Summary of Best Bets:
Race 1 No.6 Miss Boom
Value bet: Race 4 No.2 Renegade Chief
Best bet: Race 7 No.3 Super Valentine
Turf Talk:
- Clear weather is forecast for race day so expect that the track to remain a Good 4 through the meeting.
- The rail will remain in the True position as it was at the previous meeting here on 23rd of Jan.
- The track is generally quite fair, do give a slight advantage to locals.
Key Stats:
- Garret Lynch’s team have a good record at this track with a winning strike rate of 20.4% at a POT of +18%.
- Sairyn Fawke has a good record riding at this track with a winning strike rate of 10.6% from 565 rides here and a positive POT return of +13.6%.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
(6) Miss Boom was solid when on debut for a new stable and running into 3rd in a strong mid-week level maiden at Murray Bridge. She was hitting the line strongly there so should be suited fitter 2nd up now and rising in distance. (4) Grinzinger Gold improved last start to finish in the placings over this same track/distance set up. She maps better here again today and could improve again. (1) Alabama Award maps as a likely leader and could be advantaged from that position. (7) Mithras has to improve to be a winning chance but wasn’t too far away in a similar race last start so could again be around the mark with the right run.
Selections:
(6) Miss Boom
(4) Grinzinger Gold
(1) Alabama Award
(7) Mithras
Suggested Bet: (6) Miss Boom (Win)
Race 2:
(4) Uncle Barry is on debut for a new stable here today, his previous form back in NSW rates highly in this field and he maps for a soft run from barrier 1, looks capable of winning if he maintains his previous form. (11) Reiby Princess is a long time maiden and has had plenty of goes, but her recent form has been the best of her career placing in all her last 4 runs at this track. From a race map perspective she sets up for a good run so could finally get her breakthrough today. (2) Sir Dalapena was solid in a similar race last time but given that run, he could be better suited coming back to the 1000m trip. (7) Dragon Fish has good early speed and can race in a good position from barrier 2, maps as a likely leader and could take catching.
Selections:
(4) Uncle Barry
(11) Reiby Princess
(2) Sir Dalapena
(7) Dragon Fish
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 3:
(3) Elegant Man makes his debut for a new stable today, his Victorian form was solid for a race of this level, and he should still maintain a good fitness level, can race on speed for a long way. (4) Explicable drops slightly in grade from the race he contested last week, suited down in grade and maps for a soft run which should help him see out the rise in distance. (1) Arlo’s Dream was a winner two starts back and may have had some issues in his last start, he can bounce back here in an easier set up and back in distance suits. (5) Noyers has a consistent record over this same track/distance set up, he looks likely to appreciate racing back at his home track.
Selections:
(3) Elegant Man
(4) Explicable
(1) Arlo’s Dream
(5) Noyers
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 4:
(2) Renegade Chief won impressively over this same track/distance last start to breakthrough for his maiden victory. His previous form had read well and he is lightly raced so may have the upside to be winning again and looks likely to race in a prominent position from barrier 3. (1) Tripod Terror ran a close 2nd in a stronger race in his last start, if he can hold that form he sets up well here returning to the track/distance that his only career win has come at. (3) Game Over is a last start winner here showing good speed to lead that race, he draws in much lower today so could get a softer run and improve enough to be winning again. (11) Aggressive Bee could peak at this point of the prep 3rd up and fit now, she gets in well at the weights after an apprentice claim so can surprise.
Selections:
(2) Renegade Chief
(1) Tripod Terror
(3) Game Over
(11) Aggressive Bee
Suggested Bet: (2) Renegade Chief (Win)
Race 5:
This race doesn’t have a great deal of speed in it which should see (8) Ze Birds’n’zebees get an ideal run which should suit from a wider barrier, he has a good record when coming to this track so should appreciate this set up. (3) Navy Gold looks likely to be suited dropping in grade for this race today, needs to handle a drop in distance but sets up much better at this level now. (4) Star Valour has a consistent record at this track and can find a good position in run from barrier 2. (10) Queenoftheair jumps from barrier 1 and will have a light weight on her back after an apprentice claim, with this set up she could race more forwards and will be in the race for a long way.
Selections:
(8) Ze Birds’n’zebees
(3) Navy Gold
(4) Star Valour
(10) Queenoftheair
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 6:
(9) Samanth has been well supported in her last two starts in races that rated similar to what she again faces here today. Jumping from barrier 3 should land her in a good position and she drops weight from her last start thanks to a 2kg apprentice claim. (2) Cullen Skink hasn’t been in the greatest of form in his most recent runs but can be an improver here dropping down in grade. (3) Sir Panama has a super record at this track/distance (6:3-1-1) and looks close to a win having placed in his last 2 runs, needs an even track from the wide barrier. (6) Bona Fide Star debuts for a new stable and will be better suited here today dropping back in grade from his most recent runs.
Selections:
(9) Samanth
(2) Cullen Skink
(3) Sir Panama
(6) Bona Fide Star
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 7:
(3) Super Valentine was running well here at this track recently before he went to Morphettville to tackle a stronger race. He had little luck from a wide position in the stronger race so should be better suited today from a lower barrier and returning to a track he has a good record at. (8) Thinkingnintynine has placed in 4 of his last 5 starts and sets up well here for a good run out in front from a low barrier and with a handy apprentice claim, he gets in well here at the weights so could take catching. (9) Star Casino was solid when resuming but looks likely to be an improver fitter 2nd up today and rising in distance. (2) There Goes My Hero makes his debut for a new stable and kicks off down in grade which will suit, the wide barrier could make it tough for him to find a good position in run early.
Selections:
(3) Super Valentine
(8) Thinkingnintynine
(9) Star Casino
(2) There Goes My Hero
Suggested Bet: (3) Super Valentine (Win)
Race 8:
(5) Strawberry Swing returns to his home track where he has had a consistent record at through his career. He looks likely to race on speed from the low barrier and will get in light at the weights, sets up well for this. (8) Skating On By is lightly raced but has won over this track/distance set up previously. She jumps from barrier 1 which gives her a good set up. (7) Amani Farasi may have had excuses last start when putting in a poor run, she can bounce back down in level from where she has been racing recently. (3) Solar Gaze was a winner here two starts back before rising in distance in his next run which may not have suited. He comes into this fresh and drops back in grade so can improve with a better set up.
Selections:
(5) Strawberry Swing
(8) Skating On By
(7) Amani Farasi
(3) Solar Gaze
Suggested Bet: No Bet
