner on a heavy track 2 starts back so will handle the expected conditions and gets in here light at the weight compared to key rivals so could tick along well and be hitting the line strongly late.
Selections:
(2) El Paso Citie
(10) Aquaholic
(1) Eugenius
(11) Atomova
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5
(3) Taino Rocket was moderate at Balaklava when resuming but since then has had a trial where he looked back to his better form. He can get a soft run just behind the speed and should find this slightly easier than his last few starts, so expecting sharp improvement.
Veteran (12) Melissa Kate has a strong record here at her home track and on heavy-rated tracks, so expect she can put in a strong performance in an ideal set-up.
(9) Pretentious Lass was a long way off the winner last start but can find improvement dropping down in grade and getting onto a heavy-rated track where she has a super record.
(11) Victory Queen resumes. She should be suited in the conditions as her sole career win came on a heavy track here at Mount Gambier. Her recent trials suggest she should resume in tidy order.
Selections:
(3) Taino Rocket
(12) Melissa Kate
(9) Pretentious Lass
(11) Victory Queen
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 6
(3) Scenic Host won her last start here on Cup Day and looks to again get suitable conditions. She is rising in distance which should suit after that last performance and is a winner in the expected wet conditions so can go on with it.
(8) Affaire Vue drops slightly in grade and is a last-start winner. She may have the class of the field and while she has a wide barrier, she has good early speed so can push forward and put herself in an ideal position.
(6) Mr Trafficanti was a winner two starts back before a decent showing in a stronger race at Murray Bridge last time. He can improve dropping in grade and the rise in distance looks ideal.
(4) Giddy Up Bankcheck was a good winner here last month and needs to step up in grade but the way he was hitting the line last start suggests he will be suited here and would not surprise at big odds.
Selections:
(3) Scenic Host
(8) Affaire Vue
(6) Mr Trafficanti
(4) Giddy Up Bankcheck
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 7
(1) In That Mode is in super form and well down in grade for this race. He has a big weight but rates highly and can get a soft race map which will help offset that impost. Wet track conditions are expected to suit and he looks hard to beat.
(2) Hard Leaf won well here at his previous start and this race appears to set up very similarly. He has a good record at the track and goes well on heavy ground so should get every chance again.
(10) Sweater Girl needs to handle the wet track conditions but maps as the likely leader so should be in this for a long way.
(8) Supreme Thunder broke through for a win here last start. He has a consistent record at the track so sets up well again if he handles the wet ground.
Selections:
(1) In That Mode
(2) Hard Leaf
(10) Sweater Girl
(8) Supreme Thunder
Suggested Bet: (1) In That Mode (Win)
Race 8
Competitive race to finish the day. (3) Toes In First went well here last start when running a close second. He maps for a better run today and looks suited rising in distance so should be capable of finding improvement.
(5) Bruzani was solid when resuming but will likely be better suited fitter now and rising in distance. He gets a more favourable set-up here.
(10) On The Map was hitting the line strongly last start and appears likely to be suited by the rise in distance.
(2) Robert The Puss mixes his form and does not win often but is consistent and should find this easier than his previous run. In these wet conditions he is capable of finding improvement and being a winning chance.
Selections:
(3) Toes In First
(5) Bruzani
(10) On The Map
(2) Robert The Puss
Suggested Bet: (3) Toes In First (Eachway)
