Best Bet: R6 (8) Jarrito WIN
Next Best: R2 (3) Chanterelle WIN
Next Best: R1 (3) Castillo King WIN
Best Value: R4 (4) Champagne Hero WIN
Turf Talk
- Drying conditions overall. The track is currently rated a Soft 6, but I dare say we will be back onto a Soft 5/Good 4 come race day.
- The rail is in the True position for the entire circuit and I expect horses landing on speed and getting into lanes 2-6 in the straight to be advantaged.
Key stats:
Hot
- Bjorn Baker is striking at 25.9% from his last 81 runners, returning an impressive +22.4% POT.
- Dylan Gibbons is riding well and remains heavily underrated, striking at 42% with an impressive +7% POT from his past 76 rides.
Not
- Price & Kent Jnr have slumped to a concerning 13.5% strike rate from their past 74 runners at a -29.8% POT.
- Sam Clipperton is struggling at the moment, striking at 3.6% with a -79.1% POT.
Race 1
We kick off the program with a Wednesday treat, with plenty of nice 2YO colts and geldings doing battle over the 1100m. Excited to see the covers come off the highly-touted Castillo King, who has lit up the trials with back-to-back dynamic efforts and maps to get his chance to show off. Eviction Notice returns for his second preparation as a gelding. He lit up the trials in his debut prep but was too weak in his races. Two smart trials and he is the leader on paper. Auroa Boom is right in the mix. The map is the query, but he’s got an engine under the hood, no doubt. Stronghold rounds out the numbers as a winning chance. He’s another strong trialler who will win races.
Selections:
(3) Castillo King
(6) Eviction Notice
(2) Auroa Boom
(11) Stronghold
Suggested Bet: Castillo King WIN
Race 2
The 2YO fillies turn now and boy, do we have a smart betting contest. Chanterelle is one of the most fascinating runners on the card. Very well bred and comes off one of the best 2YO trials I’ve seen this season. She will have the Waterhouse & Bott 2YO polish and maps to get her chance to put up a big debut number. Coco Affair is the danger, returning for her second preparation after being hammered in betting on debut. She’s no doubt furnished. Oh Yes She Did has switched to the Peter Snowden camp after failing last prep. I’ve been impressed with her trials and she’s another who maps well. Rocket Girl goes in the numbers as a solid winning chance also. Slightly sticky map, but another with race experience.
Selections:
(3) Chanterelle
(4) Coco Affair
(9) Oh Yes She Did
(12) Rocket Girl
Suggested Bet: Chanterelle WIN
Race 3
Plenty to play out here prior to jump time, with Waller having six of the 10 runners engaged. Claudel copped a tough run in transit last time out when trapped three-wide on speed. From the 1400m start here and with the wide draw, I expect Berry to push the button early and roll across. The stablemate Saloon Passage is the danger, working well towards a win and finally draws well. Indigo Star has reached its level, draws well and is gifted the best jockey in the race with Lloyd aboard. Clanwilliam figured out its pattern last start, ridden dead cold and asked for one effort late. Look for similar here.
Selections:
(3) Claudel
(11) Saloon Passage
(9) Indigo Star
(4) Clanwilliam
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 4
No real tempo to report up front here over the mile trip. Tricky race on paper. Champagne Hero goes on top, having begun slowly last start before being shut out on the turn. He then picked himself up and flashed late. Second-up, rises in trip and maps ideally. Charleroi did a good job first-up on the heavy deck, strips fitter second-up and should improve on a slightly firmer track. All Star and Dynast King both come through a strong-rating Kembla Grange race. All Star is the map horse here and is the pick of the two.
Selections:
(4) Champagne Hero
(6) Charleroi
(7) All Star
(9) Dynast King
Suggested Bet: Champagne Hero EW
Race 5
No speed at all up front here over the 1600m for the second of the BM72s. I can’t go past the in-form, progressive Satono Jasmine. The penny has dropped in her past two starts, showing off her smart turn of speed. The smaller field here is the query, but if it’s a sit-and-sprint, it’s likely game over for her rivals. Alabama Blitz didn’t have a whole lot of luck fresh over 1350m at Wyong. I expect an on-speed performance here second-up at big odds. Wootton Way maps ideally from barrier 1, rising from 1300m to 1600m. The sit-and-sprint caught her flat-footed last time out and the rise in trip should solve that issue. Deep Pleasure next best. Look for apprentice Kock to slide across from the wide gate.
Selections:
(5) Satono Jasmine
(3) Alabama Blitz
(9) Wootton Way
(2) Deep Pleasure
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 6
Keen to bet into this BM72 over the 1100m. Slightly above-average tempo expected up front. Jarrito draws perfectly in barrier 2 and should glide to the front. He was dominant fresh before a sound second-up effort behind the subsequent Saturday winner Benevac. The big tick coming Wednesday is the move from a soft deck to a good deck. Capture Me is the danger but will need a smart ride from the wide gate. Fitness gave out fresh, but the tick-over trial should have him tip-top. Engine Room may turn out to be the best horse in this race, but all of his best form has come over 1300m-plus. The big weight and short trip are negatives. Let’s Go Again has been well backed from $13 into $8 in early markets. Monitoring.
Selections:
(8) Jarrito
(10) Capture Me
(2) Engine Room
(9) Let’s Go Again
Suggested Bet: Jarrito WIN
Race 7
We round out the program with Winston Hills at big odds. He doesn’t go a yard on rain-affected tracks rated Soft 7 or worse. Back to a dry deck here should see him bounce right back to form. Mamushka is the obvious danger, drawn well, strips fitter and brings the best last-start rating to this event. The one to beat. Dusty Bay maps to find the one-one as well as getting in light with the white-hot Siena Grima in the saddle. Rimbaud rounds out the numbers after being well backed in early markets. Strong last-start win and is in form.
Selections:
(4) Winston Hills
(6) Mamushka
(9) Dusty Bay
(5) Rimbaud
Suggested Bet: No Bet
