Betsy’s Set: Morphettville Wednesday

Betsy’s Best

Turf Talk:

• Similar conditions expected for this meeting as the two August course proper meetings with the rail out and a Soft 6 or 7 likely.
• Expect runners to come wide in the straight.
• Rail: +10m 1200m-400m, +7m 400m-W/Post & +6m remainder.

Stats That Matter: 

• Across the two August course proper meetings, winning lanes in the straight ranged 6-26 with a median of 9.
• Murray Bridge trainer Garret Lynch has strong returns at Morphettville with an 11.2% win strike rate and 56.4% profit on turnover.

Race 1 – 9. Oh Lovey No 5. Youbeeforty 3. Mcleod 8. Grinzinger Joy

(9) Oh Lovey No has looked close to a breakthrough win in recent races, placing in her last three starts. She maps well again and carries a light weight after the apprentice claim. The one to beat but the price is not appealing. (5) Youbeeforty finished one length behind (9) Oh Lovey No last start and could get a softer on-speed run, which may bring improvement. (3) Mcleod has shown better form previously than his last two runs. Back up to 2000m, where he has two placings from three starts, could spark improvement. (8) Grinzinger Joy looks likely to appreciate rising to a staying trip for the first time in her career.
Suggested Bet – No Bet

Race 2 – 7. Ruled By Thieves 3. Dapper Don 4. Malarkey 8. The Cosmic One

(7) Ruled By Thieves was backed off the map last start after an impressive finish two runs back. Got caught wide again last time and didn’t finish off as expected, but looks better suited to a midweek maiden. The lower barrier may help. (3) Dapper Don maps to be on speed with a light weight. Can mix form, but his best is good enough to break through. (4) Malarkey showed gradual improvement across three runs last prep and could be an improver again resuming for his second campaign. (8) THE COSMIC ONE makes his debut off the back of an impressive trial win, may need luck from out wide but looks the best of those on debut.
Suggested Bet – No Bet

Race 3 – 4. Percidian 11. Covert Witness 8. Balistique 2. Donam

(4) Percidian had genuine excuses last start when finishing well out the back, so that run can be forgiven. With key gear changes today and a drop in grade, he can bounce back. (11) Covert Witness doesn’t win often but may benefit from dropping in grade. She maps for a favourable run with a light weight. (8) Balistique looks suited third-up and fitter. The inside draw may allow her to settle closer. (2) Donam has been freshened since his last start win and is capable of finishing strongly if the tempo is solid.
Suggested Bet – (4) Percidian (Win)

Race 4 – 1. Eight On The Dot 2. United Legend 3. Fioreen 10. Bush Inference

(1) EIGHT ON THE DOT comes out of a higher rated race last time and this should be a much easier assignment than what he faced that day. (1) EIGHT ON THE DOT has been a consistent runner of late but will have a big weight to carry. (2) UNITED LEGEND has been in good form having won recently and is lightly raced, expect him to be suited up in trip. (3) FIOREEN is a last start winner who can take the step up slightly in grade now in suitable conditions. (10) BUSH INFERENCE was well supported last start but got caught in an awkward position in run, he maps to get a softer run today if he is positive from the inside barrier.

Suggested Bet – No Bet

Race 5 – 6. Dodd 3. Articulating 4. Immortal Shield 9. Prince Kuro

(6) Dodd hasn’t had much luck in recent runs but is certainly talented. The wide barrier may actually suit if the track is playing off the rail as expected. (3) Articulating can improve second-up but is untested on wet ground, which is the main query. (4) Immortal Shield placed last week and will appreciate the wet track. (9) Prince Kuro was well supported and ran well last week in a similar race, and maps for a softer run today.
Suggested Bet – No Bet

Race 6 – 11. Morlaix 2. High Tor 3. Lapilli 7. Startide

Resuming (11) Morlaix only has one career win, but it was first-up over 1200m, the same setup she faces today. She can mix form but has shown talent in stronger races. (2) High Tor makes his stable debut after contesting higher grade races in Victoria, and may be better suited here. (3) Lapilli has hit the line well enough in two runs this prep to suggest 1200m should suit, though she prefers drier ground. (7) Startide ran strongly into the placings last start and looks an improver third-up, especially on wet ground.
Suggested Bet – No Bet

Race 7 – 3. Break The Taboo 14. Tametomo 6. Spelman 8. Fantastic Host

(3) Break The Taboo was well supported last start but faded after leading, and may not have been suited in that role. His previous win beating Anthricite was impressive, and he can bounce back in this grade. (14) Tametomo should be better suited back in trip with a light weight after the claim. (6) Spelman broke through for a win last time out and handles wet tracks. (8) Fantastic Host was well supported last start but didn’t get the right run; the wide draw may not be a disadvantage by this stage of the day.
Suggested Bet – (3) Break The Taboo (Win)