Summary of Best Bets:
Race 1 #4 Saint Boom – Suited dropping in grade but also rising in distance.
Race 2 #6 Breakfast – Resuming off a strong trial and maps for the ideal run.
Race 7 #4 See Ya Later Baby (Best) – Should appreciate extra fitness here 2nd up today.
Turf Talk:
- Rail position remains as it was here last meeting on 15th October and is +2m 1900m-1550m, +3m 1550m – 950m & True Remainder.
- Clear weather is forecast for race day and the lead up so the track is expected to present as a Good 4 with the chance of a track upgrade to a 3 at some stage given the warm conditions.
- With a similar set up at the previous meeting it was advantageous to be on speed. Expecting a similar set up today with inside lanes likely favourable.
Stats that matter:
- Campbell Rawiller has continued his strong form and boasts a winning strike rate of 15% in his last 100 rides at a POT of +49%. He has also produced a POT of +26.6% at this track.
- Sarah Rutten has a POT of +69.3% from 6 recent winners at Balaklava – a clear happy hunting ground.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
(4) Saint Boom was an impressive winner at Murray Bridge two starts ago before running into the placings in a stronger race last time out, expect he will be better suited today down in grade and rising slightly in distance.
(2) Melodia Legend went along out in front and proved hard to catch when winning his maiden over this same track/distance, needs to take a step up for this but capable.
(7) By The Book hasn’t won for some time and should find this easier than her last start, she ran a close 3rd in a race over this track/distance set up recently.
(3) Kikorangi has finished down the field in his past two starts, but broke his maiden status at this track prior to that. He will likely push forwards and may be an improver with a soft run out in front.
Selections:
(4) Saint Boom
(2) Melodia Legend
(7) By The Book
(3) Kikorangi
Suggested Bet: (4) Saint Boom (Win)
Race 2:
(6) Breakfast resumes for another preparation having run well in some stronger contests last time in work, she maps well to be on speed and drawn to the inside. Her recent trial work was impressive with conditions in her favour she should get every chance.
(7) Dirty Old Town ran 2nd on debut over this same track/distance set up, any improvement from that performance should see her go close in a similar level of race.
(8) Go Ask Alice has shown good speed in recent runs so should be prominent in the running here, this looks an easier level Maiden than what she has contested in his last couple of starts.
(4) Wine Snob looks the best of the runners on debut, and the Jolly team have a good strike rate when bringing debutants to this track.
Selections:
(6) Breakfast
(7) Dirty Old Town
(8) Go Ask Alice
(4) Wine Snob
Suggested Bet: (6) Breakfast (Win)
Race 3:
(1) Chur Nibble is on the quick back-up having made his Australian debut last week. He was well supported but it didn’t fully go to plan, and he only managed 2nd. He maps well here and gets an on-speed run, feel if he runs up to his rating he should be hard to beat.
(4) Mr Zeus looks suited 2nd up now and rising in distance, if the track is playing as expected he will get an advantage from the barrier.
(2) Classy Claret is 3rd up here today and quickly up to the 1600m trip which should be suitable.
(6) Prince Lucifer has placed in two of his last three starts, some are rising to the 1600m trip, but he is at peak fitness for this distance so should be strong late.
Selections:
(1) Chur Nibble
(4) Mr Zeus
(2) Classy Claret
(6) Prince Lucifer
Suggested Bet- Chur Nibble has the ratings profile for this grade but want to see him perform here before trusting enough to back him fully.
Race 4:
(13) Synthesise contested stronger races at black type level last prep and was solid when resuming recently and running into the placings, rising in trip here 2nd up and fitter will suit, she looks ready to break through in Maiden grade.
(12) Oak Park Maddison was backed off the map, but disappointing last start given her starting price, she may be an improver here in different conditions.
(3) Moussaka is fitter 2nd up now and will be better suited at this track that favours on speed types and after a big debut performance at odds, (4) Real World could be an improver on a track that is expected to suit.
Selections:
(13) Synthesise
(12) Oak Park Maddison
(3) Moussaka
(4) Real World
Suggested Bet – Looks a race between the top two selections but don’t have the confidence to be betting to split the pair.
Race 5:
(2) Thinkingnintynine drops in grade today after a solid run in The Clare Cup last start and in stronger races previously this prep. He can push forwards and be prominent in the running and with weight relief after an apprentice claim he could take catching.
(1) Take A Pick is similar to Thinkingnintynine dropping in grade from his most previous runs, his form reads well but the big weight at this trip is his small query.
(3) Fiora Blue is on the quick back-up having won well last week at Gawler defeating a well-favoured runner. She jumps from the inside barrier here today which should suit.
(6) Fantastic Host has mixed his form in similar level races of late, but he has a good record here at Balaklava (8:2-2-2) so may find enough improvement here to be competitive.
Selections:
(2) Thinkingnintynine
(1) Take A Pick
(3) Fiora Blue
(6) Fantastic Host
Suggested Bet – No bet, hard to have confidence in these staying affairs that look even on paper.
Race 6:
(2) Real Valentia was good when winning last start at Clare, he was well suited that day on a quick track and looks likely to get a similar set up here today. He has a good record here but may need some luck from the wider barrier.
(1) Lastar looks suited rising up to the 1200m trip here today after hitting the line strongly in his last few starts, may be further back than midfield in the run so will be hoping for a fair track.
(9) Pulambi is dropping slightly in grade from her last start and maps well from a low barrier, she can improve on recent performances with the right run on this track.
(10) Revolution Belle needs to find improvement from her recent form but she could be a chance to do that here with a positive race map on a track that is expected to suit her pattern, looks a rough chance but is better suited in these conditions today.
Selections:
(2) Real Valentia
(1) Lastar
(9) Pulambi
(10) Revolution Belle
Suggested Bet – No bet, would have been keener if the more favoured chances had drawn better
Race 7:
(4) See Ya Later Baby was well in the market when resuming and did run into 2nd over this same track/distance. Expect he will be fitter for that run and comes into this 2nd up now where he has won previously, given the extra fitness and race map advantages he gets he should be suited.
(9) Press Express has been consistent in similar races without winning, but he may be suited here today and jumping from an inside barrier should have him in a good position.
(6) Pricilla’s Choice needs to be included as she did defeat See Ya Later Baby here recently, but the wide barrier could make for a tricky run.
(7) Rokabye Warrior is coming into this race off the back of a win at Gawler, he ran 3rd previously in a similar race to this today but may be an improver with what looks a favourable race map.
Selections:
(4) See Ya Later Baby
(9) Press Express
(6) Pricilla’s Choice
(7) Rokabye Warrior
Suggested Bet – (4) See Ya Later Baby (Win)
