Betsy’s Set: Cranbourne

Race 1

Speed probably comes from (5) Thorin and (6) Prince Tycoon. Thorin gets out in trip as the campaign goes on but he has been right on speed in jump-outs. (8) Al Prancer and (7) Stealth Of Night next in line from maybe (1) Kahhof.

A most even race.

(3) Madiyya has immense talent and a lethal turn of foot. Her jump-outs have been good. The knock is she might spot them a reasonable start, but the small field is in her favour. She will be better suited as the distances increase but can absolutely win this first up. They go for the 2kg claim here for Luke Cartwright, but it’s fair to say he needs to improve on recent form going at 5% from his last 100 rides.

Al Prancer can run well at odds. He has a fitness edge on a couple of key rivals and he’s been running well despite having tough runs in transit from wide draws. He has been three wide no cover in both runs this campaign but got his maiden out of the way first up at Bendigo and was only nabbed in the shadows here at Cranbourne last start.

Stealth of Night did an amazing job first-up last campaign off 68 weeks when winning at Pakenham over 1200m. She then dug deep at the same track at her only other run in the campaign – that has been a strong form race. She has had another decent break leading into this and trials have been good. She’s got plenty of talent and maps for a nice run.

Prince Tycoon may have gone a touch hard first-up at The Valley but I thought he was pretty plain late. He did trial well prior, so can bounce back, and there was market support as soon as bookies went up. He has the map in his favour, but looks rock-bottom odds at $3.

Wouldn’t be a total shock if Thorin ran a race at 100/1. Trials have been solid for the new camp and maps to lead here.

Selections:
(3) Madiyya
(8) Al Prancer
(7) Stealth Of Night
(5) Thorin

Suggested bet: Very tricky affair.

Race 2

(3) St Edward and (4) Magick Media maybe lead from (1) Vega For Luck.

Hoping (2) Katsumi Orochi can be right on speed from a better draw. His run was a lot better than it looked at Flemington and his work through the line was solid. He’s still learning his craft and racing greenly, but think he’s the best talent. Soft draw and small field assist.

(5) Mongolian Gobi was six weeks between runs at Bendigo last time out and just a touch plain. Quicker back-up and jump-out between runs should have him at his peak. His debut win was excellent.

St Edward should get a nice run on speed. He was held up at a crucial stage at The Valley last time out and suspect he will be in the first two here.

(7) Caffettiera will be in this a long way but she did plenty of favours at Mornington when winning first up.

Selections:
(2) Katsumi Orochi
(5) Mongolian Gobi
(3) St Edward
(7) Caffettiera

Suggested bet: Like Katsumi Orochi. Think he should be clear fave, and he isn’t.

Race 3

Good speed. (3) Karburan probably leads. (7) Hot Too Go on speed with (9) Mickio and (11) Salsita.

(5) Budjik Boy is on trial at the trip but he’s racing like it will suit. He’s in great form and whilst this looks a rise in grade, his recent ratings have him measure up. He’s drawn to get a soft run in behind the speed and he has no issue taking runs inside of horses, which he may have to do here. Seems a big price.

Hot Too Go is on the quick back-up from Caulfield last week. He will give a sight on speed, but the end of 2500m might test him out.

(6) Black Peppermint looks ready now fourth up and is suited back on top of the ground after battling through sloppy conditions at Sale last start. 2500m looks no issue and he’s drawn to get a reasonable run midfield, one off the fence.

Selections:
(5) Budjik Boy
(7) Hot Too Go
(6) Black Peppermint
(3) Karburan

Suggested bet: Not hugely interested, could have a small ticket E/W Budjik Boy at $17.

Race 4

(7) Grid Girl led and won at Kyneton last time out; expect them to adopt similar tactics here. (1) Keep Your Cool probably comes across from the deep. Doesn’t look a huge amount of speed.

(2) Merrigold is on the seven day back-up rising from 1200m to 1400m, a receipt she used to good effect when winning the Gold Distaff on an eight day back-up at the end of last campaign. Completely forget she went around last weekend, she got a mile out of her ground and layed in up the straight. Her first-up run at Caulfield was awesome. She draws well and from good gates at 1400m in the past she has been able to settle right on speed. Think she’s over the odds at $13.

Grid Girl may have come back a better mare this time in. Concede she clearly got through the heavy ground well first up at Kyneton and this is stronger, but she’s going to lead and likely get all the favours on speed.

(5) Gumdrops has been racing well against stronger opposition. Gets in well under the weight scale here being a 90-rater in a SWP event. The knock is the map – she will likely spot them a start.

Both Keep Your Cool and (4) Ahha Ahha have chances, too, in an even race.

Selections:
(2) Merrigold
(7) Grid Girl
(5) Gumdrops
(4) Ahha Ahha

Suggested bet: Merrigold 1×3 E/W.

Race 5

Think (1) Acelum, (6) Astral Flame and (3) Chest Of Gold might fight for the lead. (2) Big Sexy right on their hammer.

Big Sexy raced wide without cover in the MCCC Final at Flemington on Oaks Day, sticking on really well to run fourth. Think the race will be a strong form reference going forward and he was terrific behind Guerite – who won the MCCC Final – at Bendigo the start prior. Form and ratings are spot on for this race and he maps well. Deserves to be favourite.

If they can make ground at all then (4) Yes I Know will be strong late. Talented galloper who was huge on debut at Sale first up last campaign before going bang-bang with successive wins at Geelong. Love his recent jump-outs. If Saturday’s not the day he will be winning races this campaign.

Astral Flame didn’t go a yard on very heavy ground at Pakenham last start. Beter suited on top of the ground and maps ideally.

(9) Casino Showgirl was excellent in Adelaide last time out. This is harder but she has plenty of upside.

Selections:
(2) Big Sexy
(4) Yes I Know
(6) Astral Flame
(9) Casino Showgirl

Suggested bet: Was keen to back both Big Sexy and Yes I Know in early markets but the latter now rock bottom odds after being $12 into $5.

Race 6

Not huge speed. Maybe (9) Texas Tea handy along with (2) Amberite who can be handier up in trip.

Was keen on Howlin’ Rain so his scratching has removed my enthusiasm for this race.

Amberite didn’t have much luck at Flemington on Stakes Day. That was a mile – he’s much better suited at 2000m – and he can push forward and race on speed. The knock is his best form is on rain-affected going, but can definitely understand the early market support.

(5) Shockletz was a little flattered by the pattern at Sandown first up. Leaders were absolutely smashed by a brutal headwind with the majority of winners having cover, as Shockletz did. She was a touch plain at Flemington last start and off that it’d be hard to dive into $2.50, but she may not have been 100% comfortable inside of horses in the straight. She showed really nice staying promise as a 3yo filly and getting to 2000m is ideal.

(8) Hurry Curry was really good from the tail first up at The Valley and is suited out to 2000m.

Selections:
(2) Amberite
(5) Shockletz
(8) Hurry Curry
(9) Texas Tea

Suggested bet: No bet.

Race 7

(1) Mytemptation may look to roll across for the wide draw, but tricky gate for him. (2) Naval Academy will use gate one to lead. Not a lot of speed for a 1200m race.

Would love to see (9) Let’sfacethemusic right there on speed. He got quite keen in behind them at Bendigo fresh and then raced in restricted room at the top of the straight – the run was better than it looked. He trialled brilliantly leading into that fresh run and his best ratings have him right in the finish of this.

(4) Hearcomesthestar is going to get all the favours from gate three. She trialled well before weakening the final 200m fresh at Flemington. She generally improves second up and with an ideal map can run well at odds.

(3) Stoli Bolli is consistent and will again run well – but he’s had his chances in recent runs and just can’t put a race away. This isn’t the best setup he’s had in recent starts but he does get the blinkers on for the first time – which could be key.

Naval Academy has to concede weight to Stoli Bolli from their clash at Geelong two back but has the map/likely pattern in favour. Nice jump-out since – looks ready to roll.

Mytemptation can win with a good ride from the wide draw.

Selections:
(9) Let’sfacethemusic
(4) Hearcomesthestar
(3) Stoli Bolli
(2) Naval Academy

Suggested bet: Something Let’sfacethemusic, small spec Hearcomesthestar.

Race 8

Last five winners have been 11th, 8th, 9th, 8th, 1st in the run.

Bit of speed has come out of the race with El Rocko’s scratching. (9) Jennilala, (3) Air Assault, (13) Statuario, (8) Charterhouse look the speed.

(15) Sabaj has always shown immense talent. He was impressive early days in Adelaide. He has now had two starts for Mick Price and Michael Kent Jnr. He should have finished much closer in the Silver Eagle first up. Granted he got to the right part of the track at Flemington last start but he also relished a strong tempo. Provided they go hard enough, he is the horse to beat.

(3) Air Assault is looking to go one better in the race after running second to Globe last start. He comes into this off a career best rating in Adelaide last start. He comes out of a fast run race last start so the early pressure here shouldn’t pose any concern.

The best roughie is (10) Bank Maur. This looks a set play with him. Ben Melham has ridden him once for a win, incidentally that was also first up at Cranbourne, albeit in a weaker race. He’s drawn sticky but the field should break up.

(6) Holymanz ran well first up at Flemington in a race won by (1) Warnie that also featured (14) Enxuto, (2) Steparty and Regal Zeus. He should strip much fitter here and can be more forward in the run.

Enxuto was luckless in that same race before being overpowered late in the Chester Manifold on a five day back-up. He gets the softest run you’ve seen attempting to give Robbie Griffiths another hometown Cup.

The race certainly doesn’t end there.

Selections:
(15) Sabaj
(10) Bank Maur
(4) Air Assault
(6) Holymanz

Suggested bet: Provided they can make ground can back Sabaj, think Bank Maur is one of the better roughies on the card.

Race 9

(2) Jigsaw should lead reasonable comfortably. (5) Zou Sensation settles second. (8) Hedged and (9) Klabel next in line.

Jigsaw is in career best form and he gets an ideal map. Loves it here at Cranbourne, Logan Bates knows him well and his recent ratings are strong enough to be winning this. He looks a huge price at $9.

(6) Need Some Luck comes off a dominant heavy track win (best last 600/400m splits of the meeting) but is just as effective on top of the ground. He won under hands and heels there – it was a terrific win. Trials prior to that fresh win suggested he had come back in excellent order, and indeed he has. He’s only once unplaced from 11 goes at 1200m and the wide draws is no issue as he needs time to balance up early and clean air late.

Hard to have Hedged as favourite. Yes, he was unlucky last week, but this is a stronger race and he’s a big query at 1200m. Positives are he’s racing well and maps for a perfect run in transit.

Zou Sensation is going to get his chance up on speed. Best recent form is at 1400m but don’t think the drop back to 1200m is a negative.

Selections:
(2) Jigsaw
(6) Need Some Luck
(5) Zou Sensation
(8) Hedged

Suggested bet: Backing Jigsaw for the bigger result, also sending Need Some Luck around a winner – think they should be favourite and second favourite.

Race 10

(9) Biancelli has only managed three runs in her two racing campaigns but she has shown good talent and remains unbeaten. This is her stiffest test to date, but she trialled well, she maps to sit on speed without doing any work and her ratings from each of her three runs have her right in the mix here. Always been a fan of her work and think she’s slightly over the odds at $5 fresh.

(12) Manhattan Thunder ripped home from last against the pattern of the night this track over 955m last start. He produced the best last 600/400/200m splits of the meeting there, continuing his good Cranbourne form. He will spot them a big start but can fly at them late.

(13) Celerity is an interesting runner. She has had barrier issues in the past, including getting quite stirred up behind the gates, and she can have a habit of missing the kick. She has been just ‘fair’ to begin in her two jump-outs since joining the Maher team and sports the blindfold here for the first time. Carleen Hefel has been on board in both jump-outs so she should know the horse well. She wouldn’t want to miss the kick off gate two as she could end up buried. Best is good enough and trials have been solid but well found.

Selections:
(9) Biancelli
(12) Manhattan Thunder
(13) Celerity
(4) Harry Got Styles

Suggested bet: If pushed, Biancelli/Manhattan Thunder – but tricky end to the meeting.