Summary of best bets:
Best bet Race 3 No.6 Vintage Star – Strong run last time, better suited slightly back in trip
Value Bet Race 7 No.3 Autumn Frost – In winning form, needs luck from a wide barrier but value there to risk
Suggested bet Race 10 No.15 Make Me A Star – Ran on well last week, can be strong again late with a light weight
Turf Talk:
- Again, racing on the Morphettville Parks track, and the rail will be pushed out further again than last week and will be +9m 1000m to WP, +6m remainder. Sectional 612m
- Expecting clear conditions race day and expect the meeting starts on a Good 4, generally with the rail out in this position and in good conditions, the advantage is to be on speed
Key Stats:
- Caitlin Jones gets some handy rides from the strong Stokes & Jolly stables here today. She has given punters a POT of +26.6% in her last 100 rides and has a POT of +24.3% here on the course proper track
- Andrew Gluyas brings a strong team to this meeting including the favourite in the feature Watchme Win. The stable’s recent form has been good with a winning strike rate of 17% at a POT of +9.5% in their last 100 starters
Race 1
Competitive start to the meeting.
(1) Komachi has been consistent this prep and strong through the line last start which suggests he is well placed to attack the 1800m. Has to carry a big weight but is down in grade.
(3) Falaise has been in good form winning 3 of his last 5 starts and is on the back up having won over this trip last week. This is a step up in grade today which will be the test.
(6) Capulet maps as the likely leader of the race and has a light weight on his back after an apprentice claim, if given a soft run out in front he could prove hard to catch.
(8) Isuspectjeu looks likely to appreciate a rise in distance here today, she has to rise in grade here but after an apprentice claim, she will have a very light weight to carry which could see her be strong late.
Selections:
(1) Komachi
(3) Falaise
(6) Capulet
(8) Isuspectjeu
Suggested bet: No bet, track pattern will play a big part in this race so happy to stay away from race 1
Race 2
(4) Kirkliston Blu jumps up in distance quickly having gone around over the 1800m trip last week. The 2500m looks a much more suitable distance for him and with a positive race map he should be in this race for a long way.
(7) Thinkingnintynine comes out of the same race last week as the race favourite and was strong through the line. He will race up on speed but can’t afford to be going too hard out in front over this longer distance.
(1) Lodbrok is making his debut for a new stable today, his Victorian form has been in stronger races than this and he is proven out at this distance range.
(2) Grinzinger Bishop easily beat some key rivals he meets again here today and is in good form. He has a heavier weight today and a wide barrier which present a different challenge for him today.
Selections:
(4) Kirkliston Blu
(7) Thinkingnintynine
(1) Lodbrok
(2) Grinzinger Bishop
Suggested bet: No bet, the recent form of most of these makes it tough to have full confidence.
Race 3
(6) Vintage Star was tough in his last start when sticking on well over the 1200m trip, he drops back to the 1050m trip here today which perhaps will suit better and the race map sets up well for him given it looks likely this race will have a quick tempo in it early.
(3) Skipjack resumes for a new stable today and performed well when 1st up into a prep previously (3:2-0-1). His recent trial efforts were solid as well. That suggests he can perform well here fresh.
(7) Bristler likes to race up on speed and looks to get to the leading position softly from barrier 1. He should be better suited today dropping slightly in grade and could prove hard to catch if he can control the tempo of this race.
(4) Howl has a good turn of foot late in races so will be suited if they go quickly out in front, and has a good record at this track/distance that appeals.
Selections:
(6) Vintage Star
(3) Skipjack
(7) Bristler
(4) Howl
Suggested bet: (6) Vintage Star (Win)
Race 4
Leaning the way of runners with race experience here for this even betting Maiden.
(6) Wine Snob was solid on debut when running home for 2nd. He gets a good race map here from a low barrier and rising up to the 1200m looks likely to suit.
(10) Oui Oui Ma Cherie was disappointing during her last prep after she was competitive in much stronger races prior to that. Fresh for this today, she can be an improver if she can find that form she was producing earlier in the year.
(1) Navy Rok makes his debut here, he looked solid in a recent trial at Balaklava and the stable have had a good recent record with their debutant runners, expecting a strong showing here fresh.
(2) Regal Ripper looks the likely leader of the race based off his recent runs, he could prove hard to catch if given a soft run out in front.
Selections:
(6) Wine Snob
(10) Oui Oui Ma Cherie
(1) Navy Rok
(2) Regal Ripper
Suggested bet: No bet, looks a very open Maiden level race.
Race 5
Looks to be some good value for (6) Torpedoes who was well in the market when on debut off the back of some handy trial form, but disappointed to finish midfield after leading the race. He can find a level of improvement for that experience and gets race map favours if he can show the same early speed.
(12) Yellowjacket has been an eye catcher from the back in both of her runs back in Victoria. She draws wide again so looks likely to be back in the running which feels like the small risk at her current short price.
(8) Dirty Old Town has run into the placings in both of her career runs to date, she is drawn wide as well but does have a bit of early speed so if she can cross and find a position she looks much better placed.
(10) Kocian looks the best of the runners who make their debuts in this race, her recent trial win at Balaklava was good so expect a solid performance here fresh.
Selections:
(6) Torpedoes
(12) Yellowjacket
(8) Dirty Old Town
(10) Kocian
Suggested bet: No bet, how this track is playing looks key
Race 6
(6) Thunder Shoc drops in grade here today after two competitive runs in harder races recently. The last time she contested this grade she was a winner so looks suited at this level. The wider barrier makes her run early a little tricky but if she can find cover she should get every chance late.
(11) Light The Night looks to rise in grade having won her maiden easily in her last start. She is light at the weights again so should be hitting the line strongly late.
(3) Santastico maps well from the inside barrier and could land up on speed in a race that looks likely to be run at a moderate tempo. If he lands in a good position early in the run, he sets up well.
(1) Texan Windstorm drops slightly in grade today. He rates highly at this level but will have to carry a big weight because of that. He maps to be forwards and if the race is run slowly, he can potentially control the race tempo which will help him manage the bigger weight.
Selections:
(6) Thunder Shoc
(11) Light The Night
(3) Santastico
(1) Texan Windstorm
Suggested bet: No bet, the race map looks tricky enough to have full confidence.
Race 7
(3) Autumn Frost comes into this race off a freshen up. Last time he was at the races he was an impressive winner defeating Swiftie Harriet who went on to frank the form with a pair of handy runs in Victoria. He needs luck from the wide barrier, but the recent form is good so worth a play at the value if the luck does eventuate for him.
(5) Florey impressed in his resuming run with a solid win. This is a step up in grade but if he can find any level of improvement from that last start it lands him well in this race.
(4) Fluttering Ruby continues to impress having won 2/2 so far in her career. She is in good form and looks likely to get run of the race up on speed from a low barrier, could take catching.
(2) World’s My Oyster brings in some different form lines across the border in Victoria. He was a winner fresh last prep and gets a good race map from barrier 2.
Selections:
(3) Autumn Frost
(5) Florey
(4) Fluttering Ruby
(2) World’s My Oyster
Suggested bet: (3) Autumn Frost (Each way)
Race 8
The recent form of (2) Watchme Win has been stronger than what it reads on paper having contested some much stronger races in his last few runs. He looks better suited returning to his home state and meets a slightly easier field here today. He will get a good run from the low barrier so expecting improvement.
(1) Chicago Storm was a winner two starts ago and got very little luck last time out when finishing 2nd. His recent form in these local sprint races has been good and he should settle in a good position in run from barrier 2, can continue.
(4) Prairie Flower was within a length of winning a Listed race at Caulfield last start producing a quick finish to nearly run over the top of them. That form reads well and an even track here today will suit.
(5) Grinzinger Price held his own in a stronger race in Victoria last start, getting back to his home state today should better suit him.
Selections:
(2) Watchme Win
(1) Chicago Storm
(4) Prairie Flower
(5) Grinzinger Prince
Suggested bet: No bet, tough to split a few of these given they all look in solid form recently.
Race 9
Early market moves for (7) Mic Drop catch your attention as he is here on debut for a new stable. His previous NSW form lines look very good for a race of this level and his recent trial form has also been solid. He looks well placed for a solid run here fresh.
(2) Mintulee is a last start winner who has plenty of early speed and will likely be out on front early from barrier 1.
(4) Beauty Bound can be an improver fitter 3rd up here today. She looks likely to get back from the wide barrier but in a race that is likely set up to be run quickly early, she could be running over the top of the field late.
(12) Smashing Action wouldn’t surprise at big odds in this race. She has been a winner 1st up into a prep previously and looks very good winning a recent trial, can surprise fresh in the prep.
Selections:
(7) Mic Drop
(2) Mintulee
(4) Beauty Bound
(12) Smashing Action
Suggested bet: No bet, early price of Mic Drop has gone now, looking to bet late if she drifts a little
Race 10
(15) Make Me A Star was a winner to leave Maiden grade two starts ago before a solid effort to place behind the inform Cielao last start. She appears well set up in this race with a light weight on her back after the apprentice claim and a rise in distance is expected to suit.
(6) Chur Nibble won at a short price last start over the 1600m distance. He again maps softly and should be suited to see out the trip strongly again here, can rise through the grades with the right run.
(2) Full Of Courage was strong through the line last week over the 1600m but left himself too much to do late. He will be back in the run again from a wide barrier but with a lighter weight today, may be slightly stronger late in the run.
(1) Mellifluent will need some luck from an ugly barrier, but is dropping slightly in grade from his previous two runs. He has won at this track/distance previously so with some luck early he can be around the mark at this level.
Selections:
(15) Make Me A Star
(6) Chur Nibble
(2) Full Of Courage
(1) Mellifluent
Suggested bet: (15) Make Me A Star (Win)
