Racelab Ratings: Collum finds value plays in the 2026 Adelaide Cup

Racelab’s Matt Collum has taken a forensic look at the Adelaide Cup using their ratings system to assist working out who’s best credentialed to take out this year’s race.

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In The Lab | Adelaide Cup | Group 2 Handicap 3200m

The track – unique features of Morphettville 3200m course, advantages PIR/barriers:

• Good 4. Rail True. Fine
• Track should play very fair with all runners getting their chance

Main Contenders

1. BERKELEY SQUARE

• Trainer: Dan O’Sullivan

• Weight: 59.5 kg (topweight)

• Barrier: 1

Why he stands out:

• Arrives after an impressive victory at Flemington while carrying a big weight.

• Proven stamina profile and an ideal inside draw.

• Despite carrying topweight, he is widely regarded as the runner to beat.

2. HIGHLAND BLING (IRE)

• Trainer: Phillip Stokes

• Weight: 53 kg

• Barrier: 17

Why he’s a contender:

• Expected to be prominent in the betting.

• Has produced solid staying performances in recent lead-up races.

• The light weight gives him a strong chance over the 3200m trip.

3. NEWFOUNDLAND (IRE)

• Trainer: Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott

• Weight: 54 kg

• Barrier: 15

Why he’s in the mix:

• Prepared by a stable renowned for producing successful stayers.

• Likely to race prominently with front-running tactics.

• Carries a competitive weight and has credible staying form.

• Can run the distance and the blinkers go back on. Jumped out nicely between runs without the shades

Local Chances

4. EVENTUALLY

• A lightly weighted mare whose recent form has been improving, including multiple wins.

• Could be competitive if she runs out the full distance.

• In career best form

5. KOMACHI (IRE)

• Consistent performer with reliable recent form.

• European breeding suggests the staying distance should suit.

6. CRIMSON VINE (NZ)

• Strong New Zealand staying pedigree.

• Recent performances indicate she could be a placing chance.

• Excuses last start

Other Key Runners

• HURRY CURRY (NZ) – Comes off a win and carries just 53 kg, making him a possible value runner.

• ZIBULON (FR) – European-bred stayer who may improve over the longer distance.

• AMERICAN WOLF (NZ) – Lightly raced stayer that should be suited up in trip. Will appreciate the weight drop.

The Racelab Prime Ratings for each horse can be seen in the screenshot below:

The verdict and betting strategy:

Eighteen runners will compete in the 2026 Adelaide Cup over two miles. There are a number of these horses that are poorly weighted under the handicap conditions. Berkeley Square has a task with a weight of 59.5kg and 106 JTD . Career peak of 107 l/s. Hoof filler first time isn’t ideal. Newfoundland was brave in the Cup last year and get the blinkers back on. Highland Bling should improve here third-up but I think he’s skinny enough. The first runner at a price that is low-flying is Eventually. She won the Lord Reims narrowly but finished with the best closing sectionals in the race. I love how she keeps closing off strongly and Sarah Rutten is doing a fantastic job with her – she’s worth a play at the odds. American Wolf is another horse with a big finish. He kept on coming last start with a big weight and drops down to 53kg. Wouldn’t be surprised to see an improved effort from him.

Back Eventually WIN

Back American Wolf WIN

Legend: