Summary of Best bets:
Suggested bet: Race 2 No.1 Act Natural – Has been a hard follow but finds an easier maiden to get every chance
Suggested bet: Race 3 No.7 Flaming Eyes – Ran well in a stronger metro maiden last start, should find this easier
Best bet: Race 5 No.2 – Continues to hit the line strongly, gets a look at a suitable 1400m trip
Turf Talk:
- Racing on the inner Parks track here today
- The track looks likely to be a Good 4 rating for the entirety of the meeting with clear and warm conditions forecast
- The rail will be +9m 1000m to WP, +6m remainder. Sectional 612m as it was at the previous meeting here on the 6th of December
- At the previous meeting this track played very fairly with no leaders bias and winners generally came from lanes 5–10 in the straight. Expect it will be even again but be wary of the potential of a leader bias as that is generally how this track can be
Key Stats:
- Stuart Gower has been in good form recently and has 3 runners accepted on this program. In his last 100 runners, he has produced 15 winners at a POT of +56.2%
- Apprentice rider Caitlin Tootell continues to make good use of her claim. She has ridden 18 winners in her last 100 starts with a POT return of +49.4%. Her POT at this Morphettville Parks track is also a positive +32.4%
Race 1
Majority of these runners meet again after meeting in a recent race at Gawler. Violet Lovebug was the winner of that race and won easily by a 2L margin softly. He was first up that day and could have improvement fitter now, looks hard for rivals to turn the tables on him. His main danger appears to be Act Of Treachery who brings a different form line here having won on debut at Murray Bridge. It was a big effort to hold tough there which may have taken some out of her, but she gets in well at the weights here. Dameli looked to have had every chance last start in the run but didn’t give much late, her form previous to that was much better so she could bounce back. Breakfast didn’t show a lot last time out fading in the run and looks a chance to improve dropping back to the 1000m trip.
(1) Violet Lovebug
(3) Act Of Treachery
(4) Dameli
(5) Breakfast
Suggested bet: No bet
Race 2
Surely it has to be the day for Act Natural who has been a tough follow for punters having run into the placings in all of his 11 career runs and yet to salute. He meets an easier field here today than what he has contested in his last few starts, if he can run up to the level he has been in the stronger maidens recently, he should be hard to beat. Illustrates was well supported two starts ago and ran into 2nd, she then contested a stronger level maiden to finish midfield, can bounce back in this against easier company. Pretty Morsel has run into the placings in her last two starts and that looks good form for this, but she needs to overcome a sticky race map from a wide barrier. Royolo draws a low barrier and looks a likely leader, with a light weight on her back she could threaten here.
(1) Act Natural
(8) Illustrates
(9) Pretty Morsel
(10) Royolo
Suggested bet: (1) Act Natural (Win)
Race 3
Flaming Eyes has had a lot of chances in his career to break his maiden but has still been running well in stronger rated maidens including a strong race last start. He will be suited in an easier level race and rates highly in this field. Moussaka improved to run into the placings second up and looks likely to be an improver fitter again now and rising up in distance. Terminal Shock was well in the market last time but perhaps left herself a bit too much to do late. Her recent form is good enough to win at this level but she will need to overcome a wide barrier. She’s The Rumour showed good improvement when rising in trip last start, and another rise in distance here should suit again.
(7) Flaming Eyes
(4) Moussaka
(10) Terminal Shock
(8) She’s The Rumour
Suggested bet: (7) Flaming Eyes (Win)
Race 4
So Polite broke through for her maiden victory last time out having run into the placings prior. She won impressively and those maiden runs have rated quite highly, she can go on with it now and rise through the grades. De Luca has mixed form of late but dropping slightly in grade here could bring improvement. Purfect Line drops in grade from the races he contested last prep, his recent trial runs looked solid and he has performed well first up previously. Santasia maps to be prominent in the run and should be fitter second up which could see her improve.
(5) So Polite
(8) De Luca
(1) Purfect Line
(3) Santasia
Suggested bet: No bet
Race 5
Creek has been a tough follow for punters recently, but surely today has to be the day for him with the rise up in distance and slight drop in grade. This setup should give him every chance if he is genuine. Speedtail drops in grade from recent metro runs and has performed well at the Parks track previously, giving him an ideal setup. Sea Of Lights was well in the market last start and looked to be coming on in the straight before fading, dropping back to 1400m should suit. All Too Mysti was disappointing last start but peaks in fitness here, with the rise to 1400m and drop in grade offering improvement.
(2) Creek
(1) Speedtail
(7) Sea Of Lights
(5) All Too Mysti
Suggested bet: (2) Creek (Win)
Race 6
Black Bugatti was an impressive winner when making his debut for the new stable. He needs to improve again to rise through the grades but gets a race map that should see him in a good position along with a handy 3kg claim. See Ya Later Baby has been well supported in two runs this prep but is yet to win, rising in distance may suit him here. Trantoro drops in grade and gets an ideal race map from barrier three, expect improvement with this setup. Revolution Belle hit the line well last start for a close third and rising slightly in trip should suit.
(1) Black Bugatti
(4) See Ya Later Baby
(9) Trantoro
(10) Revolution Belle
Suggested bet: No bet
